Under The Knife 3/29/21
Just Making It to Thursday
It’s the last week of spring training. Really, it’s over. The work has been done, teams are packing up the trucks and heading out to those last few exhibitions, often starting the travel that will be a bit more complex this year. One team - the Astros - are making a pit stop to get vaccinated, so whether other teams are able to get vaccinated as more states open up to the age cohort MLB teams fall in, should be interesting and could make travel easier and safer as well as hopefully ending the kind of tight protocols that have pushed people out of camp, including with the soon-to-be vaccinated Astros.
Right now, it’s all about not getting hurt and getting whoever’s on the edge back to the stage where they can play. We’ll see a lot of very conservative moves, quick pulls, and the like as teams want to make it to Opening Day as injury-free as possible. The injuries all seem to be in a normal range this season and while injuries aren’t good, anything normal is. With all that’s gone on, changing balls, rule changes, and everything else going on in the world, one thing being normal feels positive.
Remember, UTK is free until Opening Day. I hope those of you that have picked it up during March or who are free subscribers have enjoyed what you have seen and will consider becoming a full subscriber. We’ll go back to the standard setup on Opening Day (Thursday), when I’ll have a special piece as a bit of a reward for subscribers. For now, free and paid, let’s get to it:
Juan Soto OF WAS (strained calf)
Juan Soto’s calf strain/cramp — let’s call it a mild strain — was tested this weekend by running. He did turns on Sunday and the reports are that everything went as well as was expected. The Nats are being ultraconservative, because as I said above in this last week, every team is just trying to make it to Opening Day with their best players in as good a place as they can be. Is Soto a hundred percent? No, but they’re far more concerned about Thursday than they are about the next couple days. We’re going to learn nothing if Soto plays or doesn’t.
The likely course is that Soto will play in B games to keep an IL move possible and to have more control about how he’s used. The IL move isn’t likely, to be clear, and the play in those games is just for confidence more than a thing he ‘needs’ to do before he gets back on the big field. Playing as a DH is possible and those extra at bats to make sure he runs the bases could be in play, so you might see a weird stat line.
You’ll note that all of the focus is on running. Soto is hitting in the cages, again, a very controlled setting where Soto could step away at any time if he felt the slightest thing or if the staff saw something they didn’t like. All signs right now point to Soto being ready for Opening Day and for another season where he could well fight for the mythical-but-real “best player in the game” title.
Luke Voit 1B NYY (torn meniscus)
Last year’s home run leader (asterisk included for short season) will start the season on the IL. He’ll have a partial meniscectomy and will miss around a month. The Yankees say he’ll be shut down for three weeks, so the question will be how quickly he can tune his swing back up. There’s a lot of rotary force in Voit’s swing so his knees will have to be able to stand up to it and be a stable base. I’m a bit concerned about that, but the Yankees have put a big focus on rehab and conditioning, so I feel better about it here than I would were Voit on most other teams.
Meniscectomies tend to have few complications and seldom extend past that first two to four week timeframe. The Yanks will use Jay Bruce at first base and hope that the rest of the team has enough power - and they should - to get by for the first month. There is some risk here for a shorter term loss of power or for Voit to struggle to get his swing back, but again, I feel like the Yankees are better set up to avoid this. While I think Voit will be off his full-season projections for anything counting, Voit was on pace for a 60 homer season had last year been 162 games. He could easily put up somewhere near the 30-HR mark he’s widely been projected at even missing more than a month.
* Somehow autocorrect switched “meniscectomy” to “vasectomy” at the start of the first paragraph and I almost didn’t catch it. That could have been funny, or confusing.
George Springer OF TOR (strained oblique)
George Springer might not be playing center field for the Blue Jays on Opening Day. His oblique strain hasn’t progressed quite as rapidly as the Jays had hoped and with just a few days to get him back to running and fielding, he could be limited to DH for the first couple days of what’s going to be an odd looking start for the Jays.
Oblique strains usually affecting hitting more than anything, but the rotational forces also occur when throwing and with the location of Springer’s strain, hip turns are also something that’s affecting him, hence the problem with fielding. The Jays appear to be setting up their roster with this possibility in mind, keeping Jonathan Davis around to potentially take CF for the first week or so.
Springer isn’t far off, shown by the DH possibility, and the Jays do tend to be one of the more conservative teams when it comes to RTP. It feels like DH is the play they’re headed for, but things could change as they test and watch him over the next few days, though his big new deal makes it much easier for everyone to think long term.
Robbie Ray SP JAY (bruised elbow)
Robbie Ray won’t make his first start due to his elbow injury.
That sentence sounds bad, but let’s keep in mind that Ray’s injury is a painful bruise, the result of a fall, not of pitching. Ray’s downtime and the pain and inflammation kept him from pitching for a bit, so his return is slightly delayed - nothing more, per my best Jays source. There’s no expectation that Ray will have any problem physically, but with the schedule and the way the team had to reconfigure the rotation due to Ray and other injuries, it’s simpler to skip him the first time around.
My worry here is that any residual effects might cost Ray even more in the way of command, which has been his struggle. A lack of work can often lead that way and Ray’s 2020 campaign was a wreck. The Jays see talent they believe they can salvage and if so, he’s shown the stuff to be ace-level, but he’s never held that level very long. Falling down stairs doesn’t help, but it’s too early to give up on the experiment.
Brusdar Graterol RP LAD (fatigue)
Brusdar Graterol throws the ball real hard. Then again, to throw real hard, you have to throw. Graterol had what the Dodgers refer to as an “inconsistent” offseason and hasn’t gotten into a single spring game yet. As a reliever, to not be built up is a bit surprising, which means he must have done almost nothing over the offseason and would have a chronic workload low enough to not even get back to a normal short man setup during the length of camp.
Which of course makes everyone think that another 100 mph guy has broken down, but that’s not what the Dodgers have said. They’ve focused almost entirely on Graterol’s offseason. If he didn’t throw, the explanations are that he’s lazy and didn’t do what he was supposed to, something the Dodgers could have known early, or that he was sore/injured from the season and simply couldn’t throw during part. Neither is particularly good if you’re the Dodgers.
The easy thing to do would be sending Graterol to the minors to start, but yeah, no minors yet. Getting Graterol geared up with sim games is going to be tougher, but really it’s more controlled and his workload ramp shouldn’t be this difficult. It bears watching, but again, will be complicated by the lack of visibility into players for the first month (or more) without minor league games.
Clarke Schmidt SP NYY (strained forearm)
A flexor strain is all too common in pitchers, but an extensor strain? That’s a bit more rare or at least rare in that the Yankees made it known. Some of the elbow inflammations and sorenesses we’ve seen through the years are likely this, but it’s notable that this is the description.
The Yankees pushed Schmidt to the 60-day IL, despite Aaron Boone saying that the injury is getting better and that Schmidt’s return to throwing is imminent. That indicates that the Yankees are still thinking of him as a starter or at least that he’s part of the depth behind what could be a fragile rotation.
Aside from Gerrit Cole - who does throw really hard - the Yankees are relying on comebacks from Luis Severino and Corey Kluber, plus youngsters like Deivi Garcia. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Yankees go eight deep or more with starters this year, so taking their time and building Schmidt back up keeps that option open.
Robinson Chirinos C FA (fractured wrist)
The Yankees made a surprising cut, letting Robinson Chirinos go as he recovers from wrist surgery to help the fracture he suffered. This is a four to six week injury with limited consequences after, so this isn’t that they didn’t think Chirinos would be back or that he’d be diminished. This is the “we decided to go another direction” thing, one where they respect the player enough to let him catch on with another organization.
Chirinos is very likely to do just that. The fit isn’t apparent now, but many teams will be looking for a veteran backup that can work with the pitchers, call a good game, and hit well enough to account for the roster slot. There are a bunch of possible fits, so Chirinos’ agent might just lay back and wait for an injury or underperformance before swooping in once Chirinos is ready.
The Yankees are pushing in on Gary Sanchez for now, but keep an eye on Austin Wells, last year’s first round pick. He didn’t make his debut last year after being drafted out of Arizona, but he could move fast, especially if Sanchez’s contact problems continue. There are questions about whether Wells can stick at catcher, with a lot of Kyle Schwarber comps, but it’s early. Sanchez has a 279 OBP in spring, which just isn’t good enough.
Quick Cuts:
David Price is scheduled to throw a sim game on Monday. He missed his last start with a non-COVID illness and should be on track to make his normal first start for the Dodgers over the weekend … The Cards pushed KK Kim to the IL. He’ll head to the alt site for at least two sim games, then the hope is he’ll be ready to step into the Cards rotation. That sounds like mid-April to me … Reigning ROY Kyle Lewis may begin the year on the IL with a knee issue. The Mariners will make a decision by tomorrow. Jake Fraley or Taylor Trammell could shift to center if Lewis misses time … Leury Garcia has been dealing with shoulder soreness, which seems to be contagious in left field there. No indication he’ll miss real time yet … Mike Fiers’ psoas strain will start him off on the IL, so the A’s will need to decide who steps into that slot. This type of injury can linger, so I expect more than a minimum stay for Fiers … Joe Kelly is making progress after missing most of the spring with a shoulder strain. It’s not enough to make it for Opening Day, so he’ll start on the IL and at the alt … Michael Lorenzen will be skipped for his first turn, but the Reds haven’t made a final decision about whether he heads to the IL yet. That will depend on how and who makes the final rotation … It isn’t just pitchers hurt for the Reds. Nick Senzel has been out with a groin strain, but he took batting practice over the weekend and the team thinks he could be ready for Opening Day. If not, shortly after … Those watching Luke Voit should note that Kole Calhoun had a similar procedure on March 3 and is back to batting practice now. That four to six week return sounds good, even if he ends up more towards the six … “Lovehandle contusion” was Dave Robert’s description of the injury after Corey Knebel was hit in the side by a comebacker. He’ll be fine, but it’s probably a colorful bruise today … Felix Hernandez opted out with the Orioles, after his sore elbow didn’t give him the playing time to make the rotation. This could be the end of The King … The Astros are having issues with the COVID protocols again, forcing out several players, including Myles Straw … Scott Oberg isn’t your example. He’s a human who has a medical issue. He had surgery to remove a blood clot, the second such procedure he’s had. He’s reportedly making a decision about his career, so good luck and good health to him no matter what he decides.
If Jack Leiter falls to the Tigers in June’s draft, I’m becoming a fan. That team could end up loaded with pitching, but I’m scratching my head about how Leiter could fall farther than two (behind his teammate, Kumar Rocker.)
