Under The Knife 3/29/24

The Other Possibility

A lot has been made of ESPN both attempting to get the NFL or NBA to buy in, and at the same time trying to find some path to streaming success. The latter seems to be a multi-track approach - ESPN+ … no, this Warner/Fox joint venture that no one understands … no, a real ESPN streamer, but it will cost you way more at the same time everything’s wrapping into Disney and the CEO’s under outside pressure. It’s a mess.

At the same time as ESPN is bleeding viewers and less relevant in an age where we’ve already seen the highlights and know the score, all the leagues are still playing to it. Yes, it’s the TV money, but if you don’t think one of the concepts of that joint venture isn’t to keep that TV money under pressure — call it a luxury tax, not a cap — then you’re wrong. ESPN is trying to find a way to make being less relevant and less viewed in a brutal media marketplace somehow remain profitable. PJ Vogt had a great podcast about it (and maybe an answer for smaller places) and it’s scary.

Now to be clear, I have no ill will towards ESPN. I worked there years back, enjoyed my time, and moved on. But if I’m any of the sports leagues, there’s no way I’m buying in to ESPN’s future. In fact, if I’m MLB, I’d do the opposite.

I doubt Rob Manfred will ask me, but my suggestion is that MLB and its teams simply stop cooperating with ESPN on anything but contractual things. ESPN still has TV rights, but why do more? ESPN will bend over backwards for the NFL and the NBA has been a cash machine for all its networks. MLB hasn’t been and they’ve been given short shrift. ESPN and MLB are no longer aligned and frankly, neither needs the other one. ESPN’s known that for a while, but MLB could wake up and begin collecting all it’s rights into a single package.

What’s the danger? That MLB gets pushed off SportsCenter the way the NHL did when they left the network? Did that actually hurt the NHL in any way? It didn’t help, but I’m not sure it hurt. MLB has always been ahead of the curve, with its DTC products, with it’s own streaming system (which now powers ESPN and Disney’s streams, a nice $6 billion in the owners’ pockets.) It could be again. Get rid of blackouts. Promote the product. Keep more money. Not be behind every other sport and make MLB Network the place to see baseball. (I say Network and mean the app, but not the RSNs and eventually, probably not the linear channel.)

Let ESPN become the NFL Network it’s always wanted to be. Let it collect the rights packages with Warner and Fox and show even more college football, if that’s possible. Bet on yourself, baseball … wait, let me rephrase that given the week’s issues. Invest in yourself, baseball, and be the destination for a sport that you could have been a decade ago, if you just hadn’t been addicted to that easy TV money.

I’ll make my case even more strongly. Just look at this picture from the first game of the season, the first we could watch in MLB’s Apple Vision app*:

This is the promise of Statcast that’s been building for nearly fifteen years, a new kind of league-enabled broadcast that uses data, but also allows the standard broadcast. Anything could be in that screen up there. It’s the home and away feeds now, but imagine if MLB put together a top-notch, loves-baseball broadcast team. Get rid of blackouts, figure out how to add ads to keep the subscription price reachable, and then watch the money roll in. Ok, I get that the Vision Pro is about a decade from ubiquity, but the whole thing doesn’t need it. It needs the app, the network, and the will to do it while evolving.

There’s no ESPN app on Vision, by the way.

Or, I guess team owners and league officials can just hope that Netflix has some money left after their NBA deal. Their choice.

Let’s get to the injuries:

KODAI SENGA, SP NYM (strained shoulder)

I’ve seen a couple outlets refer to Kodai Senga’s throwing program as a “normal Spring Training type progression.” It’s not and that’s a good thing. There’s more sports science and monitoring on Senga than most, because that’s one of the things the Mets are good at. It’s not perfect, or Senga might not have been injured in the first place. The better question is whether the throwing protocol he’s on will get him back quicker, better, or both.

I say “better” in terms of durability, or at least fully healed, not in pitching terms. Shoulder capsules are tough injuries because even with improved surgeries, the outcome is still difficult. Tightening things up in the back move things in the front or shift the internal structures. It’s better than capsulorapphy, a very technical surgery which basically heats up the structures and welds them together and is seldom used on throwers any more.

By avoiding surgery, Senga will have all his natural pieces in place, and hopefully healed up naturally as well, or as naturally as you consider PRP injections. Right now, everything has gone to plan and that plan was stated as having him back throwing a week earlier than he did, then back to the roster by early May. We’ll have to see if that still holds. Our next big clue will be when he goes from flat ground to mound, and if there’s any longer tossing in there between.

ROYCE LEWIS, 3B MIN (strained quad)

This is what you get from Royce Lewis, all in one game. First he hit a no-doubt homer, but then he left the game with what the Twins noted as a “tight quad”. Lewis appeared to yell as the injury happened, either out of pain or surprise, and he clearly limped as he went into the dugout under his own power. How he responds to treatment will determine the next steps, but I would be surprised if he doesn’t go to the 10-day simply as a precaution. It’s short enough that missing about a week, especially with ever-changing weather, wouldn’t be the worst idea. Expect scans as well.

Royce Lewis was the first “real” injury of the 2024 season, pulling up after rounding second and grabbing at his leg. He left the game, which makes sense with his history and a medical staff that knows it will be judged on how well it keeps Lewis, Byron Buxton, and some young pitchers healthy this season in a winnable division. It’s not just that Lewis is talented, but that having as much of the team’s talent on the field at the same time is key for every team. Losing Lewis this early is a slap, especially to a soft tissue injury.

BLAKE SNELL, SP SFG (no injury)
JORDAN MONTGOMERY, SP ARZ (no injury)
MICHAEL LORENZEN, SP TEX (neck strain)

With three of the late-signing pitchers, the question is how quickly they’ll be able to slot in to their new teams. Blake Snell is on the Giants OD roster, despite the fact that he’s scheduled to make a minor league start. Michael Lorenzen is expected to be placed on the IL - though where the neck strain came from, I’m just not sure - to get at least one start. No plan is public yet for Jordan Montgomery, but with all of them, the work they were able to do (and document) has them just a bit away from ready. This isn’t a normal scenario, so I’m not sure how it fits in the rules.

But the clear thing is, they’re not starting from zero. It’s unclear if these minor league games are even necessary. If there was a rule against it, teams could play them at the Complex, XST, or just do sim games. The pitchers kept up their work, though it’s not clear where or how, but the Boras Institute was definitely monitoring them. While the new teams might not have gotten to oversee or monitor them, once they signed the deal, they likely got all the data and information they needed to figure out exactly where they should be.

The interesting part is that each of them was able to get to roughly the same point in readiness. Each “needs” one start to gear up, but that means they likely had OD as the goal during their ramp. It’s hardly guessing and that months-long process seems to have delivered them in condition to start off and get ready for a season they all are invested in going well. Those opt-outs aren’t there for the heck of it.

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