Under The Knife 3/25/21
Another day, Another 80 Million dollars
Let’s get right to the injuries with a week to Opening Day!
Lance McCullers SP HOU (no injury)
Another day, another big contract for an injury risk. Let’s be clear - Lance McCullers is a known risk. Let’s also be clear - Tommy John cases are a known. Even for draft picks, a history of Tommy John is not disqualifying or particularly considered. You’ll see a “Lieber contract” now and again when someone is hurt and in active rehab, but otherwise, front offices and medical staffs essentially shrug at this.
I haven’t seen details on the deal but it’s a five year extension worth roughly $85 million. Depending on when it kicks in - probably next season - they’re getting him through at least his age-32 season at around a $16m per year value, when the value of a win is around $8m. That’s five years (plus one at $6m) at the point where free agents are going for higher and the qualifying offer is higher. That sounds like a good deal, especially since it avoids arbitration altogether.
Is McCullers a two win pitcher? He hasn’t been since his rookie season and wasn’t on pace in ‘20. He certainly has the talent, but the WAR is down largely because he’s never pitched enough to run it up. McCullers’ career to this point looks similar to someone you might not think of - Anibal Sanchez.* Sanchez’s slow start flipped on in his age-26 season and was a 2 WAR or better pitcher (up to 6.1!) for 6 of the next 11 seasons. That’s a long haul for anyone and a good career, but I think the Astros would take the age-similar 9.8 WAR Sanchez put up.
“Aside from Tommy John” sounds a bit like “Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?” but at this stage, it’s hardly worth mentioning. McCullers has been solid before and after the surgery and given the normal honeymoon period, most of McCullers’ new contract falls within that.
My real question is durability. McCullers, for various reasons, has never pitched 130 innings in a season. Prorate the 55 from last year all you want, it doesn’t equal having done 150 or 190. The difference between the two is huge and he’s going to have to at least do the latter to value out this contract. The Astros think he will and no one knows his arm better.
*The other comp I heard from multiple people I trust is Yovani Gallardo. I don’t see this one and no one could give me a good reason besides general build and character. Comps aren’t always the visible and easy, but this is one that I wanted to toss out there because maybe I’m missing something and that’s instructive to someone.
Fernando Tatis Jr SS SDP (bruised shoulder)
As expected, the Padres don’t think the shoulder injury to Fernando Tatis Jr is serious, but while images came back as expected, they’re still going to be a bit cautious. These games don’t count and the week they have to get him ready from even a slight deficit simply makes sense. Tatis is very passionate, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him push to come back quickly. However, you have a medical and coaching staff in place to make sure he comes back at the right time for all the circumstances.
Tatis’ images were all clean and most of the reports have the shoulder listed as a bruise. There’s no reason to think Tatis won’t be ready to play soon, perhaps as soon as this weekend, but again, the team is going to be very cautious here. I don’t think this should affect anything for Tatis and by this time next week, we’ll have forgotten all about it as Tatis tries to put together a full season that matches up with what he’s done in the first fractional seasons of his career.
Eloy Jimenez OF CWS (strained shoulder)
I can’t remember ever seeing someone injured on a defensive “steal a homer” kind of play, but Eloy Jimenez has solved that issue for me:
Word from the Sox is that the shoulder strain is minor and that Jimenez should miss minimal time, but that initial injury looked very much like a subluxation or dislocation. That would explain why the medical staff would have taken Jimenez immediately off the field the way they did.
Jimenez could DH, but Andrew Vaughn isn’t a good outfielder and has hit his way onto the team. Leury Garcia is a utility guy, so pushing him to left would constrain some of the options he opens up for the Sox, though Tony La Russa normally likes to have a set roster or roster construct.
There’s no talk of imaging or significant missed time, but this one bears watching without much time before Opening Day. It’s easy to say that an injury-prone player like Jimenez should play a “soft” field, not diving or making those kind of plays, but that’s a hard thing, especially with his diving instincts. The difference between good and great in baseball is often durability, so we’ll see how this kind of thing affects Jimenez ahead of an anticipated age-24 campaign.
Sonny Gray SP CIN (back spasms)
Sonny Gray is back in the pen, but he’s not likely to hit another spring mound for real. The Reds are likely to use a retro IL move on him to bring him back in the second week of the season. They may not need another starter - though they have them available - but most teams don’t want to be a player short, even for a week. They’ll grab another reliever or at the least, wait a bit on a decision for a player that might need to clear waivers or something along those lines.
Gray can do pretty much everything he needs to do in a controlled setting, with sim games, all the way through his return. He’ll likely stay with the team and do sim games, though the alt-site is also a possibility. (It’s a real unknown for a lot of teams, even at this stage, and it’s becoming a point of frustration.) Expect him to be slightly workload limited in the first start or two, but that shouldn’t be much off his norms, nor should it overtax the pen in any way.
One note here - with “roster expansion” to 26, but no September callups, this really isn’t an expansion. Last year’s ad hoc rules were essentially 30. Most teams are going to 13 or 14 pitchers, which is just too much with the three-batter rule. Teams will adjust to this, but it feels like even with the LOOGY gone, there’s still a period where managers are figuring this out. Do none of them play Strat, or even MLB The Show? The lack of simulation is something I feel is a big weak spot for managers. I always say that if I ran an NFL franchise, my coaching interview would be to watch them play Madden.
Nick Anderson RP TB (inflamed elbow)
Nick Anderson is only throwing 91. A few years ago, that statement is ridiculous but for a modern mid-nineties reliever, dropping four or five ticks on the gun is a big deal. The Rays have let Anderson have some time off from the first issue, but it hasn’t cleared up yet and Kevin Cash says they’re evaluating next steps. Anderson will throw Thursday, but could be headed for more tests if he’s not better.
The Rays - and I say this without malice - aren’t loyal. If you can’t produce, they’ll find someone who will, though they keep guys around for second chances and frankly buy just those kind of players that other orgs don’t have the patience or the eye for. If Anderson can’t get it done at the start of the season, the Rays have more guys who can. It’s a defining feature of the modern Rays and with both Peter Fairbanks and Diego Castillo at the back end with Anderson, the team can afford to give him the time to heal up if he can. If not, maybe it’s Shane Baz or JJ Goss or Caleb Sampen who steps into the role.
The Rays have options and that’s what they do. One player is seldom going to bring the team’s plan down and since trading away Evan Longoria, it’s hard to think of a time when they had any reliance on one player. (Had to look it up. Most WAR since Longoria? Kevin Kiermaier, who led the team three years, largely on defense. Longoria only led the team twice.)
Liam Hendriks RP CWS (kidney stones)
Liam Hendriks has been out for the White Sox for much of the spring, though the team never seemed concerned by this. The story came out Wednesday that Hendriks has been dealing with kidney stones, an intensely painful, but not serious condition. The team has given him time and the best of care to get him through this, but aside from some missed workouts, there’s no long term concern.
Hendriks has done some bullpen sessions, including one Wednesday, and could see game action this weekend. Hendriks is a lock for closer, though I still think Tony La Russa might see some of the pure velocity he has out there - read, Garret Crochet - and think he’s found the greatest thing ever. La Russa always wanted a set closer when he managed previously and it’s tough to tell how he’s evolved over the years.
Closers seem as shaky as they’ve been and I debated Hendrik’s situation with Joel Henard on last week’s podcast with him. I ended up agreeing with him that Hendrik’s is likely as safe a closer as exists, but there’s still a part of me that thinks the Sox will end up with Crochet and Kopech ahead of Hendriks sooner rather than later and then mixing the saves if La Russa gets twitchy. I could be entirely wrong about La Rusa, I admit.
Quick Cuts:
Dinelson Lamet only threw 12 pitches in his inning of work Wednesday, but he lived at 95 and hit 98. I’ll call that pretty good. Next issue is building up and how they’ll do it with only a week left in spring … An x-ray showed no fracture for Cavan Biggio’s sore pinky. Issue now is - what is it? The Jays have a week to figure that out and how to get him back gripping a bat … The Cards will need to shut Harrison Bader down about a month due to his flexor tendonitis. He’s had a PRP injection, in hopes that will help calm things and help it heal. In the meantime, the Cards will likely shift Dylan Carson to center … Spencer Turnbull is away from the team due to COVID protocols. The team hasn’t announced whether Turnbull has COVID or symptoms, but if he’s able to keep his arm going, he should be back quickly. With both Julio Teheran and Tarik Skubal in the opening day rotation, the Tigers have a week or so to figure out what to do once Turnbull is back … Tejay Antone looks headed to the pen despite the Reds rotation issues. His hip flexor is almost fully healed and without a need to build up, he should be ready for Opening Day … Steven Brault is being shut down with a lat strain. The Pirates say he’ll be on full shut down for a month, which means we might not see him back before June. I am impressed with the album he put out last year - he’s a heck of a singer … A longtime subscriber wants a feature where they don’t have to see bad news for their team. Look away, Rangers fans: Khris Davis will miss a month with a Grade II quad strain …
Friday, we’ll have a piece finishing out David Barshop’s series looking back at the quirks of the 2020 season by looking at something coming to ‘21 and beyond - the three batter rule. I’ve really enjoyed David’s pieces and hope you have to. He’s going places.
Remember, Under The Knife is free until Opening Day. Share with friends, especially once your draft is done. I’m trying to grow UTK by a factor of 3 to keep it sustainable beyond this season!
This weekend’s UIndy series was postponed in St Louis, but we’re headed to Detroit to take on Wayne State instead. Get this, they play at the Harwell Baseball Field. How cool is that? That’s baseball in ‘21. If you’re in the area, stop by Saturday.