Under The Knife 4/20/24

Tortured Pitchers Department

I’m not sure who said it, but the sign of a healthy mind is being able to hold two opposing thoughts at once. That doesn’t work for a baseball team, though unfortunately, most don’t have “one mind” or even get on the same page about things. While baseball clubs are smaller than most think, they’re also viciously territorial and aggressively siloed. One department often doesn’t know what the other is doing, until it gets to a point where the GM or worse, the owner has to step in.

But that’s part of the problem. In many cases, the owner is the one who must be able to step in. He’s paying the GM (or PBO, or whatever title of the week he has) to make baseball decisions, but sometimes things go beyond that into business and cost decisions. But does the owner know enough? Has he been around to know who the Assistant Director of Player Development is?

Look, the Marlins are not a dumb team. They weren’t last year and they certainly weren’t when they brought in Peter Bendix and Gabe Kapler to top the baseball department. I’ve known Peter since before he was in baseball and he was smart and savvy then. Kapler is one of the best interviews I’ve ever done with a player and he’s remained open minded and engaging in many stops. He’s certainly made mistakes, but seeing him in this role intrigued me.

The same is true below them. Oz Ocampo is a guy I’ve known since the first ASMI Conference I went to, getting into baseball about that time and working his way up through player dev. Frankie Piliere was a great early scouting writer who shifted inside the game. Rachel Balkovec is a pioneer, the first female manager now shifting over to use more of her skill set in player dev. There’s others that have been with the organization in various roles over various periods of time, but none you’d call unqualified.

So how did they get the Max Meyer decision so wrong?

I will admit that I don’t know it’s “wrong.” Max Meyer might go to the minors, enjoy his time as a Jumbo Shrimp or a Blue Wahoo, throw three innings a week, and go win the Cy next year. But my guess is he won’t, and that this system isn’t setting him up for success. I can’t say this type of de-load was what broke down Eury Perez or “caused” his elbow issues, but the evidence tells me that it sure didn’t help.

Add in that Mayer is coming out of the Tommy John rehab, not avoiding it. He’s in the “honeymoon” period and by de-loading him, the time is being wasted. There’s no evidence that this protects him from a revision, just as there’s no evidence that it protects from the first in Perez’s case.

I spoke to dozens of people, from pitching gurus to beat reporters, from rehab professionals to former pitchers, asking the same question - is there anything that supports this idea of a de-load? Almost to a person, the answer was a flat no. Many were almost angry, saying that it’s known that building a load and managing a workload is the current state of the art and that this is the opposite.

One expert I talked to said that the issue is vastly oversimplified, and I agree. He explained that most arguments he hears comes down to “save the bullets or load the gun.” In the former, people focus on not overworking a pitcher, without understanding what kind of load a pitcher can actually handle on an individual basis. In the other, the focus is on building strength and velocity, without taking into account things like recovery and resiliency. Neither works.

“Workload management doesn’t have to mean less load,” said one pitching coach. Teams - and again, this may be one person in the machinery or a team decision - simplify this much as they long have for pitch counts alone. Teams used 100 because it was easy and round, not because they knew the underlying data from Paul Richard or the individual biophysiology of any of the pitchers. “Imagine if I had a weight count,” said one performance specialist that works with dozens of MLB players each year. “100 pounds. Squats, bench, whatever. I’m just picking some random number and you can’t exceed it. What happens? No one ever gets stronger.”

What workload management at the MLB level amounts to is a proxy for fatigue. We simply can’t look at a pitcher’s arm like we do our phone’s battery and get a good readout. Even if we could, every battery is going to have different conditions, charge differently, and many more individualized things. In the absence of that, workload management can give a good guide, allowing pitchers to know where they are and for coaches to understand what they can get out of pitchers. For coordinators, they could use workload as a guide to who can be a resilient starter or a wipe-out releiver. Or, who should go home. It isn’t simply limiting and de-loading, as what this seems like from the outside for Meyer.

Two sources told me that Meyer had a very progressive program when he was at the University of Minnesota. When drafted by the Marlins, they were a team that was - let’s call it less progressive. It’s unclear how much he was able to hold that program with the team, especially when complicated by alternate sites. He progressed quickly through the system until he quickly had elbow issues, leading to Tommy John surgery. With some changes at the top and some people in pitching and performance that have been steady, it’s impossible to know from outside how much it was change or how much was a consistent program that didn’t have the intended results.

Inside the Marlins system, I’m not sure how they’re handling things, but again, they have good, smart people that should be making these decisions. Dr. Scot Morrison is a very well thought of physical therapist and sports scientist. His work on rehab loading is widely cited and his use of what he calls “Sloptimal Loading” is one of the more noted feedback-loop systems in the field. The medical staff is good as well. However, good people can have bad outcomes and with all of this, how did they get to a point where a system that has no basis in evidence or even anecdote is being used on one of their most valuable assets, at the same time reducing the team’s chance of winning in the now?

Often times, a new leadership team comes in and “holds serve” for a year. They watch, they take notes, and they see who they want to keep. Even in baseball’s small circles, you can’t fire everyone. The problem is, that’s a year where people who aren’t on the same page or worse, are reading from the book of last year, chapter screwing things up, aren’t ejected and remain not only in power, but setting back progress.

To be clear, it’s not just the Marlins. I went to see Paul Skenes pitch in Indianapolis and he made it into the fourth inning this time, coming out just over 60 pitches. It’s a slight increase, but I was told before the game that the goal of this outing wasn’t to “ramp him up” and that the Pirates were happy with the progress of his changeup (which he did throw more, and effectively). Skenes dominated a St. Paul team that included a couple major league caliber talents, like a rehabbing Max Kepler and newly-signed Tony Kemp, hitting 101 a couple times, including from the stretch (!!).

Once again, I want to point to ownership. In these two cases, the entire public persona of Bruce Sherman and Bob Nutting is miserly. To me, that’s missing the point, because teams like the Rays can win with similar salary numbers, but an ownership group that’s been strong, supportive, and consistent. Contrasting Stu Sternberg to Sherman and Nutting is night and day, or at least like that eclipse a couple weeks ago. While GMs come and go, owners seldom do and if nothing else, their absence of involvement might be as bad as their over-involvement.

We have to hope that with further work, data, and progress, teams like the Marlins, Pirates, and frankly the other 28 teams that are sending arms to surgery at an alarming rate can learn from this. If the de-load program is right, so much of what we use in other ways is wrong, down to the most basic tenets of pitching and performance management. Max Meyer is just the latest in a long line that has been let down by the system and it’s time to start asking better questions about why.

(I asked the Marlins for comment via email and did not get a response.)

So let’s get to the injuries:

JUSTIN VERLANDER, SP HOU (strained shoulder)

Justin Verlander’s spring shoulder issue has at times been something that seemed like a “I’d rather not do spring training” in a Roger Clemens sense and at other times, it’s been an injury that seems like the first sign of aging in a player seemingly immune. No one is, so seeing Verlander’s first start under the lights Friday was enough for me to delay this by a day.

The first key was his velocity, which was fine. He was consistently in the mid-90s with his fastball and didn’t appear to be laboring at any point. His delivery was, to the naked eye, pretty standard Verlander with no clear issue with repeatability. The results he got were pretty good. He was hittable, but not by much, though CJ Abrams was seeing it pretty well. All the data like release point and movement compares well with last year as well.

Finally, Verlander went 78 pitches, right in the middle of expectations for this outing. Overall, it’s a positive for Verlander and a big positive for an Astros rotation that needs anyone, but getting an ace-level stabilizer could be a real difference maker in both the short and long term. The expectation is that Verlander will take his normal turn, but the last test will be that he recovers well and can handle his side work normally.

KYLE FREELAND, SP COL (strained elbow)

“Unrelated to the collision.” If you remember the awkward base running collision that Kyle Freeland was a part of last week, it was his non-pitching shoulder that was questioned. The Rockies said he was uninjured afterwards, despite his writhing on the ground, but they later called it a separation. Now, this forearm strain appears to have come out of nowhere. Coming so close to the other, it’s easy to assume, but coincidences happen all the time.

But so do correlations. If Freeland had gone out in his next start and come up with a strained forearm, I would have questioned whether the collision subtly changed his mechanics (and looked at the available Statcast data, and looked for sources that had the biomechanical data teams have) leading to the injury. I can’t find out for sure if Freeland even had a side session.

This one’s just a head scratcher and it feels like there’s a part of the story that we just don’t have. The question is - will we? This is another of those times where we have to hope the local reporters can get better information and make clear when the team is deciding to not give much.

YU DARVISH, SP SDP (inflamed neck)

The Padres pushed Yu Darvish to the IL with what they’re calling “neck tightness” and I couldn’t get much more than that. It came up recently and doesn’t appear related to anything. I don’t know if it’s strictly muscular, but there isn’t much concern that it’s nervous or causing issues in his shoulder. Simply, Darvish isn’t able to turn his head as much as normal, making his pitching process and motion uncomfortable. Rather than risk him doing something unusual, they’ll take the 15 day break.

The Pads didn’t immediately fill the rotation spot. It doesn’t appear they think Darvish will be gone in the longer term. Randy Vazquez won’t make the quick round trip, it appears, but the team might go bullpen or opener as they have in the past. There’s depth in both the rotation and pen, so it’s not going to tax them to do it once or twice. Past that, they’ll have a much clearer picture on Darvish and can make decisions with more complete information.

RAFAEL DEVERS, 3B BOS (bruised knee)

A bone bruise isn’t good, but at least having an answer now on Rafael Devers is something the Red Sox can deal with. He missed four games, came back, and now might miss the better part of six games and yes, that adds up to ten which makes one wonder why the Sox didn’t IL him in the first place. The fact is that they got the diagnosis right but that the bruise just simply hasn’t healed well, which happens and is unpredictable.

The issue with bone bruises is the cause and the location. They can be painful, just like any bruise, but they tend to go away naturally. Sometimes that takes longer, as in this case, but there’s really not much that can be done. Things like Normatecs and other pumps don’t necessarily help something internally and can cause additional pain in some cases.

Given they’ve already given up the games, waiting through the weekend is baked in for the Sox. Brian Dalbec can hold the fort at third, though if this doesn’t improve by Monday, I think we’ll see some additional steps. All indications from the media reports are that Devers should be back in and at that stage, should be ready to play normally.

KE’BRYAN HAYES, 3B PIT (inflamed back)

I continue to be fascinated by the Pirates. Henry Davis is looking like a solid enough catcher that the whole outfield experiment seems poor. (Which reminds me, Yasmani Grandal was catching Paul Skenes. I’m curious if that was just to get a “pro look” at Skenes in game situations, since Grandal isn’t expected to catch much.) The Pirates have been able to take their perennial high pick and do something with it, while developing players like Bryan Reynolds and making some smart, cheap signings like Carlos Santana and bringing back Andrew McCutchen. No other team would keep Oneil Cruz at short long enough to let it work like it has.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is one of those, a solid player that just hasn’t had quite enough around him to be noticed as one of those solid secondary players every winning team needs. That’s the issue - this team is all solid secondary players and no stars, at least until Skenes gets the call. Even then, the expectation is that Skenes will follow the Gerrit Cole model and get shifted off when the arbitration number gets too high, let alone free agency.

Hayes missed a couple games with a tight back, coming back on Friday, but his numbers this season are an indication this might be something more. He’s got no homers and his SLG is down by over 100 points, albeit in a small sample. Back issues can linger and be come and go, so this is when where the Pirates medical staff is really going to make a difference. If they can keep Hayes productive while maintaining and minimizing whatever the root cause of the back issue is, that could make a difference in what looks like a close enough division to make the Pirates relevant.

OZZIE ALBIES, 2B ATL (fractured toe)

Ozzie Albies is the latest reminder of “why doesn’t the foot/shin guard cover the toe?” It seems a simple change, but the fit of it would need to be more customized and players are reluctant to do anything that changes the feel of their feet. That can be the shoe or even just weight. Add in that players are reluctant to protect themselves against things they feel are rare events and you get things like Albies hitting the IL with a broken toe.

The fractured big toe won’t need surgery and should take a couple weeks to heal up. It doesn’t need to heal up all the way, though now he’ll have to think about the protection issue and deal with it more. Just putting in a carbon or metal shank in the shoe offers some protection for the toe, unless the pressure comes from above, as a foul ball does. I wouldn’t expect much in the way of issue beyond the lost time here and maybe a bit of first-step quickness lost in the short term.

Quick Cuts:

Ricky Tiedemann came out of his last minor league start and had an MRI on his elbow Thursday. No word on results as yet, but he’d been wild in 3 Triple-A starts after dominating in the Fall League last year. … The Angels said that Robert Stephenson would undergo elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season. We can’t assume that’s Tommy John either, but it’s likely that or a variant. Tells us why the Angels put that elbow option in his contract … The Sox said that Garret Whitlock had a low-grade oblique strain, but they pushed him to the 15. Chase Anderson is the likely fill-in, but all reports are that this should be near the minimum … With Verlander back, the next Astro to return could be Luis Garcia. He’s been throwing pens and could get some live work shortly in his TJ rehab …. Kyle Bradish will have his next rehab start at Triple-A on Sunday, with the expectation that he’ll be north of 50 pitches. If this goes well, there’s likely one more before he’d return to the Orioles … Marco Gonzalez hits the IL with a strained forearm. He’ll be shut down a couple weeks and his total lost time will depend on how the arm heals up. It’s likely a month at least, so is this the opening for Paul Skenes? … Ryne Nelson goes to the 15 after taking a comebacker off the elbow. Actually, it looked like it hit him about halfway down the forearm and that’s where he was grabbing as he came off so “stiff elbow” is interesting. With Jordan Montgomery coming up, Nelson’s rotation spot was taken already … Michael Massey was activated and started at second after torching a rehab assignment. He won’t hit an 1100 OPS for the Royals, but he could be valuable for them if they can keep up this hot start. Speaking of, how long do the Royals have to hold on to contention before they bring Zack Grienke back? … Fascinating piece on Tarik Skubal’s changeup, which almost needs another name. I’m intrigued how he went from the splitter, which Driveline helped design and pick, to suddenly getting the SSW on the change. There’s no explanation of that. Beats?