Under The Knife 4/23/25
Welcome to the After
Major League Baseball is careening toward a salary cap and the media is riding shotgun. The House v. NCAA settlement has opened the door and MLB owners are ready to walk through it. They've long desired cost certainty, and now, with the help of sympathetic media narratives, they're closer than ever to achieving it.
Commissioner Rob Manfred isn't orchestrating a master plan; he's riding a shifting landscape like he’s Chalamet in Dune 2. He's publicly stoking concerns about payroll disparities, stating, "Disparity should be, it certainly is, at the top of my list of concerns about what's occurring in the sport." But his actions suggest a willingness to let the system fail to justify drastic changes. The Dodgers' $700 million contract with Shohei Ohtani, with most of it deferred, exemplifies the kind of financial maneuvering that exacerbates disparities and fuels calls for a salary cap.
The MLB Players Association, led by Tony Clark, remains steadfast in its opposition to a salary cap. Clark has stated unequivocally, "We're never going to agree to a cap" . But the union is facing an uphill battle. The media, once a neutral observer, has become an active participant in shaping public opinion. By highlighting the spending of teams like the Dodgers and framing it as a problem, the media is laying the groundwork for fans to see a salary cap as a necessary solution.
This isn't just about competitive balance. It's about control. A salary cap would allow owners to limit player salaries and increase their profits. The luxury tax, intended to curb excessive spending, has proven ineffective because some owners don’t mind spending. Winning an auction is a high, whether it’s art or Juan Soto. Some teams absorb the penalties while other teams pocket revenue-sharing checks without reinvesting in their rosters. There may indeed be a revenue disparity, but profits are pretty evenly distributed. Franchise value is still shooting up, especially with the rise of private equity stakes. The system is broken and owners are using that dysfunction to justify a hard cap. And that’s one of the keys. This isn’t an NBA style exception-riddled cap or even the NFL’s more loopholes than an Arthur Anderson audit cap. Manfred’s setting MLB up for a cap so hard, it took six Ro Sparks and went to Coachella’s first weekend.
The media's role in this narrative shift cannot be overstated. By consistently framing the issue as one of fairness and competitive balance, they've made the idea of a salary cap more palatable to the public. This coordinated messaging campaign has effectively turned the media into a partner in the owners' push for a salary cap.
The MLBPA's best move now is to push for a meaningful salary floor, ensuring that all teams invest in their rosters. They must also resist any cap proposals, understanding that once a cap is in place, it's nearly impossible to remove. The union has fought this battle before and must be prepared to do so again, even if it means enduring another lockout. We’ll see just how far that Morgan Stanley/BlackRock investment goes, since they’ll need a win this cycle as well.
In the end, the convergence of owner interests, media narratives, and public perception is creating a perfect storm. If the MLBPA doesn't adapt and counter this coordinated effort, the game as we know it could be irrevocably changed. And with that, let’s get to the injuries:
LUIS ARRAEZ, IF SDP (concussion)
The answer to the question as to why Luis Arraez, or any player in a similar situation, is backboarded, braced, and carted out is simple: because it might be a spinal issue. If there’s any question at all, precautions are taken and not questioned. It takes longer, yes, and was ultimately not necessary, but it’s the smart, safe, scientific thing to do. Many are questioning it, but this shouldn’t change even though some old ex-player was bothered.
As for Arraez, he was placed on the 7-day Concussion IL. That means he was experiencing some symptoms. Concussion care has changed a lot over the last few years, so the fact that he’s been on the bench doesn’t mean he’s symptom-free. The expectation is that Arraez will be back at the minimum, but concussions are notoriously unpredictable so any setback could be a day or a year and no one could really tell. It is a reminder that the MLB Concussion Protocol is roughly the same as the NFL’s much better known policy. You have to be symptom free before returning, which is as it should be.
Once back, Arraez should immediately return to what he is and was. The thing about concussions is that we just don’t know anything. In the short term, most players are fine and there’s no real consequences in any way that we can discern. In the longer term, even small things like this can lead to massive consequences not just for Arraez but his family. Baseball hasn’t had to deal with the fallout like the NFL and NHL, but the number of people dealing with long term brain damage is not zero for MLB players.
Want to see something really cool? This company presented just before NTangible did at Sloan and ended up the winner. That chatbot is an impressive demo and the market need is real. Worth a watch when you have ten minutes:
SPENCER STRIDER, SP ATL (strained hamstring)
The reason Spencer Strider went back on the IL is his arm. Sure, it’s his hamstring that strained, a simple and minor strain that occurred while he was playing catch. One source said he slipped, while another said he overstepped a bit, but regardless, the IL was the move because the Braves don’t want Strider changing his mechanics unconsciously and making things any worse or even different on his arm.
Remember that Strider has spoken on how he’s changed his mechanics and told Travis Sawchik recently that his elbow revision wasn’t due to pitching stress, but a bone chip from the drilled anchor hole. That would be unusual, but not unheard of, at least in terms of debris causing damage, though in most cases, it is merely an exacerbating factor rather than as purely causative as Strider stated.
This is as simple and straight-forward an injury as you’re going to see. It’s a mild strain, the kind that just happen, even on a player in very good physical condition. He’ll miss at or near the minimum from this and should come back with no issues, just a short term red flag. In the meantime, Nathan Wiles will make his debut in Strider’s slot and could get a couple starts in his absence.
More on Yankees good news, Guardians bad news, and a bunch of late breaking injuries that hit the watch list that you’ll want to know about is only for subscribers. It’s five bucks. What else are you going to do with five bucks? It’s like pennies. Those should be banned, but at least with five bucks, you can read UTK every time it comes out and never miss the best injury info.