Under The Knife 3/27/24

Opening Eve

There have been a lot of moves, done largely because of the realities of breaking camp. Things will leak after people are informed of decisions, and decisions have to be made to make flights. While moves can come all the way up to game time, they’re largely done the week before camp breaks and notice is given shortly after that. There are few surprises any more. People understand the rules and there’s more transaction analysis than ever before. Fans get the Triple-A boomerang, most of the options rules, and contract terms, if not the reasons and statistical support teams use to make them.

IL moves are largely roster moves at this point in the season. 10- and 15-day timers have already been set, with 60-man moves designed to shift rosters around without exposing too much or breaking one of those esoteric rules that would expose a player to waivers of one type or another. Jesse Chavez might be forever, but rosters are ever changing. Plans made in the off-season sometimes don’t even make it to April, let alone November.

Jackson Holliday might not open the season in the bigs, but Jackson Chourio will. Paul Skenes will make a start or two for Indianapolis, a bit of a surprise, while Wyatt Langford will be a day one DH for the Rangers. I said last year that this felt like an accelerated generational turnover in baseball and with this much young talent burning through the systems, I feel even more strongly that we’re seeing that and that the game has more talent than ever before. Keeping it on the field? That we still need to work on.

Next time we meet, there will be baseball in America in 2024, so let’s get to the injuries:

BRYAN WOO, SP SEA (inflamed elbow)

There’s a lot of guys now who I will call “late velocity” guys. Pitching development has come to a point where guys can go from even the upper eighties to triple digits with some regularity. 95 isn’t special anymore; it’s almost table stakes. But it does often come with a cost. Not only is there more force and likely stress in the delivery, the system often hasn’t adjusted as quickly. Muscles get bigger before tendons and ligaments adapt, causing big problems.

Bryan Woo was a sixth round pick who threw a lot of pitches, had quirky mechanics, and got up in the mid to high nineties while shooting up to the majors. He had 18 starts last year, plus a stint on the IL, which is where he’ll start this year. Both issues have been elbow inflammation and that’s never a great sign. There’s no indication this is any worse than last year and Woo is likely to get back in the rotation once the Seattle med staff figures out how to calm this down. Maintenance might have to be re-assessed as well with the recurrence and there’s certainly risk here of worse injuries down the line.

The Mariners will likely go with Emerson Hancock as the SP5, pulling him back from Tacoma. If Woo is only out a few weeks, there’s no worry as that’s exactly the role they expected to have Hancock in this season. The downside is there’s nothing behind Hancock in a very thin upper-level rotation. Jason Churchill - who knows the M’s system as well as anyone - suggests next up might be Jhonathan Diaz, who he describes as an interesting lefty. The M’s picked him up out of the Angels org, so any injury past one gets problematic.

You know what? Let’s make this one free as an Opening Week gift to everyone. Now, what do I need to do to make you a paying subscriber?

PAUL SEWALD, RP ARZ (strained oblique)

Paul Sewald was a smart trade and a good arm for the Diamondbacks last year. Adjusting a pen is one of the things a good front office can do on the fly, if they’re willing to give up some talent and if they assess things correctly. The D-Backs did both and got more than what they expected.

They’ll have to wait to see Sewald back in the late innings, as he’ll start this season on the shelf with a moderate oblique strain. He won’t need a big buildup, of course, but it could still be a month before he’s back. It’s as simple as that, meaning Torey Lovullo and Brent Strom will have to juggle a bit with the pen until he’s back. They weren’t a strict save org last year, especially in the playoffs, but that’s not very standard. I’d expect Kevin Ginkel to get first dibs on the high leverage innings.

The Jordan Montgomery deal won’t affect this at all, but it could juggle things a bit in terms of personnel. We don’t know yet when Montgomery will be added to the roster, but Ryne Nelson will be back in the pen when he is and that’s not a bad thing. The D-Backs don’t have as much ready pitching talent on the cusp as they do positional talent, so adding Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart play at maximizing both the “now” roster and the Brent Strom effect while not giving up anything for the future.

KEVIN GAUSMAN, SP TOR (inflamed shoulder)

Kevin Gausman looked good, but did he look good enough for long enough for the Jays? Seven strikeouts in three plus is pretty good and the rest of the numbers and data were all positive as well. Assuming he comes through the 52-pitch outing with no issues and recovers well, my guess is that he’ll pitch in the first week of the season. My guess is that’s April 1, no foolin’.

Again, a guess that Gausman’s step up in workload would be 65-75 pitches. That should be enough - let’s assume he gets into the fifth with that. It’s not ideal but off-days and an assumably rested pen should make it easy to deal with. Bowden Francis probably steps in for Alek Manoah, but Mitch White, Yariel Rodriguez, or even (dare I say it?) Ricky Tiedemann could slot in or just back him in a shadow/tandem way.

The shoulder fatigue was a bit scary. We’ve come a long way since dead arm and not knowing how to properly ramp pitchers up, but we still have a long way to go as well. It’s hard for me to point out, even to people my age, just how far things have come in terms of sports medicine and sports science while at the same time not making progress on some of the things I’d have expected to long ago be eliminated. Someone pointed out that back in 2009, my dog Simon had the equivalent of ACL surgery where the ligament was replaced by kevlar fiber. I asked why that couldn’t be done in humans, but fifteen years later, a variant on that is being done in knees, ankles, shoulders, and now elbows. I don’t know what will be going on in 2039, but I hope we make as much progress in the upcoming 15 years as we have in the last 15.

BRYAN REYNOLDS, OF PIT (inflamed back)

Bryan Reynolds is an odd player. Being in Pittsburgh, it’s tough to tell just how good he is, but even more, there’s almost no public persona. He’s an All Star, a guy with a big contract, and what do most people know about him? Absolutely nothing. Quick - where’s he from? Where’d he go to college? (Baltimore and Vandy, by the way.) Even his interviews are boring:

It’s ok to be boring and be a good baseball player. One doesn’t come with the other and frankly, most teams would like a good, boring player who doesn’t cause much disruption but shows up when it’s his turn to sign autographs. I asked a couple people who have been around Reynolds and none had anything bad to say, so don’t think I’m knocking him. This is really more on the Pirates, who have their first really exciting player in a while in Skenes. Who was the last - Andrew McCutchen?

All that aside, Reynolds has missed the last few games in Brandenton with a sore back. The team has called it “mid-back soreness”, which doesn’t tell us much. Sources tell me it’s just spasms and that no one is worried about it. Reynolds is expected to start OD for the Pirates and not miss much if any time. If you like the prop bets, Reynolds might not play if it’s really cold or wet the first few weeks to make sure this back issue doesn’t become more of an issue, but that’s about all of the effect.

EMMET SHEEHAN, SP LAD (strained forearm)
WALKER BUEHLER, SP LAD (sprained elbow/rehab)
CLAYTON KERSHAW, SP LAD (strained shoulder/rehab)

While the Dodgers deal with other matters, their pitching remains the one that I feel that most are overlooking. This is not a deep staff despite the investment and we’ve seen that there may be an adjustment period for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If they don’t have two solid aces at the top, the bottom starts looking like a bigger problem. The first is health and depth, obviously interrelated.

The positive is that Walker Buehler went four innings in a sim game and all the reports are positive. Buehler could go on a rehab assignment as soon as the weekend, with the location still TBD. Buehler could stay at the complex, but Rancho Cucamonga (A) will be home the week of the ninth and in nearby Lake Elsinore the weekend prior. The proximity likely make that a better option. Buehler’s not far away and his return only depends on continued good recoveries and the Dodgers deciding just how deep they need him to go in a game before starting him.

It’s a bit further off for Emmet Sheehan. He’ll face some hitters this week and a rehab assignment might not be long after that, but he’s a bit behind Buehler in terms of chronic workload. Again, the Dodgers will have to decide just how deep they need him to go, especially with two fresh-off-rehab pitchers potentially in the rotation. Ryan Yarbrough could easily open for them or be the trail/tandem pitcher, which would make that easier. Sheehan’s absence opens up the spot for James Paxton and if he’s both good and healthy, the Dodgers depth issues won’t be apparent. No one smart thinks they have too many starters, but I’m sure someone will note it. (My crazy idea? Paxton as a high leverage reliever.)

While the Dodgers get ready to head back to LA, Clayton Kershaw’s doing his own rehab in Texas. This is planned and known, with the Dodgers perfectly happy with the program after surgery. Kershaw’s made some positive steps and the mid-season return is still on schedule, though I’m told he’ll amp things up in early May and that’s when things will get real.

One other note here: Walker Buehler appeared on an episode of “In The Kitchen”, talking about his use of the Mustard app to monitor his mechanics. I’m a big fan of Mustard for kids and even high school or collegiate athletes, but for a pro? There’s better solutions and ones that I know the Dodgers use. Buehler didn’t clarify whether he was using Mustard in places where something like Hawkeye or Kinatrax isn’t, but if you’re the Dodgers, do you want Buehler throwing when he isn’t being monitored, especially in the late stages of a rehab?

GARRETT MITCHELL, OF MIL (fractured hand)

Wrist and hand injuries can be a big problem. Having it happen now is bad for Garrett Mitchell and the Brewers. Just days from OD with the Brewers in the midst of a bit of turnover, Mitchell was expected to be a big part of the team, just like last year when an early season shoulder surgery sidelined him most of the year. It opened the door for Sal Frelick and here he is again. He’s heading for more imaging and a plan, depending on where the fracture is. Surgery to fixate it isn’t ruled out just yet.

Mitchell and Christian Yelich were supposed to be on either side of Jackson Chourio, who’s like Yelich was at the tail end of Ryan Braun’s career. Frelick was going to be the fourth and get some DH looks for a team that’s both surprisingly deep and flexible. Whether it’s enough to contend in an admittedly weak division remains to be seen, but the Brewers have seen more injuries than their usual over the past couple seasons, especially with younger players. They’ll have to right that part of the ship to hang with the Cubs and Cardinals again.

JAMESON TAILLON, SP CHC (strained back)

Speaking of the Cubs, their big question is their pitching. Having lost Marcus Stroman, they added Shota Imanaga* but is that a wash? The rest of the staff is back and we’ll have to see whether they can be better than last year under a new staff. They won’t have Jameson Taillon at OD, but his back issues seem to be taken care of and he’s expected back in April.

Taillon threw live batting practice and will play in a minor league game, but the Cubs haven’t decided whether he’ll go on a rehab assignment or build up with the team. Javier Assad will be the titular SP5, but the schedule means he might stay in the pen for at least the first week. Assuming Taillon is back on plan, Assad might only get one scheduled start.

It wasn’t that long ago that I was going to see Jameson Taillon (and Tyler Glasnow!) as the hot Pittsburgh pitching prospect making a short trip through Indy. Now it will be Paul Skenes and it’s a reminder that careers don’t always go the way we expect and the shape of them can be as convoluted as what we see in season.

*Every time I type Shota Imanaga, I start to type Shota Nakajima. I’m watching too much Top Chef and TOC. Speaking of reality tv, how is there not an American version of Physical 100 yet?

Quick Cuts:

Lars Nootbar didn’t avoid the IL, but the Cards think it will be a minimum stay or close as his fracture ribs slowed his hitting ramp … Dylan Carlson injured his shoulder in a collision with Jordan Walker. Carlson is having scans on Tuesday afternoon. Late word is it’s an AC sprain and he’s likely headed for the IL … ROMANO … Max Stassi missed all of ‘23 due to a family health issue and a hip problem. It was never clear how serious the hip problem was, but it has him on the IL to start ‘24. That’s not a good sign, especially since the team was already planning on starting Martin Maldonado for some reason … Oscar Gonzalez fractured his orbital after being struck. There’s no noted eye damage, but he may need surgery to fixate the bone … Manuel Margot took a HBP off his hand Tuesday. #paddedglove … The Jordan Montgomery deal is interesting in a lot of ways. The thing I’m most curious about is how quickly he can be ready. He’s dealt with being traded so this should be the same, assuming his chronic workload is up. And if it is, it’s another nail in spring training as training’s coffin.