Under The Knife 3/24/25

The Robots Are Coming

I don’t normally lead with the video, but this isn’t just any video. This was one of the presentations a couple weeks ago at Sloan and it blew my mind. Go ahead, watch it, and I’ll wait for you to catch up. For two weeks, I’ve been thinking about this one and I’ve watched two more times since Sloan graciously released the video.

It’s funny. This is #3 on my list of things that have absolutely altered how I think about baseball and two of them have come in the last month. This, Lewie Pollis’ piece, and Voros McCracken’s original DIPS, and I just got to see a very healthy McCracken at SABR, which is always a treat. I actually got a picture with McCracken and Keith Woolner, which I will cherish. I actually got several pictures with people, and pictures at Sloan, which is something I don’t normally do. Maybe I’m getting sappy in my age.

I don’t know anything about Declan Kneita beyond what I can find on the web, but … yeah, that kid probably has a job lined up after he completes his senior year here in a few months, making that OpenAI/Databricks kind of money, but there’s a baseball team somewhere that is going to try and pick his brain first. (I’m only going to mention “StatChat” and let you figure it out.)

We’ve had tools like this - SQNZR comes to mind - but this one learns, adjusts, and if you’ve been following AI tech, it’s gone from toddler level to PhD level in about a year. If you think it can’t do your job soon, you’re wrong. Worse, I’m not sure we’re terribly far from SkyNet.

But to keep this to baseball rather than dystopia, you can see the easy ways this could be use. The smart guys over at Trajekt can plug this in and confuse batters in an ideal manner. Bettors will be running these on their Nvidia stacks to try to break props. And a team or even a batter can use this to get better quickly. The question is how quickly a team, a coach, and a player can integrate this, especially without real-time info legally allowed in dugout.

There’s more of this kind of thing coming and at some point, we’ll have another “Team Buys a Cray” headline with an Nvidia DGX, another white t-shirt guy moment, and more. For once, Baseball needs to get ahead of the moment. Until then, let’s get to the injuries:

SHANE MCCLANAHAN, SP TBR (inflamed triceps)

Shane McClanahan is just back from Tommy John surgery and as much pain as he appeared to be in on Saturday made it seem like he may not make it to a real game for a while. He’d looked great this spring, to the point of being named the Opening Day starter, but that’s out now. But there is some bright light here, with Kevin Cash telling the media that it’s a nerve problem in the triceps, a kind of flash impingement that should be short term.

I’m not sure this is the best case scenario, but not every arm injury is devastating and it’s certainly unusual for someone so close to Tommy John surgery to need a revision quickly absent an equipment failure. Yes, screws break. While this isn’t good per se, it’s easy to say that it’s close to the best of the bad options and that’s something for the Rays. The question now is what caused the nerve issue and if it needs maintenance or treatment. The worst case here would be something recurrent or a danger of recurrence.

One interesting possibility here is that the Rays might bring McClanahan back faster than most. They’re no stranger to the opener and if McClanahan could go three, no team or manager seems more inclined to use three rather than waste it. Cash isn’t scared of doing things differently or playing a man down if it gives him an advantage later. We’ll know more on timing soon, but the Rays are as creative an organization as exists.

The Rays had some extra depth at the back of their expected rotation, so that won’t be an issue, aside from the quality difference. Beyond that, they have prospects on the rise like Yoniel Curet and a load of young arms they’ve collected at High-A. How they progress those is part of the Rays’ system and a big part of their success of turning over players or seeing them rehab like they have with McClanahan

SONNY GRAY, SP STL (strained forearm)

I always hate the “hidden injury trick.” Players do often hide injuries from the public, but they often hide them from their teams as well, which is a lot more problematic. Sonny Gray leaked that he’d dealt with flexor tendon issues late last year, had an injection, and that his lower velocity this spring is because he’s behind. The suggestion is that he’ll be fine soon, but … that’s not how this works usually. Endurance is what builds, not velocity. We see off-season work with high velocity more and more and while there’s questions about that, I don’t see a team walking out and saying “You know what guys? Don’t throw as hard. Let’s see what happens.”

Gray’s issue is said to be tendonitis and that should be well clear, so even if he’s behind, it should be slight. At worst, a late season injection should have cost him six weeks, maybe eight, which matches most ramp-downs. If he were throwing by December, he shouldn’t be behind at all, but even a full shutdown until January shouldn’t have been a significant loss of time. There’s information missing here, or maybe there isn’t.

Either way, if Gray’s arm has had no setbacks and is fully healthy as he said, this shouldn’t affect much. The lower velocity should come up steadily as have his innings and even if he’s slightly limited in endurance and workload at the start, the results should be standard. That’s what counts and seems more the issue than being “a bit behind.”

Gray talking about this at this time is usually telling. I’m sure the Cards don’t love it, as Gray is one of their most tradeable assets, if he’s healthy and effective. They need innings right now and they’d likely rather some of their younger pitchers not be needed right away. It’s not like they're saving innings for any of their key prospects; they’ll be throwing in the minors and yes, workload is workload.