Under The Knife 4/14/23

Expanding Expansion

While MLB has been quiet about expansion for a while, the talk bubbled up last week when Salt Lake City, Utah entered the chat. After one of the more entertaining NBA All Star logos, plus a long term history of support for the Jazz and a booming business community that could easily find local billions to run an MLB team, it’s a valid option, stepping into the conversation with Nashville, Charlotte, Montreal, and Las Vegas.

Led by Gale Miller, the wife of the late car dealer Larry Miller, who brought the Jazz to Utah, there’s baseball credibility with Dale Murphy and Utah’s governor adding to the political will. I’m told there’s plenty of money in the group with hints that the Romney family, Ryan Smith (the current owner of the Jazz), and even the Latter Day Saints church’s investment arm involved. Miller alone has upwards of $3 billion per Forbes, and Salt Lake has been on a building spree, with a location already picked for the ballpark.

Salt Lake wouldn’t quite be Denver, but at 4,700 feet above sea level, it’s not far off. My hope would be that they would build a huge, quirky park. Think Ebbetts Field in the Wasatch. I saw a design a couple years back that basically had a 30 foot wall all the way around the outfield, which was visually interesting and designed to put virtual ads up for TV. There’s lots of things Salt Lake could do, if they need to build an MLB stadium in the future.

Is it big enough? At 1.25 million people, that’s the city’s biggest hurdle. Depending on how you look at things, at best, Salt Lake is about the market size of Milwaukee and potentially much further down. Charlotte, Portland, Las Vegas, and Nashville are all much bigger, but money talks and the ability to get a stadium built is a major question in the other markets, especially Nashville, which has been widely considered the best market inside MLB.

One interesting thing about most of the cities involved in discussions is that they already have Triple-A teams. That means there’s a trickle-down effect as well. If Salt Lake were to get a team, what would happen to the franchise there (which is in the process of building a new stadium outside of town), and the Angels, who can’t just get a new affiliate due to the long-term affiliation agreements that came in last time around? The Bees, also owned by the Miller group, might not leave and would be a likely affiliate for … well, if the MLB team doesn’t take the name, what would a Salt Lake team be called?

The Angels are already geographically spread out. Double-A is Rocket City, or Madison, Alabama, a suburb of Huntsville, Alabama, which probably isn’t an easy shift to Triple-A. Would they try and shift to Inland Empire (San Bernardino), for the more geographical fit? At 47 miles, that’s almost as close as Frisco is to Arlington. (The shortest is the 23 miles between Sugar Land and Houston.)

I’m not sure of what cities would be Triple-A fits, though I can see some ambitious city trying to make a name like Frisco has with sports. That town exploded, with the RoughRiders a big part of that. None of the fastest growing suburbs seem to be a great fit. Would Oakland be a better fit for a Triple-A franchise, if the Athletics moved? I think that wound might need to heal more.

There are a couple options that are a bit more outside the box. Assuming that Montreal and Monterrey don’t get the expansion franchises, they might be good fits for Triple-A. The downside is they’re not really geographic fits for the expansion locations, but those could be shuffled in what’s going to be a crazy session as the ten-year agreements come to renewal in 2030.

I’m not sure that Salt Lake can beat out any of the other contenders for the inevitable round of expansion that’s coming this decade, plus there could be some unique challenges that even solid ownership couldn’t beat. MLB has held off in hopes of getting both Oakland and Tampa’s stadium situations fixed, and both of those should come to a head in the next year. My guess is expansion is factored in to the next CBA and that we see two new franchises in 2026 and playing by 2028.

I’m very curious your thoughts on Salt Lake, expansion, and Triple-A fits. Check Notes to discuss! For now, thirty teams have plenty of injuries so let’s get to it:

COREY SEAGER, SS TEX (strained hamstring)

It’s a simple hamstring strain for Corey Seager, one that will keep him out for about a month, and putting the Rangers in a tough position. As one of the players expected to benefit most from the shift ban, Seager’s picked up better than 200 OPS points over last year. It’s a small sample of just 39 ABs, but it’s noticeable as a trend.

Seager had a similar strain of his left hamstring back in 2019. With that one, he missed just shy of a month, which included the All Star break. The Rangers lose one of their best bats by any measure and have some decisions to make on how to fill the gap. Josh Smith gets first shot at it, but he’s hitting 158 despite being a lifetime 300 hitter in the minors. Ezequiel Duran could be a platoon partner, but there’s some question about whether Bruce Bochy would move Marcus Semien back to his original position.

There’s not much ready help in the minors either. With Luisangel Acuna - yes, Ronald’s younger brother - hitting 222 at Double-A Frisco, he’s not likely to come across town for even a quick fill-in. Chris Young has made some bold moves, but if Seager is only out a month, he’s not going to be too aggressive to fill in. I think we’re going to learn how Bochy will manage this Rangers squad over the next couple weeks.

JEFFREY SPRINGS, SP TBR (inflamed forearm)

It didn’t look that bad at the time, but as Jeffrey Springs left his latest start in the fourth inning, the worry was real. Early word is that the issue is ulnar neuritis and that he’ll go for imaging to make sure there’s no other issues, and to see what’s impinging that nerve. How Springs’ arm responds to treatment will determine how long he’s out, but it’s hard to imagine this will be a minimum stay on the IL.

There are new techniques such as hydrodissection that can be used in cases like this. Tigers reliever Beau Brieske had it recently, so Rays fans can watch him for a timeline, if that comes in to play with Springs. There’s a lot of steps before it gets to that, or to surgery, though it tends to be very successful. The downside, of course, is the loss of time.

I can’t embed tweets any more, so you can click here to see the play where Springs was injured and his reaction. (Thanks, Elon.) It wasn’t terribly noticeable, but you can see him look down at the palm-side of his forearm and then to the dugout. The medical staff was out quick, as was Springs. At Durham, Luis Patino and Yonny Chirinos are there, but have had shaky starts in their first few. Taj Bradley has to be the answer. Despite being sent down surprisingly after his first start, he can be re-called to replace an injured player. Oh well, the Tampa airport is nice.

JUSTIN VERLANDER, SP NYM (strained shoulder)

One of the reasons the Mets chose Justin Verlander over Jacob deGrom was health and availability. The Mets had seen deGrom dominate, but they’d also seen him miss significant time over the past three seasons and stood on their valuation when other teams, including the Rangers, outbid them. Money wasn’t the issue, but the Mets with all their knowledge of deGrom made the decision to go with the higher AAV and shorter length with Verlander, which includes an innings-based third year option.

Thus far, deGrom has been dominant near Dallas, while Verlander has been absent in Queens. The shoulder strain has kept Verlander off the mound since late March, though he’s expected to step back on a slope this week as he progresses. He’s at the team’s Florida facility and is expected to have several sessions before a rehab start. The location and timing of that isn’t determined yet.

For what was called a low-grade teres major strain, Verlander’s been slow to return from it. While he never stopped throwing, the intensity hasn’t been there either. Going to full speed and adding the mound in will test the healing and give a more accurate picture of how close Verlander is. When determining the workload of an overhead thrower, intensity is a key marker. There’s a big difference between 100 throws in a game of catch and 100 pitches in a live situation. The Mets definitely know that, so it will be interesting to see how their experts help guide the medical staff.

BRYCE HARPER, DH PHI (sprained elbow/rehab)
DARICK HALL, 1B PHI (sprained thumb)

It didn’t take long from word that Darick Hall would need surgery to repair his sprained thumb to Bryce Harper filling the space. Rumblings that Harper was beginning to play first in order to play there came quick and while he’s done some work there in the past, the need post Hall and Hoskins injuries is clear.

The downside of this is that it won’t really help Harper get back any quicker. Word is that his last hurdle is getting clearance to slide. I asked a doctor about this and he said yes, Harper’s headfirst slides could be an issue for the anchors until it’s sure the bone around them has fully healed. A former MLB coach said that the simple solution - sliding feet first - isn’t as easy as it sounds. “He’s been sliding head first his whole life,” he said, “so either he’s going to be awkward going feet first or he instinctually goes head first on a close play.”

Harper is reported to be heading back to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache* to get that approval and I bet he’s back on the field quickly after that. I’m not sure if he’ll be limited to DH only or if he’ll be cleared to play first at that point. I’m guessing that with the hitting he’s been doing, he’ll have a very quick rehab assignment, likely at near-by Lehigh Valley.

As for Hall, the UCL sprain in his thumb is common and easily fixed, as his was on Wednesday. This operation is commonly done with an InternalBrace, with a return time right about a month. Dustin Pedroia, Mike Trout, and Andrelton Simmons all come to mind, so I’m curious if there’s a reason the Phillies said two months for Hall. I couldn’t get a confirmed reasoning from sources, so either he had the older style reconstruction or they just went long with the rehab time for no good reason.

*I’m curious if we’ll see Dr. ElAttrache on the upcoming “The Family Stallone.” ElAttrache is married to the sister of Sylvester Stallone’s wife and he’s done surgery on him before. Arnold Schwarzenegger tells a very funny story about the day they passed each other in the hall, one heading in to surgery and the other coming out.

ORLANDO ARCIA, SS ATL (fractured wrist)
IAN ANDERSON, SP ATL (sprained elbow)

“Microfracture” isn’t a term heard much any more. The knee surgery is seldom done due to a lack of success in the long term, but for Orlando Arcia, the specificity is nice, but there’s been a lack of context. A source tells me that in this case, the “micro” is that the fracture itself is so small, the bone is in no danger. That indicates it’s a hamate fracture, where it seldom heals well and the hook of the bone often displaces.

Essentially, this term is saying that the fracture is small enough that the normal issues of a hamate fracture aren’t in play, they think, and that surgery won’t be necessary. That puts Arcia’s return timeline around six to eight weeks, slightly less than a surgical fix would be. The Braves are expected to bring Vaughn Grissom back up, though the move hasn’t been made officially as of publish.

At the same time they announced Arcia was headed to the IL, the Braves snuck out news that Ian Anderson underwent surgery for his elbow issue. The big news was that it was a repair, not a reconstruction, which comes with a shorter recovery time (and theoretically a much shorter recovery time. MLB teams have been very conservative with these, but lower level players have come back much more quickly. Anderson’s still likely out for the season, but having him back for the start of the next is much more likely.

JOEY VOTTO, 1B CIN (strained shoulder/biceps)

It’s weird seeing Joey Votto not hit. He’s coming back from a complex surgery on his shoulder and biceps, he’s currently at 4 for 32 heading into Wednesday, which is decidedly un-Votto-like. The swing is “a mess” according to a scout that saw two games and he’s clearly not ready to be called up. The clock is ticking, unless the Reds decide to end the rehab assignment and re-start the 20 day maximum.

Shoulder issues can disturb a swing, but rotator cuff repairs usually don’t. Instead, I think it’s the biceps issue that’s the problem. I couldn’t confirm with anyone what the surgery was that Votto had, but I went back to review all the statements from the Reds, from Votto, and from sources I spoke with late last season. I think I have the answer, but again, this is speculation: I believe Votto had a surgery called biceps tenodesis.

The surgery removes the normal attachment of the biceps tendon, which merges with the labrum in such a way that some doctors believe it is a single structure. The tendon is then re-attached in a different spot. That’s complex and changes the biomechanics, which is why it’s rarely done in professional sports. In a 2022 study involving Dr. Anthony Romeo, only half of players came back to the same level, though the sample size was only 14. Even with the exclusions of some who had other issues, as Votto did, you can see this is a rare surgery with mixed results.

If I’m correct and this is what Votto had done, in addition to the rotator cuff repair, it’s no surprise that he’s struggling and a return to his former level is a coin-flip. Add in his age and we may well have seen the last of the Joey Votto we’re used to

Quick Cuts:

Joe Musgrove hurt his shoulder while diving on a fielding play during his rehab start. With a cortisone shot done to help it, he’ll likely need at least one more rehab start to test it and continue his ramp … Kyle Farmer took a nasty HBP to the face. He had some dental work, but he’s not expected to need the IL … Michael Conforto is looking like a nice pickup for the Giants after missing all of 2022. He left Wednesday’s game with a calf issue, but the team doesn’t think he’ll miss much if any time … Paul Blackburn made a nice rehab start on Tuesday and it looks like he’ll have at least one more before returning to the Oakland roster … Masataka Yoshida is expected to return Friday after missing a couple days with hamstring tightness … Looks like Lars Nootbar will be activated this weekend after going 0 for 5 Thursday in Double-A. The results weren’t there, but Nootbar showed no issues at the plate … Cards prospect Tink Hence left his start with what is feared to be an elbow issue. He was third on many Cards prospect lists, just behind Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn … Byron Buxton is fine after a nasty looking collision with Lenin Sosa on the base paths. Just me, or does it seem like a lot more collisions early this year? … The Twins will skip Kenta Maeda’s next turn through the rotation as he continues to work through some dead arm. They’ll juggle the rotation with a spot start from Louie Varland … JT Brubaker had Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season … Here’s a quirky thing. Brian Ellis, a Senior outfielder from Florida Gulf Coast, has reached base in 102 straight games. It’s not a Dimaggio-style hitting streak, but in games where he hasn’t had a hit, he’s had a walk or HBP. It’s an impressive feat, but how impressive? His stat line is nice, but pedestrian, and the streak seems more a quirk than a skill. I couldn’t find a scout that’s seen him, but I have to think some team might take a late-round shot on him to see how high up that skill, if it is one, plays.