Under The Knife 3/5/21

Fractured Framber, Broken Bellinger, and Misunderstood Santana

Let’s jump right into the good stuff today, after a quick reminder that UTK will be free starting March 15 all the way up to Opening Day, April 1. Tell a friend as this is a big growth season and I’m hoping to grow UTK significantly ahead of the season. Let’s get to it:

Framber Valdez SP HOU (fractured finger)

Comebackers are always dangerous, but the usual thought is an impact to the face or head. Framber Valdez and the Astros have learned that an impact to anything, even a hand or finger, can be devastating. With a number of injuries, Valdez’s fractured ring finger on his pitching hand could cost him the entire season.

Valdez’s fracture is serious enough that doctors have recommended surgery. That normally involves using small pins or screws to fixate the bone in proper alignment. The issue is how much that finger will affect his grip, his grips, and his release. Given the need for surgery and how quickly the word that he could miss months rather than weeks, we have to assume the effect is severe. I guess Valdez isn’t willing to go Ronnie Lott on this.

There’s a chance that Valdez’s finger comes back more quickly, but he’s going to have a hard time keeping his arm in shape, so months remains the best case. One team doctor I texted with thought the All Star break was reasonable if best-case.

Right now, the Astros don’t have a clear 5. Luis Garcia is one of the Astros players that will be absent due to COVID protocols, while Austin Pruitt is still recovering from elbow surgery. That means Forrest Whitley might get a look earlier than expected, or maybe Tyler Ivey, who’s on the 40, is pushed forward. The Astros are probably going to have to watch the waiver wire or work a deal for someone to fill that 5, at least until Garcia is ready. How quickly he can get back into his throwing program is going to be big.

Cody Bellinger OF LAD (post-shoulder repair)

Cody Bellinger is ramping up his activity, getting ready to do more throwing and hitting. Given his issue, I’m more worried about the throwing in the initial stages since there’s more of a chance that he could throw “too hard” and loosen up the shoulder or even have it sublux (move inside the joint) more than the repair can handle.

In the medium term, the effects on his swing are going to be the key. A lot of players take significant adjustment coming back from any sort of shoulder surgery with former Dodger Matt Kemp being my go-to example of how significant that issue can be.

Surgically, the hope is that the minimal invasion and repair is enough to hold things together while not affecting any of the biomechanics. Changes in how the surgery is done, led by Dodgers team doc Neal ElAttrache, have helped, so we’ll see whether what happened to Kemp can be avoided by modern advances. Obviously, we’ll all be watching Bellinger closely throughout the season. What I’m looking for is swing speed and power, mostly exit velocity. Can he get back or close to normal levels at the earliest possible date? We’re closer to finding out.

(UPDATE: This is an E on me. The surgery wasn’t on Bellinger’s throwing shoulder, so any worry about his throwing is obviously not a worry. In general, labrum issues do cause more issues with throwing but … my apologies.)

JAVY GUERRA RP SDP (sprained elbow)
JOSE CASTILLO RP SDP (sprained elbow)

The Padres do a lot of things right and aren’t scared to make big or bold moves. The next thing they should fix is their pitching management, because they have a lot of pitching arm injuries, from Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevenger to Javy Guerra and Jose Castillo. I haven’t dug into the raw numbers on this, but it feels like the Padres are having more arm injuries. (And yes, I’m going to dig more over the weekend. Only so many hours in the day. I haven’t even watched the WandaVision finale yet folks!)

For Guerra, it’s a Grade I UCL sprain — Bryan Baker was also diagnosed exactly this way by the Jays, so maybe more specifics are coming from teams? — which means it’s not necessarily a surgical case, but it’s still not good. As a reliever, it’s easier for him to build back up, but there’s no real timeline. There’s no word on whether Guerra will have something like PRP to assist with healing (allegedly).

For Castillo, it’s cut and dry. He’s headed for Tommy John surgery and his ‘21 is done. He missed ‘20 with a lat strain and ‘19 with a flexor strain, so it’s safe to call him injury prone. He’ll once again try to come back and for all the talk we’re getting about people missing a full season, Castillo’s missed two already and now three, yet no one seems concerned that he’ll lose something.

The Padres pen is now down four key arms, with Guerra and Castillo added to Matt Strahm, coming back from patellar tendon surgery late last season, and Keone Kela still not 100 percent after a late season forearm issue that’s never been fully clarified by either the Pirates or Padres. They have plenty of arms to get through, but things are starting to thin out.

Nate Pearson SP TOR (strained groin)

Nate Pearson is key to the Blue Jays hopes this year and in the future, so while a minor groin strain is not really a big deal, they’re also not going to take any sort of chances with it. Pearson will be shut down a couple days as it heals, which will set back his spring work and puts Opening Day in a bit of jeopardy. Pearson works closely with Kinetic Pro, so I’m not worried about how he’ll manage workloads or that there will be any question about when it will be safe for him to get back out there.

In a normal year, I’d say the Jays might let Pearson stay in extended or have a start in Buffalo, but this isn’t a normal year. The MiLB delay and early season shift makes the alt-site a possibility, which is really the back fields, which is essentially extended. I know, it’s confusing, but I think with Pearson, the bottom line is that we won’t really get a good look at how he’s progressing. I’m not a fan of unknowns, but Pearson’s stuff should be fine even with a possible slight delay.

Danny Santana UT BOS (post-elbow reconstruction)

Danny Santana signed with the Red Sox, but in almost every case, stories about his signing overlook the type of elbow surgery he had and why that’s important. Santana’s surgery is often described as a “Tommy John variant” with nine month rehab, but that’s a bit off. Santana had an internal brace, which is rare inside MLB, but has been well tested with amazing results on non-professional athletes across joint types.

I think the rehab times come from the previous pitcher who had this, Seth Maness. In many cases, the return is much quicker and an aggressive rehab time is very possible. Santana had his surgery back in September and was able to show off his arm at a showcase, so let’s call it five months for him. That’s only a bit quicker than position players often come back, but it’s still a nice outcome.

Santana had a horrible 2020 after going 20/20 in 2019. If the elbow contributed or if he can just get close to those levels, that’s not a bad spot for the Red Sox. Santana will first have to make the team and then find a role, but as a utility guy, there’s opportunity and at worst, Santana could show what he can do in Pawtucket — err, Worcester.

Lorenzo Cain OF MIL (strained quad)

The same day the Brewers sign Jackie Bradley, news comes out that Lorenzo Cain is dealing with a mild quad strain. Reports from Robert Murray have this as “very minor” and my source concurs, so don’t connect the Bradley deal to any thought that Cain is going to be out for an extended period. This is a deal the Brewers have been working on a while and fits with their “too many outfielders” pattern from 2018.

Cain should be back quickly and has the DH available to him during spring training, but won’t in ‘21. The Brewers will have plenty of options in the outfield as needed, though again, this shouldn’t be something that affects Cain more than a week, let alone into the season.

Quick Cuts:

Max Fried will miss at least a few days and one spring start after a ‘close contact’ with a positive COVID result. He’s tested negative and will continue to test while away from the team per policy. He can work out on his own, so I don’t expect a significant drop-off or delay … The Astros have a number of players, including Luis Garcia, that will be away from the team due to COVID protocols. It’s unclear whether this is close contact or a positive within the organization, but how long they’re away is the key here and telling to what happened. Late word is that as many as ten pitchers are affected … Bryan Baker has a mild UCL sprain. While the Jays are calling this a Grade I sprain, even minor sprains can force reconstruction. Most surgeons say 25-33 percent tears require surgical intervention. No word on what, if any, treatment Baker will have … Seth Lugo is making some progress after having a bone chip removed from his pitching elbow in mid-February. He’ll start ramping up soon, but won’t make the start of the season … Max Stassi is at DH for the Angels, coming back after hip labrum repair last fall. He’s still a ways from catching so how he hits could determine whether or not he makes the team at all … The low incidence of heart issues in athletes post-COVID is very good news.