Under The Knife 3/5/25

Gary Scott is in the Oil Business Now

With teams less inclined to manipulate service time, talent is rising faster than ever, and that’s not just a product of opportunity — it’s a reflection of how much the game has changed at every level. The idea that a prospect like Gary Scott could emerge from relative obscurity, ride a hot spring, and suddenly be an Opening Day starter feels almost archaic now. Today’s top young players aren’t just hot hands—they’re arriving more polished, more prepared, and more immediately impactful than any previous generation. This isn’t about some fluke adjustment or a guy getting lucky on a handful of fastballs over the plate in March. It’s about a development pipeline that’s never been more efficient.

The college game is a huge part of that. It’s no longer just a way station for guys who didn’t sign out of high school. It’s a high-level developmental system producing players who are often closer to being major league-ready than many of their minor league counterparts. The best college players are facing elite velocity, advanced breaking balls, and defensive shifts that mimic big-league strategy. They’re training with cutting-edge technology, lifting in strength programs indistinguishable from pro clubs, and playing in environments where the stakes feel real. The Cape League used to be the closest thing to pro ball for college players —now, SEC weekends are filled with guys who could slot into Double-A tomorrow. It’s no coincidence that the top of the draft is increasingly filled with players who have gone through this crucible.

For pitchers, the shift is even more obvious. Brody Brecht might not break camp with the Rockies, but if he were in Colorado’s rotation right now, would he be the fourth-best starter? Chase Dollander, another college ace, might beat him to the majors, but it’s hard to argue that either needs years of minor league seasoning. The old model — draft a guy, send him to Low-A, let him "learn how to pitch" — is dead. Organizations now use a more targeted approach, leveraging biomechanical analysis, pitch-shaping tech, and individualized workloads to get guys major league ready faster. It's why we see more polished rookies stepping into rotations and succeeding immediately.

The same goes for hitters. The next wave — Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, and others — won’t have to grind through the bus leagues just to prove they can handle pro competition. With the bat speed, strength, and swing decisions they’re already showing, their Triple-A stops might be nothing more than a layover, if that. That’s where the game is now.

The influx of better-prepared talent has accelerated thanks to shifts in both the college and pro games, and with the NCAA poised for further changes, the trend will only continue. Older players will have to move quickly. Young stars will arrive even more battle-tested. The game isn’t what it was when a spring training stat line could propel someone like Scott into a job. The best prospects today aren’t just making teams — they’re ready to star. And that’s why anyone buying into spring training mirages in 2025 are setting themselves up to be burned.

With that fire lit, let’s get to the injuries:

RAFAEL DEVERS, 3B/DH BOS (inflamed shoulder)

There’s an interesting theory that someone inside baseball, but not the Red Sox, tossed at me the other day. The text was “Are Sox holding Devers back for DH?” Texts are short, but he was asking if the Sox were using Devers’ continued rehab from last season’s shoulder problems to hold him off third and shift him to DH. It’s the right move from an analytics sense, but even with a long term deal in place, keeping Devers happy and productive is a need. Alex Bregman is the better third baseman by far and shifting Devers now would be the right move, if they can convince him.

I discount this, since Devers obviously knows whether he’s physically capable of playing the position and knows that the Sox would rather have the ideal lineup out there rather than simply keeping him at third because, well, Devers wants to be at third. Having that talk in the training room rather than the manager’s office isn’t going to soften it much.

The shoulder is an issue and might force Devers to DH for now and maybe he gets more comfortable with the idea. That’s not a theory, but the reality for now. He was expected to debut this spring on Monday, but didn’t. There’s no guidance on when he was going to be back, but all signs are that Devers simply wasn’t ready to do so rather than any setback or change to his status. He’s hitting, but the question is how much time he needs. While many will say he needs to be out there soon, his ability to take real swings off a Trajekt makes me question whether that’s as much as it used to be.

FELIX BAUTISTA, RP BAL (sprained elbow)

One inning isn’t enough to base anything off of, but for guys coming back from Tommy John surgery, that first pitch is meaningful. They’ve done all the work and that fading scar on the elbow has gone from pain to the normal soreness of pitching workload. Just like the first pitch in an MLB debut and even on the smaller fields of spring training, it’s a moment for the far-too-many pitchers that do it.

Felix Bautista had that moment. His inning was uneventful - two K’s are nice, as is the 97 on the gun. The next issue will be doing it again, and to keep doing it. There’s already strong indications that Bautista won’t be doing back-to-back days now or into the season, which could open up some saves and cost him a few. If we do see it during spring, that would be a big positive indicator that he’s recovering well and that the lost saves will be minimal.

This is the point where people say things about post-Tommy John pitchers and where I try to bite my tongue. Facts are, most pitchers will come back, come back well, and come back to almost exactly the same level that they were. It’s a lost year-plus and very little else in terms of the cost. Reducing that should be the focus, but the handwringing and naysaying is counterfactual.

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