Let’s stipulate a couple things. First, I don’t know that torpedo bats are a thing. Second, I do know that the Yankee offense isn’t going to go at this pace for the entire campaign, even if the torpedo bat is a thing. Third, I know that replacement players are seldom a simple one-for-one swap.
However, if we accept all of this for the purposes of this introduction, then we can make some things work. The Yankees are currently putting up a 209 OPS+. That’s not just good — it’s arcade mode. And yes, it’s unsustainable unless they’ve been secretly issued torpedo bats that came from Area 51. With 41 runs scored in the first full week, that’s a pace of something north of 1,600 runs with the ‘31 Yanks holding the record for nearly a century at 1,067. If the Yankees offense isn’t historic, it sure looks to be pretty good.
Which makes the injury to Gerrit Cole even more costly. Depending on how you look at it, Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco are in the lineup for Cole and Clarke Schmidt. When Schmidt comes back, the lesser of those, however Brian Cashman et al decide, will drop off and the other will be Cole’s “replacement.” ZIPS gave Cole a tidy, believable 2.6 WAR projection—not ace-level vintage, but high-value stability across 150+ innings.. Stroman, with even more starts projected than Cole, is at 1.3. If you go with Carrasco at 0.1, it’s even starker.
We’re looking at one to two wins of difference in a marginal sense, in what should be a tight division. The Yankees won by three games last year and ask an Orioles fan if you think that the injuries they had factored in. With that offense, there’s one argument that the pitching is less important, that they’ll just outscore everyone. The other is that while you’ll win some 20-9 games, there’s more likely to be games where the other team will plate nine and win. Even with a +300 run differential, the win projection doesn't scale linearly — Pythagoras flattens the curve.
I’m not sure if Tom Tango’s old 6/4/2 rule still maps perfectly onto the modern market, but the principle holds: for a team projected in the 90-win range, each marginal win is worth a premium, something like $6 million. That makes every swing, up or down, the kind of thing that moves playoff odds.
Then there's the matter of win volatility, a concept Russell Carleton explored at Baseball Prospectus. In short: aces don’t just prevent runs. They stabilize outcomes. They lower the variance of game states, giving your offense a clearer path to victory and reducing the odds that a nine run outburst goes to waste because the other guy gave up ten.
Aces don’t just win — they keep you from losing stupid. Because you can’t hit your way out of every mess and over 162 games, stupid adds up. At some point, somebody’s got to shove.
Now, let’s get to the injuries
LUIS GARCIA, SP HOU (inflamed elbow)
The Astros aren’t getting Luis Garcia back any time soon and they’re beginning to get a bit of Lance McCullers deja vu. Garcia has been shut down for a month due to inflammation with his elbow, though the exact cause is murky. There’s no structural damage, but listening closely to sources tells me something inside is irritating the elbow, which could be anything from a small bone chip to a hardware problem.
There’s screws and sutures and more in some cases, so even just getting used to that is tough. Breaking in new shoes can give you blisters, so imagine what might be going on inside the elbow if something’s just a bit out of alignment or just happens to rub something or scar up once the elbow is closed and healed. It’s not perfectly predictable and this should be a reminder that while this type of surgery is highly successful, it’s not one hundred percent either.
I’ve talked about the nano-scope here and this is one of those things where it feels like we might be a few years away from being able to define these more clearly. Even the best MRI isn’t super-clear the way a camera is, and the idea that a teeny-tiny scope could not just see in, but fix something like picking out or moving a chip is groundbreaking. The device exists, but adoption in sports is usually first or last. I’m not sure which it will be.
LUCAS GIOLITO, SP BOS (strained hamstring/sprained elbow)
Oh, it’s rehabbing pitcher day at UTK. (Yes, heckler in the back, every day is that here.) Lucas Giolito had his first rehab start on Wednesday and went 51 pitches. It wasn’t the most efficient outing, but he got his work in and reports are that he did well after, which is more important than in-game results. Giolito’s hamstring appears to be healed and the elbow got a bit more time, if that’s worth anything.
Alex Cora told the media that Giolito will have at least two more starts, which matches the plan. 65 and 80 would be the standard progressions and unless something goes wrong (or really right), there’s no reason to adjust from that, especially with a bit of a roster crunch in Boston. Letting Giolito build up does have a cost - he should be better than the player in his slot now - but it’s not a huge cost if it’s one start or so.
I often take heat when I say that teams are taking things too slow, but this is largely because I know that careers are so finite. Every game we miss of Lucas Giolito is a game we don’t get back and he doesn’t either, though an AGM recently pointed out to me that he gets paid regardless. How much he gets paid, if he’s healthy and back to what he could do, is different. But I think it’s more than that. I don’t know Giolito - met him once and he was nice, and funny - but I imagine that 20 years from now, he’ll tell his kids about pitching to Aaron Judge a lot more than he’ll tell stories about the $19m he made in 2025.
Also, that reminds me that Giolito does have a vesting option and bonuses for innings pitched, from 150 to 180 by tens. The upper end might already be out but the 140 inning mark is a difference of $5m on the team option, which seems important to both sides.