Under The Knife 4/6/22

Almost There

Here we are, just ahead of Opening Day. It’s a week late, but given where we were a couple months back, I’ll take it. For me - and I know many of you as well - this is where we emerge from the dark of winter and back to a world where baseball is part of the day. We made it, no help from Rob Manfred, and we ready ourselves for the season with a look at the injuries before things get real. First, let’s continue the tradition and remind everyone saying the game is dying that baseball is still here for a very good reason …

Now, let’s get to the injuries:

JACOB DEGROM, SP NYM (fractured scapula)

Jacob deGrom has a stress reaction in his scapula. I was able to confirm it was in the area nearest the rotator cuff tendon, which tells us this is a deceleration issue. Normally, the cuff or shoulder capsule is the weak point, but at high forces, sometimes strange things happen with where the body is positioned at the time the force comes through an area.

I did hear a national writer say on TV that deGrom would be fine “if it heals.” People accuse me of being flip when I say “bone heals,” but in this case, think back and tell me the last time you knew someone or even of a situation where a bone didn’t heal. Little Timmy falls off his skateboard and no one goes “oh god, he could lose his arm.” Instead, they take him to the emergency room, get it set, and he barely misses a day of school.

I’m not minimizing deGrom’s injury. The biomechanical forces have clearly been more than deGrom’s body can handle, breaking down from weak link to weak link along the way, yet managing to avoid a truly catastrophic injury while also managing not to fix the root problem(s).

MAX SCHERZER, SP NYM (strained hamstring)

Max Scherzer tested his hamstring in a side session, done under top secret conditions. He threw in an inside area off a turf mound with attendance extremely limited, including his own teammates. Things went well enough that Scherzer is expected to play this week, likely on Friday, weather permitting. Given that weather, I’d say Scherzer being held back is not out of the question and pretty smart. Any chance of stop-start or even poor mound conditions would likely delay things. I’m not sure how the Mets would deal with that, but the extended roster puts a lot of options on the table.

A Mets source tells me Scherzer’s hamstring strain was mild and in the belly of the muscle. The team used ultrasound rather than an MRI, but is comfortable with letting Scherzer do his side work and that mound session, which was at full-go. There’s always the chance that there’s a recurrence given that the muscle likely isn’t fully healed just yet, but the hope is that Scherzer’s adrenaline doesn’t get too involved in his first start.

TAIJUAN WALKER, SP NYM (inflamed knee)

Wait, another Mets pitching injury? This isn’t unexpected, but having soreness in Taijuan Walker’s surgically repaired knee is problematic in terms of depth if nothing else. While no one expects Walker to be out long term, the fact that he had to come out of a game early due to soreness indicates this isn’t 100 percent and could create the same sorts of issues, plus pressure on the long men and bullpen usage.

Walker had a minor procedure to debride a tendon in his knee. At age-29, Walker’s problem with tendonosis isn’t a good sign for his long term prospects, but there’s no reason to think the problem will cause a rapid decline. This will come down to maintenance and finding a routine that keeps Walker’s knees from taking too much of the stress. The Mets haven’t been good with these types of situations in the past.

As you can tell from the video, the problem wasn’t there or serious just a few days ago, so was this just one wrong step, an accumulation of stress, or something else? Only the medical staff knows at this point and all we’ll really see from out here is the results. I’m watching to see how quickly Walker can get back on cycle, even if that’s just long toss. Travel and weather might make that tougher and more teams are doing work like this behind closed doors.

One thing Buck Showalter always had in previous stops was an Athletic Trainer with tenure, experience, and trust. The Mets have a two-man staff who have been there through four tough years. I’m very curious to see how Showalter manages this and just how much of a voice he’ll have, coming in with a lot of pre-existing roles still in place rather than “his guys.”

CHRIS SALE, SP BOS (fractured rib)

The Red Sox shifted Chris Sale to the 60-day in a bit of a surprise. Given the late move and talk of him throwing again, many expected the 10-day with an eye on May. Instead, we may see the Sox acknowledging that Sale will need a longer ramp. There’s some discussion of “saving” Sale and that the deeper April rosters make him less necessary, but Sale wasn’t likely to pitch much in April even if the Sox got aggressive.

Sale’s fractured rib, along with his long return from early 2020 Tommy John surgery and the various complications he had along the way, certainly hold some expectations on innings and endurance back, though Sale hasn’t shown any loss of stuff in his limited innings. Pretty much everything aside from a slight drop in K rate is within range of his standards.

Most of Sale’s value is dependent on his availability. ZIPS has him in a slight decline over the next three seasons - reasonable given his age and history - but it’s slight and from a very low base. If he could go 150 innings, it would be higher, but that’s almost out of the question given a June start. How the Red Sox can deploy him is key and how they handled it last year should give some confidence.

RONALD ACUNA JR, OF/DH ATL (post-ACL reconstruction)

Ronald Acuna Jr. will start the year on the IL because … well, no one I’ve been able to talk to could give me a solid answer. Let’s chalk it up to conservative care or even using the ability to give him a little more time to make roster decisions. (I always find these late spring delays problematic. You knew when spring training would end. It’s not that hard to make decisions!)

Acuna is on the 10-day, though I couldn’t confirm that was a retro. Regardless, I think Acuna comes back as a DH during the Braves’ second homestand and as we’ve seen in his spring work, I don’t anticipate any problems. This timeline for return from ACL is not aggressive, even though it’s more unusual to have this injury in baseball than football or basketball. The surgery and rehab is the same, though the demands, especially in terms of rotation is different, but not necessarily worse. The Braves medical staff seems like this is a plan, so we’ll have to ride along and watch.

One other reminder - I’ve had more than one scout tell me that little brother Luisangel Acuna is the more talented one. That certainly remains to be seen, but he’ll start his age-20 campaign at High-A Hickory in the Rangers organization. That’s when Ronald made his full-season debut and it would take one heck of a leap to even get a late-season callup for Luisangel. Worth watching.

RILEY GREENE, OF DET (fractured foot)

Riley Greene appeared to have made the Tigers before he fractured his foot on Friday. Instead of being a ROY candidate, he’s on the MiLB 7-day IL, he’s out for six weeks or more, and the Tigers made an aggressive trade for Austin Meadows. Part of this is roster rules. By putting him on the MiLB IL, he doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster.

The Tigers haven’t said which bone, nor have I been able to find out, but all statements have implied this is a simple fracture. Normally, it would take six weeks for him to be back hitting - probably with a better ankle guard - and then his path will likely start low, perhaps Lakeland in XST and then working his way up to Toledo. How Meadows, Akil Badoo, and Victor Reyes will have some say in how long he stays down, but Greene’s hitting and fielding will be much more important. When he’s ready again, he’s unlikely to be blocked by any of them.

Players with this type of injury seldom have major issues coming back. They’re able to keep up their eye and swing along the way, and getting them ‘back in shape’ is largely going to happen contemporaneous to actually playing. Baseball is not a cardio intensive game and that’s often overstated in terms of when someone can come back.

Quick Cuts:

The Cubs are likely to start with Andrelton Simmons on the IL. He’s not throwing at all, let alone enough to play short over Nico Hoerner … Ian Anderson exited his last spring start but no one is overly worried about it. It was a simple blister on his big toe. Assuming it clears up or they can cover it ahead of his normal side session, he’ll be ready to pitch. At worst, they’ll skip him the first time through the rotation, which shouldn’t be a major issue given off-days (and rainouts) … Zach Wheeler is staying behind in Florida to get some work in. The complex leagues and XST still have value. Wheeler’s shoulder appears ready to go if he makes it well through one more outing … I couldn’t get a straight answer out of anyone about whether Adley Rutschman, starting the year on the IL with a triceps strain, would be eligible for the new bonus pick if he goes ROY. As far as I can tell, Rutschman isn’t on the MLB or MiLB IL, nor is he officially assigned to a team! … Brandon Nimmo had a “cortisone like injection” - not sure what the like is doing there - which could indicate more disc-related issues. Keeping an eye on this … Tommy La Stella is having some issues with his repaired Achilles. That’s not unusual, but it is problematic. The Giants are working hard on this one, but will likely err on the side of caution and hold him out. The 10-day would not surprise me at all … Dellin Betances signed an incentive laden deal with the Dodgers. He’s almost a year post shoulder surgery and we’ll see whether his stuff comes back … When Wander Franco wins the MVP, a lot of coaches will tweet a lot about rocks. Must read stuff from Travis Sawchik … The Jose Ramirez extension is still team-friendly and done without involvement from potential new ownership. The question now is whether the Guardians will make more moves once they lock in the new money, or whether that deal falls apart and Dolan sheds more payroll (and potential payroll) at the ASB … Theo Epstein is still behind the scenes and while Rob Manfred has held his job for now, I wouldn’t say he’s saved it either.

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