Under The Knife 3/5/24
March Is For Baseball
First, RIP Chris Mortenson.
This time last year, Wyatt Langford was in Gainesville. Jackson Holliday was in Single-A. Evan Carter was in Frisco. Jackson Chourio was in Biloxi. There’s fewer and fewer players like Austin Wells who worked their way stepwise through the system, albeit quickly. Does this mean we’re just getting better players, or that the anti-gaming rules of the new CBA are working. A comp round pick likely isn’t worth playing a player who can’t play, but look at that list of names - those are very likely the next generation of baseball stars and if you give me those names, I’ll give you the field and odds for Rookie of the Year. (And no, I don’t think Yoshinobu Yamamoto should be eligible.)
While baseball is on the cusp of generational change - Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are in their 30’s and face defining seasons for their legacies - we’re also seeing change in how stars make it up. We’ve long known that the younger that players make it to the majors, the better. “The Kid” was special in part because we all saw how good Ken Griffey Jr was and we could dream on the next twenty years. But does he make it up as quickly if the gimmick of playing with his father didn’t exist? I’m not sure.
The Braves weren’t scared of bringing people up young. Andruw Jones is a no-doubter, but don’t sleep on Rafael Furcal, who was a difference maker for those dynasty-era teams. We could go all the way back to Willie Mays or even Joe Nuxhall; there have always been young players that have forced their way up, but it seems like that’s more than ever now. I think it’s simply better players, more ready, with better training available. There might even be a survivor effect through the gauntlet of travel ball that’s tearing down so many good players, especially on the pitching side.
What we don’t know is how injuries will affect this cohort. Age matters to injury, but not in the way most think. Younger players get injured more, but tend to be shorter, with acute injuries and “hustle” bumps. Older players are older players because they’ve stayed relatively healthy or have a high enough level of talent to keep getting shots. It ends up evening out, so we’ll see if the influx of young players changes that, or whether all that “seasoning” they told us players needed was just eyewash.
With the NFL Combine behind us, let’s get to the baseball injuries:
RONALD ACUNA JR, OF ATL (inflamed knee)
Ronald Acuna Jr has a meniscus issue. This isn’t uncommon. The worry is that it will require a surgical fix and he’s headed to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache, so the Braves and Acuna are taking this seriously.
While the Braves are calling this an “irritation”, it’s unclear if they mean there’s an issue with the meniscus itself, or something like a plica. This video shows more:
Surgery for a plica or minor meniscal damage would take a couple weeks to heal from, though you’ll likely see four to six weeks quoted, since the timeline on Acuna would include some spring training, require a short rehab assignment, and the general conservative timelines we see with superstars.
The “worst case” would be a repair of the meniscus. That can take as much as six months, has a pretty low relative success rate, but has better longer term consequences. It would functionally end his season. A recent comp on that would be Miguel Sano, who hasn’t played significantly since the procedure in 2022. The diagnosis and fix are varied, so I’ll wait for what’s likely to be updated later Monday or Tuesday.
One reader emailed over the weekend, asking if this might be caused or exacerbated by his increased base stealing. Stealing does take a toll, with the sprints, slides, and occasional collisions. There’s some evidence that people wear down, though there’s the counterargument of Rickey Henderson, though I’m not sure he’s human. It’s reasonable to think it may have contributed, but most meniscus issues are a combination of long term stress and an acute event. Acuna’s seems much more like the latter.
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