Under The Knife 3/26/25

Tomorrow, "Real" Injuries

My typing is changing because of auto-complete, auto-correct, and whatever auto-we call what the AIs are trying to do. There’s these odd pauses and I find myself waiting, hitting space in odd places, because I’m so used to what it does now. Autocorrect was a godsend for touchscreen phones. I’m genuinely not sure one can exist without the other and it’s largely useful. However, there’s some baseball names and medical terms where it just doesn’t get it. I mean, I can’t tell you how many times I type “Clay” instead of “Cody” when I’m writing about a Bellinger. There’s a few other players where there’s something locked in and I bet I do it with Justin Crawford when he comes up in the not-too-distant future. There’s no AI editors, yet, so mistakes will be mine to own for a while, so let’s get to the injuries:

JARED JONES, SP PIT (inflamed elbow)

It had been very quiet in Pittsburgh since the original news that Jared Jones was headed out for a second opinion on his elbow. There had been rumblings, but none I could confirm. On Tuesday, word came that there’s no ligament damage, but that Jones will be shut down for six weeks (including what he’s already done.) The best case is that he misses April and that I get a good look at him here in Indy. The worst case is …

… well, frankly I don’t know. The Pirates have sufficiently locked the info down on what this is that “six weeks” isn’t enough to really narrow it down much. Nerve? Flexor? Bone bruise? Face it, six weeks is the beige paint of the sports med world. It’s everywhere because it’s non-offensive and easy to paint over. It might as well be primer. Six weeks is easy to adjust, up or down, or to say “things changed.”

20 years ago, I would be banging down doors, almost literally, to figure this out, but I’m a bit more mellow these days. I’m not trying to get on ESPN and I’d rather be right than break news. This could be something like Shane McClanahan and the nerve issue, but Jones never had the single pain moment that usually signals that. The best guess is a flexor issue or some sort of muscle/tendon issue that should heal. However, we’ve seen those go sideways too many times and the Pirates, while not talking much, seem confident.

This one certainly bears watching and changes the Pirates outlook. Losing Jones for an extended period, or Paul Skenes, or any of the good young arms coming, takes out even the faint hope of a wild card push. Carmen Mlodzinksi takes the rotation spot for now, though Bubba Chandler isn’t far away and is likely on the same timeline as Skenes last year if he’s solid to dominant again at Triple-A. Also, keep an eye on Zander Mueth, who’s just a year out of high school, but could move very fast with his deceptive low slot and velocity.

MOOKIE BETTS, SS LAD (illness)

I’ve been talking about this illness, largely believed to be the standard flu, that is going around baseball and America. I had something a couple weeks back and it sucked for a weekend, but I didn’t find it that bad. We’re all different and this one is hitting some hard. Mookie Betts is one of those and he’s still struggling with weight and weakness, with one report having him down 20 pounds! This isn’t like me losing 20; Betts is skinny and doesn’t have twenty to give without losing some muscle mass. Not being able to hold food for a period also makes it tough to power the immune system, which can be a bad cycle.

Betts is healthy and in great shape, so he’s never been in danger of death, but flu can in some populations. For Betts, it’s about recovering to a normal state of homeostasis and building back first some energy and then building back some endurance which has surely been lost, either through the energy needed by the immune response, the lack of digestive energy, and loss of muscle mass. This will take more than protein shakes and creatine, but Betts and the Dodgers have great resources, so he’ll once again be better equipped than most to deal with it.

However, he has to deal with the calendar as well and Opening Day is this tomorrow. I don’t love the Thursday start, but baseball is baseball. Betts is touch and go for the series, as he was for the Japan series. The team would rather not have him overextended and having some sort of muscular or energy system issue that sets him back even further, but he did play Tuesday at short in the exhibition game. That’s a good sign, but even if he’s the Dodgers’ starting shortstop, they’ll have to manage him closely to get him just to his baseline.

MATT BRASH, RP SEA (sprained elbow)

Matt Brash announced his return with authority. His first pitch back in a competitive game was 98 and he struck out two while walking one in his 2/3 of an inning. It was a tight pitch count and I’m told he recovered well, needing no additional work than after a standard relief outing. The next step will be some more extended spring work and a rehab assignment at Tacoma, so he can work with the major league team. That’s pretty standard for upper level Mariners.

Brash’s May surgery was an Internal Brace repair, so getting him back ahead of a year isn’t the full promise, but it’s an improvement in baseball. The question now is where the Mariners put him. The expectation is he stays in the pen but that’s a high effort slot and we don’t have enough of this type of surgery to know whether one is better than the other. The big slider he has, I’m told, doesn’t put more torque on the elbow than his fastball, and he has a big piece of bracing in his elbow now that should help off-load some of that. I think early May seems reasonable now for his return, though when he starts that rehab assignment will tell us when it’s coming.

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ, SP BAL (inflamed elbow)

Like Jared Jones, Grayson Rodriguez’s imaging showed “no ligament or tendon damage”, though tendonitis is technically damage. It’s inflammation, which is usually accompanied with some level of strain, but we’ll go with it for now. Rodriguez has been throwing, with a mound session scheduled for Thursday. Doing that on Opening Day is either telling or odd scheduling and I think it’s the former. With Corbin Burnes gone, Rodriguez is functionally the ace here, along with Zach Eflin, but he’s the homegrown hope.

Rodriguez will have to build up some more and then do a rehab assignment before returning. At best, he’ll need a couple more weeks before heading out and the assignment is likely to be two or three starts. That puts a best case return right at the start of May, though I could see a situation where they decide to go with one low level rehab outing and the upper level start goes so well that the third isn’t needed.

As Rodriguez gets on the mound, the key will be that the elbow doesn’t go back to the inflamed status, that he recovers well enough to get his work in on the standard schedule, and that he doesn’t have to pause the build. We can worry about velocity and stuff as he gets closer, but for now, I just want to see steady progress back to the O’s.

LUIS GARCIA, SP HOU (sprained elbow)

Luis Garcia is headed for a second opinion on his elbow, which has simply not come back well from Tommy John surgery. At best, he’s altering his buildup, and he wasn’t going to be ready for the start of the season anyway. Depending on this next opinion, Garcia will likely stay in Florida to continue his rehab process for now, assuming he doesn’t need significant time off. The best case here is that he’s feeling some scar tissue which can be scraped out or some inflammation which can be fixed.

The timeline for a return is a complete unknown. Garcia hasn’t shown that he can get back to a mound and stay there, so whatever build he has will step back and perhaps need to restart. That means there’s almost no depth, especially with Miguel Ullola still down. Colton Gordon is the likely next man up if anyone else in the Astros rotation drops, though the hope is that Garcia and Lance McCullers will be ready before any of that happens. We’ll see with both, as setbacks seem standard here.

CONNOR NORBY, 3B MIA (strained oblique)

The Marlins are in a tough spot. They have some talent, especially on the pitching side, and with a new manager, everything should be aligned between the field and front office. However, they’re not contenders and being on the “treadmill of mediocrity” isn’t a good place to be. It’s hard to build a franchise by tearing it down, trading away popular talent, but it can also work on a long enough time horizon, and work really well if Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal are involved.

What the Marlins might come down to health. There’s a case to be made that this team loses big in division, trades away some talent to build more for the future, and comes out about like last year. To do so, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez have to get and stay healthy, as do a couple position players, or there’s no one to trade. A couple big years from some unexpected talent, someone making a leap a year early, and almost any team could be wild card caliber and make a run, especially with deep starters.

So the indications so far is more the former. Losing players like Connor Norby, hardly a household name but one of the more talented young bats, himself one of those returns on a deal, for a month with an oblique strain is exactly the thing they don’t need. These injuries happen, but limiting them and minimizing the time lost hasn’t been a strong suit here. Eric Wagaman is the likely fill in and this time last year, he was a Trash Panda at age-26. Anything can happen in a short sample period, but the Marlins need to keep guys like Norby and Jesus Sanchez, also a side-body injury, on the field.

WENCEEL PEREZ, OF DET (inflamed spine)

It’s not just that Wenceel Perez - one of those auto-correct players I mentioned above - is having an injection in his back, but that Parker Meadows is also out for at least that long with his nerve issue. Perez is just age-25 so this type of technical back injury isn’t a great sign and the rehab might have to be more conservative and base-building than one would expect versus getting a shot and feeling better. Add in that Matt Vierling is down with his shoulder issue! With all of them out, there’s an outfield slot that has to be filled.

The Tigers went out and grabbed Manuel Margot, who was a playoff outfielder not long ago and had been cut loose by the Brewers. Margot lost speed, going from 90th percentile to below average after his ‘22 knee sprain. Now, he’s a fill in and not seen as a direct CF guy, but Ryan Kreidler is going to need some assistance. He’d been sent down, but had to come back for the injury. At best, Margot could be a late career Kevin Kiermaier, but Kiermaier always had his speed. Maybe Leonys Martin is a better, or at least more hopeful comp.

If Riley Greene doesn’t shift over … well, yes, that’s Max Clark’s music you’re hearing. He hasn’t played above High-A, but a hot start at Double-A, where he’s expected to start, is going to force the issue if Perez and Meadows don’t come back well. Rushed? I don’t think so, though I’m admittedly goofy for Clark’s talent.

Quick Cuts:

I’m still working on the why, but Jordan Montgomery’s 2025 season is done as he heads for a Tommy John revision. It’s unclear as yet when the injury happens, but stop with the conspiracy theories. I know at least one team that looked at his medical info ahead of a potential trade last week and I know absolutely that no one does Tommy John surgery unless it’s necessary … Corey Seager had some sort of calf issue the last few days, but Chris Young seemed very confident he won’t miss real games … Sonny Gray also told the media that the flu has held his velocity back. Valid reason, but again, this should come back unless he had a Betts-class case … A Grade I+ hamstring strain starts Vinnie Pasquantino on the IL. Sal Perez will get most of the 1B action, I’m told … Spencer Strider (elbow) hits the IL in a procedural move as he continues to build up for a mid-April return … Same for Ronald Acuna Jr (knee), though this one seems less needed. With the injury to JuJu Watkins last night, I’m curious why we’re not seeing more on the new surgeries that can speed up returns here … Big stuff from Glenn Fleisig at ASMI on preventing injuries. I’ll have much more on that Friday.