Under The Knife 3/31/21

Last Day Quick Hits

I’m keeping things short today for a reason. We tend to get a lot of last minute injuries - some real, some roster - and I want to make this an updatable document. No, I won’t flood your inbox, but remember to check the website (undertheknife.substack.com) for updates. One email, lots of website updates, is how this will work.

Also, today is the last free day. I hope you’ve enjoyed this fifteen day run of free content and that you’ll consider supporting my work for another baseball season. No matter what, UTK will run through the end of the 2021 baseball season, but I do need to grow this to make it sustainable. I know there’s a lot of great content out there and there’s only so many things you can subscribe to, but I don’t think there’s anyone that will give you the insight or feedback that I do in terms of injuries and the little weird things that I hear talking with sources around the game.

Pitch done, let’s get to the injuries. Did I mention you should check the website throughout the day to make sure you don’t miss anything? Just look at what might happen this season …

George Springer OF JAY (strained oblique)

Oblique strains aren’t six week injuries any more. Humans have had obliques for centuries, but it seemed we really got obliques in baseball about 2002. There’s been a lot of practice in that time with them due to the sheer number. First, we learned there’s a high recurrence risk, so a near shutdown was instituted for the first few weeks. That’s been modified and now the oblique is isolated, but there’s exercises that can be done. Also, guided injections into the strain’s site really help, cutting the time to return almost in half.

Which means that George Springer’s Grade II strain is just bad timing. Having it a week ago - just two weeks before Opening Day - didn’t give even a better timeline time to get ready. Springer’s not out for weeks - maybe a week - but he’s also not back for Opening Day either. The team will be slightly conservative with this, and get a bit of relief not having to introduce the team at home without their big new signing. Springer will be back in the lineup far before the Jays get back to Skydome.

Framber Valdez SP HOU (fractured finger)

“Very, very exciting and very good” is the quote from Astros pitching coach Brent Strom. What that refers to is unknown, but in relation to Framber Valdez, we have to think that it’s more than just “he’s not out for the season any more.” Instead, word from my sources indicate that they think Valdez will begin throwing soon and could be back in the rotation by May.

There’s still a couple questions to be answered. Will the finger hold up? Will the finger alter the way Valdez grips or throws the ball? Once we have those, then it comes down to how to ramp him back up. Right now, the Astros have four pitchers out that should be in their rotation - Valdez, Justin Verlander, Forrest Whitley, and Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi probably doesn’t sign with the Astros if Valdez and Whitley’s injuries didn’t happen almost simultaneously. If the Astros can get two of those back by May, that goes a long way in the AL West.

Jose Leclerc RP TEX (sprained elbow)
Jonathan Hernandez RP TEX (sprained elbow)

The Rangers bullpen got thin in a hurry. Jose Leclerc went from re-established closer after a lost season to losing another one to Tommy John rehab. Jonathan Hernandez was the likely fill-in, but he has his own elbow sprain. Hernandez’s is small, so the team is hoping treatment (likely PRP) and rest will have him back around midseason.

In the meantime, the Rangers have a bullpen issue, not just a closer problem. The unlikely pair of Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush are the most likely at the back end of the pen, but with Joely Rodriguez (ankle), Brett Martin (back), and DeMarcus Evans (shoulder) all starting the season on the DL, it’s unclear who gets the ball in most roles. This is very clearly a team in transition and with prospect development a black box from the outside, some of the Rangers top pitching prospects could need to accelerate at a time the team is doing things like sending Hans Crouse back to Down East (Single-A).

Yankees fans should note this one, because Leclerc had the same kind of shoulder injury - a teres major strain - that Corey Kluber had. That’s not to say that Kluber’s elbow is suddenly at risk, but the teres major strain is so rare that having two on the same team had never happened before, at least not recorded.

Ji Man Choi 1B TBR (arthritic knees)

A couple cortisone injections didn’t help Ji Man Choi, so he’s going to the next option, which is arthroscopic surgery to clean out the knees and potentially work on some cartilage and the meniscuses. The current word is that he’ll be out about a month, but that will all depend first on the result of the surgery. There’s a chance that this surgery will solve nothing. If he does get relief, the rehab isn’t significant, but he’ll need to let the knees heal up, then get back into hitting.

The Rays are openly criticizing Choi’s conditioning and the hope is that he’ll get more serious about that in order to stave off problems in the future, not to mention keeping his job. That latter part is really about whether he can produce at a reasonable price, but less time in the training room would be nice as well.

Carlos Carrasco SP NYM (strained hamstring)

The Mets finally have Carlos Carrasco throwing, but it’s on the side, then soon at the alt site. He’s at least a few weeks of building up and given the timeline, the Mets might just wait for those first few minor league games to get him some action, assuming that the minor leagues start when planned, if at all.

This kind of injury-enforced delay was the big worry with Carrasco. In the few times he’s been able to throw this spring, he’s looked solid enough, certainly enough to dream on. The Mets’ rotation is good as is, but with a healthy Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard a bit further off, it could be flat dominant. Right now, the biggest issue is patience and hoping that something else doesn’t crop up with Carrasco in the meantime.

Quick Cuts:

Eloy Jimenez underwent surgery to repair his pectoral tendon. It went as expected with a six month normal recovery timeline. My expectation is he won’t play this season … Nate Pearson isn’t throwing bullpens yet, but those won’t happen until at least next week. Where that puts his return to the Jays rotation is unclear … Dinelson Lamet is slowly pushing his pitch limits up, but he’s also showing some command issues. Without the minor league season to work with, Lamet’s rehab could be a black box over the next few weeks … Sonny Gray will pitch in an intrasquad on Wednesday and will set up to take his turn the third time through the rotation … Jake Odorizzi is still ramping up from his late start, but I’m confused why its taking this long. Odorizzi wasn’t sitting around waiting and shouldn’t have been starting at zero. Feels like something more is happening … The Rangers will probably have Sam Huff up at some point this season, but it won’t be Opening Day. The power hitting catcher has missed the spring with a hamstring strain … Shohei Ohtani developed a blister last time he pitched, but it’s not affecting him at the plate. There is some worry he might need to move back a day, which is a bit more problematic for the Angels’ complex plan for him and the rotation than it sounds … The more I hear about David Price as a “multi-inning reliever”, the more I’m convinced the Dodgers are quietly putting him in place to be the tandem pairing with Julio Urias and Dustin May to keep their inning loads down. If those two look good and Bobby Miller gets off to a good start, Price is going to be trade bait for a contender … Dansby Swanson’s calf strain is minor and he was back in the lineup Tuesday night. Atlanta thinks he’ll be back for Opening Day, though the team has the roster constructed so that they could sit him for a couple of days if absolutely necessary … Eduardo Rodriguez is dealing with ‘dead arm’ which is merely system fatigue. This was another issue that once took weeks that is down to days, though Rodriguez’s everything is complicated by his long fight with COVID … Michel Baez is the latest Padre to head for Tommy John. As good as this team is, they have to get their pitching arm injury situation figured out in a hurry.

Updates (with time):

Kyle Lewis looks to be starting the year on the IL with a bruised knee. The Mariners are being cautious and don’t want to expose their ROY until the knee is healed completely … Mike Yastrzemski is cleared to play tomorrow after negative X-rays on his hand. Simple HBP, so I’ll make my annual pitch for better protective gloves … Robbie Ray starts the year on the IL, but there’s no clarity on who takes his rotation slot in Toronto yet … Luke Voit had his meniscus surgery over the weekend with Dr. Chris Ahmad. His timeframe remains around a month for a return … Michael Lorenzen had a setback with his shoulder rehab. I’m told it’s significant and that he could miss a month or more … Adalberto Mondesi hits the IL to start the year due to a late oblique strain. He should be out near the 10 days … Felix Pena hits the IL with his hamstring strain. It’s expected, and a retro … more updates as they come ahead of roster lock and Opening Day!