Under The Knife 4/21/23

Sticky Situation

Max Scherzer got ejected Wednesday afternoon for failing the sticky stuff patdown. It’s a ridiculous ritual, one that I really noticed in the midst of the video I posted here the other day, where a camera followed Jordan Romano in from the Skydome bullpen. It was a cool track, with the lights, the sound, and … a pause to get patted down, NYPD style.

Afterwards, and ahead of the inevitable suspension for mixing rosin and something … sunscreen? sweat, if you believe Scherzer? … Scott Boras said that there has to be a better tool than an umpire guessing, something subjective, and I think he’s right. In fact, I think I have it and it could help baseball in general. It’s just going to require a little bit of work.

First, we set up a procedure where each pitcher has their pitching arm completely cleaned just before stepping onto the mound at their home stadium. Wipe it down right there, dry it off, and he walks to the mound. At that point, the pitcher executes three to five of each of his pitches. Yeah, that could take all day for Yu Darvish. What we get are baseline readings from Statcast of a known spin rate on every pitch.

With that baseline set, going some percentage over gets you checked by the umpires. Going some higher percentage over automatically ejects you. I’m very curious what kind of spikes currently happen and the years of data, both pre- and post-sticky ban should inform that number. Here’s what it looked like for Scherzer and … it’s suspicious.

I’m not the only one with suggestions, so baseball should have its choice of how to do this and has a history of rapidly iterating things like this to get to the desired effect. The fact that we could see even more contact if we have less whiffle balls being thrown should only make Rob Manfred happier. An objective standard, better baseball, and the elimination of the silly patdowns - that’s win-win-win.

For now, on to the injuries:

ZACK KELLY, RP BOS (inflamed elbow)

There was a sequence of things said by Alex Cora on Wednesday regarding Zack Kelly that show why managers shouldn’t be giving medical information. First, Cora apparently told the media that Kelly had an InternalBrace in 2020 and that the brace had failed. He corrected this to say it was the anchor, then the “sling” that attached it that needed fixed.

The correct answer was that Kelly’s UCL and brace are fine, but that he has an issue with his ulnar nerve, which will necessitate an ulnar nerve transposition. Transposition has been an issue with pitcher’s elbows since Tommy John himself; his need for the surgery after his reconstruction is what extended his rehab.

For Kelly, the transposition surgery is likely to knock him out the bulk if not all of this season. The normal recovery time is three to four months, so with the build, he’d be at the tail end of the season. A cameo to give him confidence going into the off-season is the best case, but the long term prognosis is very good, especially with the brace intact and in place.

More interestingly, the Red Sox confirmed that Kelly is one of an increasing number of players that are now known to have had UCL repair rather than Tommy John over the last few years. (I’ll have more on this next week. My findings so far are pretty amazing.)

CARLOS RODON, SP NYY (strained back)