Under The Knife 4/23/21
Free Friday: Super Seven
Major League Baseball has made a lot of noise about rule changes and experiments, but the biggest one has gotten almost no notice. Seven inning games are now a reality and no one’s really squawked about it. Doubleheaders are rare in baseball, with none scheduled and used only to make things up. The thing is, there are ideas around baseball that are worse, which makes this season’s unnoticed major change a potential Trojan Horse.
I am told by multiple sources that MLB is considering testing a “game clock” in the minors. It didn’t make this year’s experiments, but was considered and is still on the “if this stuff doesn’t speed up the game enough” list. The way it would work is simple - there would be a three hour game clock that starts with first pitch and runs with no stops. A game would end with either nine innings or would finish with the last in-play inning before the clock expired. For instance, if the eighth inning started at 2:59 (or 0:01), they’d play through as a complete game. If they’re in the seventh when the clock runs out, the seventh is the end.
This is a terrible idea in my opinion. Strategy is almost impossible to use when the endpoint is moving. Using the bullpen would be shifted drastically, as would starter usage. “Keep him out one more inning, maybe it’s the last one,” you’d hear a lot in the dugout. Middle relievers would be out of a job, so the Union wouldn’t like it either.
Which makes seven inning games much more palatable. Add in several scheduled double-headers and suddenly there’s more off-days, or the season could be compressed and stay at 162. (Though if you’re cutting innings off games, why not cut games off the season as well?)
Almost all the major records and even some of the milestones would be locked in. Forget 700 homers. 3,000 hits would be harder. 300 wins might be easier, since a starter would only have to go four. Almost all the in-season records, save for averages, would be out of reach. That might be a feature or a bug, depending on your views, but going back to Bud Selig’s Bonds-hate, you can see why keeping those might be less problematic.
I’m sure there are positives, but as someone said to me about this, “at some point, it stops being baseball.” Whether it’s seven inning games or a pitch clock, this seems a bridge too far for many. But not for baseball. Maybe we can hope that John Henry learned a lesson from Super League, but I wouldn’t count on it.
On to the injuries. As always with Free Friday, most of these are recaps, but there are updates with many of them, plus new info in there, so don’t just delete this, you cool paid subscribers. I’d also invite everyone to subscribe and get everything into your inbox all week long.
Dinelson Lamet SP SDP (strained forearm)
I’m going to pick on my pal Craig Elsten a bit because I know he can take it, plus he gave us this tweet, which summed up a lot of San Diego:
Craig’s a fan, and a smart fan at that, but it’s very easy to get emotional and think that because Dinelson Lamet came out early and because the last time he pitched, he had a minor sprain, that this was the same thing. I get it. Add in just how many Tommy Johns this organization has had over the past year and I get it even more, including one this week!
But it wasn’t. Lamet had a tight forearm — and I know, sometimes that’s a precursor to UCL issues, but sometimes, as I think Freud said, a forearm is just a forearm. In his first start back, Lamet had something he felt, told the medical staff, and he came out. Simple, and smart.
The key here is that Lamet trusted the medical and coaching staffs enough to speak up, to not try and push through it. That was built up through months of rehab, especially over the last two months as he’s been slowly and methodically built up. Jayce Tingler said there were “no setbacks, zero” during the rehab and while I don’t know that is 100 percent true, I don’t have any evidence even suggesting the contrary.
The tight forearm isn’t good and Lamet is heading to the IL, but the Padres think he’ll be back at the minimum. That could change, of course, but right now, the Padres have a better handle on it than most. Hitting the panic button is easy, but doing an evidence based rehab program isn’t easy at all. (Sorry, Craig. Next 3 Punks beer is on me.)
Mookie Betts OF LAD (bruised arm)
Mookie Betts and the Dodgers got lucky. Betts did not fracture his arm and instead just has a nasty bruise. He’s out until that gets more normal, but that could be as soon as Thursday. Considering that even a standard fracture would have cost Betts until mid-June at the earliest, this is definitely a lucky outcome and one that could keep the Dodgers on course when it could have easily been a season changer.
Once back, Betts shouldn’t have much more than some residual soreness and maybe an aversion to getting that tight in the box. Most players go right back to their standard mode and return to their normal level quickly, showing no psychological effects almost as quickly as the physical passes.
I was able to get confirmation from a team source that the team knew moments after the injury, from the in-park X-ray, that Betts did not have a fracture. I get why they didn’t release the info, but it sounds like they knew this when Dave Roberts gave his update after the game, though I couldn’t nail this down. At the same time, the Royals have started letting Nick Kenney, their Head AT, give media briefings. I hope all teams will consider this.
UPDATE: Betts is back! After just one game, Betts was back in the Dodgers lineup. He notably had no additional padding over the area and didn’t seem to have any issues with the arm at bat or in the field.
Cody Bellinger OF LAD (fractured fibula)
Cody Bellinger has a fractured lower leg. Cody Bellinger was running yesterday. Both of these things are true, but for some out there, failure to even try and understand what’s happening led to some weird narrative twists.
What happened was that when Bellinger was cleated a week ago, there was enough force that it damaged the fibula, the smaller of the two bones in the lower leg. At the time, having the cleats cut into him seemed the problem and rightly so. That was treated and some deeper pain was called a strain. Now, this is where things get a bit squirrely, because a strain is a muscular issue. Bruise, I can see, and even after an explanation from a source in the know on this, I don’t see where ‘calf strain’ came in.
After Bellinger continued to have some pain, even after the initial wounds healed, and guided by, of all things, getting off the exam/treatment table, the Dodgers re-did the X-rays and found a very small “hairline fracture.” He was already healing and weight bearing, so the decision was made to essentially not treat the leg, allow Bellinger to continue weight bearing, and limit things that might cause issue. It was well enough that Bellinger has begun to run some, but very limited. If he’d been at home, he may have used the Alter-G but “no one was really worried” about the weight bearing, I’m told.
So what this all comes down to is that the fracture really doesn’t complicate Bellinger’s recovery by much. Maybe a couple days will be added to his IL stint, but only a couple. I’d expect Bellinger back sometime over the weekend or early next week. He’s likely to be relatively normal at that stage as there’s no real way to limit what he’s going to do with his leg, both at bat and in the field.
UPDATE: Bellinger was able to do more running - which is more a light jog - and take batting practice. He’s still not been cleared for more activity, but I’m told the Dodgers hope to see “quick progress” next week. No one there seems to be ruling out a return next week, but they’ll be guided by x-rays and by Bellinger going through the steps.
Shohei Ohtani P/DH LAA (finger blister)
Blisters suck. They’re not fatal though. The Angels’ best pitcher and second best hitter went to the mound on Tuesday after fighting blisters and not healing up completely ahead of this start. The plan was to allow Ohtani to go 75 pitches and get shadowed by Griffin Canning to take the rest. There wasn’t a lot of confidence, with the team deciding not to chance losing the DH entirely if Ohtani came out early.
The plan seems to have worked, with Ohtani working through 80 pitches - so much for the “hard ceiling” Joe Maddon spoke of - and seeming to do so without too much damage. The hard part of this is balancing the need for Ohtani to pitch with not doing damage that will make it hard for him to make his next turn. Add in the complication that he’ll also be hitting on at least a few of the days in between.
There’s really no cure for blisters, though there are hundreds of folk remedies, from things that work like Stan’s Rodeo Cream to things like pickle juice and urine that … umm, let’s not, ok? Ohtani’s case is just complicated by him being at a couple different extremes, though it seems the Angels have a pretty good handle on the situation.
UPDATE: A source tells me that Ohtani’s blister “is a bit better, certainly didn’t get worse” in his last start and that he’s on his normal schedule for all side activities, plus hitting. It will continue to be monitored and treated, but the only cure here is time.
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (inflamed shoulder)
The thing about Stephen Strasburg is that while some will call him injury prone, he seldom has the same thing twice. His latest injury is something in the back of his shoulder and an MRI was enough to put him on the IL, but not enough to shut him down long. Reports are that Strasburg will test the shoulder later this week, which would indicate they did something like a cortisone injection and want to see how it responds. If it’s simple inflammation, it could calm quickly and get him back into the rotation. Then again, why did it inflame in the first place and can they keep him on the right side of things through a long season?
This is in no way directly related to Strasburg’s carpal tunnel surgery, though one source I spoke with said that there could have been mechanical alterations. I don’t see any and I ran some video of Strasburg through an analyzer — it’s tough with video versus live, so while it’s good enough for my purposes, the Nate could do a lot better — and didn’t see major changes between his 2019 form and 2021. (I skipped last year for so many reasons.)
Strasburg having any sort of shoulder issue isn’t a good thing, but there’s a broad range of possibilities here. If the team can get him back quickly, with just some inflammation rather than any sort of strain, that’s definitely a positive. The thing to watch out for is that Strasburg has so much force in his delivery that it tends to move down the chain. Last time he had any sort of shoulder injury, he almost immediately had a lat strain. That’s a much bigger risk than a de facto recurrence and my biggest worry here.
UPDATE: Strasburg is throwing as part of his rehab, but was very limited, going out only 75 feet at barely more than a ‘play catch’ velocity. The next step would be a sim game, but there’s no timeline for that, so it seems the Nate are just watching to see what causes inflammation. That’s problematic in the sense that he could get all the way through and when he gets back to full-go on the mound, that’s when the forces add up. Testing the arm at lower kinetic forces is smart, but only up to a point.
Nate Pearson SP JAY (strained groin)
Jordan Romano RP JAY (inflamed nerve/elbow)
Being in Under The Knife is never good, but sometimes it’s better than others. The news is relatively positive for the Jays, who should be getting two of their top pitchers back in short order. First, Nate Pearson has completed another sim game and is going to throw live batting practice on Tuesday. Pearson told the media the groin is “feeling really good” so we could be very close to a debut. Pearson’s workload will be monitored, so don’t be stunned with a quick hook in the first few outings, but he can rack up numbers in short sets anyway. In a normal season, he’d likely get at least one rehab start, but the minors aren’t there yet and Pearson has those minor leaguers around to do sim games against as well. The Jays have taken this one slowly, but it looks like this long and recurrent issue is behind Pearson.
Romano had ulnar neuritis, a frightening diagnosis for any pitcher. The ulnar nerve is often entrapped and can cause severe pain or numbness — both extremes, neither good — and can force surgical intervention. For Romano, it was transient and whatever the Jays did, Romano could be back at the minimum, which would be late next week. There is some recurrence worry, but Romano should slot right back into the back of the Jays pen and could get those valuable save chances with Julian Merryweather out longer.
UPDATE: Romano will be activated on Saturday, but there’s still no timeline on Pearson. There’s a chance he pitches as soon as this week, but the team wants five innings from him or nothing, which is shortsighted. It would be easy to piggyback him and if you have a pitcher as good as Pearson, why not give him a two or three inning outing while he builds up?
Quick Cuts:
Mike Trout left Thursday’s game after being hit on the elbow by a pitch. He’s fine, but I’m told the ball was severely bruised. He’s expected to play Friday and normally going forward … Drew Smyly will start Saturday, coming off the IL from forearm inflammation. Assuming that’s cleared up, we’ll have to see if his bad start can be attributed solely to that. Max Fried is a bit further back with the Braves not making a decision about his next turn just yet … The Braves will get Ronald Acuna back on Friday if all goes to plan. He hit off a tee and was able to go through some motions designed to test his strained abdominal. (Side note: a scout who got a look at Texas’ younger players reminded me Luisangel Acuna, Ronald’s younger brother, is “a better hitter age for age” which is stunning. The younger Acuna’s not expected to have the same power, but could stick at 2B and arrive quickly in Arlington … Mike Fiers is ready to come off the IL after work in A’s camp, including some sim games, but he’s not up to a full starter load. Bob Melvin was very noncommittal about whether Fiers would go back to the rotation … The Padres lost another pitcher to Tommy John, Adrian Morejon, who quickly had the surgery after his last outing … Anthony Santander has a Grade II ankle sprain and could miss a month. He hits the IL, though the Orioles hope he can be back in two or three weeks … Another quad strain? Yep, this time it’s Jean Segura and he hits the IL. The Phillies recalled Scott Kingery, though it’s unclear who will get the starts while Segura is out … Another hamstring strain? Yep, this one is for Jorge Alfaro, adding to the high total around the league. The Marlins called up Sandy Leon, who will split with Chad Wallach in the meantime. Yes, that’s Tim’s son if you want to feel older … Another hamstring injury? Yep, this time it’s Miguel Sano. The Twins are calling up Alex Kirilloff, who should get a solid chance to stick even after Sano returns. Sano’s strain isn’t considered major, so he should be back around the minimum … Yermin Mercedes is off to one of those insane starts that we don’t notice if it’s a couple random weeks in the middle of the season. He will be off for a couple days as the Sox will use an off-day to get him rest and let the bruise on his foot from a foul to heal up and not alter his red-hot swing … Nelson Cruz played through a bruised foot, even hitting a homer, but he definitely showed issues running. He could be in for some off days as the Twins let it heal … The Cubs gave Joc Pederson a couple days with his sore wrist, but pushed him to the DL when he saw little improvement despite a couple days of treatment and rest. The team doesn’t think it’s serious but felt they needed the roster spot … Joakim Soria is close, but Arizona wants to see him cover first in a sim game before activating him. Shouldn’t be long now … “No plans for an MRI” is becoming something of a buzzword (buzzphrase?) early this season. First, MRIs tend to be overused when other technologies like ultrasound can see the same thing more quickly and dynamically. At least one team that used that phrase this week was just featured on a site selling the latest portable ultrasound, so know what that phrase can mean …
There was a ‘discussion’ on Twitter about how fast Nolan Ryan would pitch if he were playing today. We all know his famous 100 mph pitch, and we know that technology has gotten better, or at least is used differently. “Slow gun” and “fast gun” are really just about where the pitches are measured and the difference between the speed at release and as it crosses the plate. Use HitTrax, Stalker, and Rapsodo and you’ll see how different measuring devices will come up with different results. That said, the pitch is the same. A radar gun doesn’t have an opinion. The pitch is the pitch, not to get too far into quantum superposition and observations. Ryan’s pure speed remains a matter of debate. For now.
If you look at the box score for last night’s electric game between the Padres and Dodgers, you’ll notice that the Padres appeared to get around the three batter rule with their pen not once, but twice. The loophole in the rule is finishing an inning, since the rule is intended to reduce pitching changes in an inning, causing delays. Several teams have been doing this regularly, finding ways to get matchups and advantages even when there’s a rule that makes LOOGYs an endangered species. Then again, also in that box is the time of that great game. 3:02 and I can’t imagine anyone watching it wanted less of it.