Under The Knife 3/24/21

Late Spring Injuries appear like Flowers

Let’s get right to it today:

Fernando Tatis Jr SS SDP (inflamed shoulder)

Exhale.

Fernando Tatis Jr ran off the field with an athletic trainer holding his shoulder. All of San Diego fandom held their breath, but all of the initial exams have been positive, with words like ‘soreness’, ‘stiffness’, and ‘mild inflammation’ the worst that came out of the multiple exams.

Given the way it happened and his reaction, my guess is that he had a mild subluxation or an AC separation. Think Cody Bellinger writ small. The Padres aren’t going to take any risks and will send Tatis for more images and exams, but the word from San Diego is that they don’t anticipate anything but a bit more comfort. Tatis could be back on the field by the end of the week, though there’s some discussion of DHing him for a few days, an option he likely won’t have in season.

Assuming the shoulder issue is transitory, Tatis remains one of the most valuable fantasy assets this season. I’d like to see a normal swing and some show of power as he comes back, but I feel generally comfortable with what I’m hearing from both public reports and sources here. If you’re headed into a draft, I think you’re safe holding his slot.

JT Realmuto C PHI (fractured thumb/general soreness)

Well then.

JT Realmuto came back to spring games on Tuesday and in his first at bat, he announced his presence with authority. It’s safe to say that on at least that swing, and for the rest of the game, Realmuto answered some questions. He hit, he caught, and the word afterwards is that he felt pretty good. I’m curious to see if the Phillies give him a rest day or DH him, or if they’ll test him this early.

Word from the Phillies is that everything is going to plan and that the delay in getting Realmuto to the field was the smart play. If we see a couple more times in the field with no issues, it’s going to be hard to argue. The fracture shouldn’t be an issue, but the ‘general soreness’ might still be if he’s simply not in game shape, which I find difficult to believe.

Realmuto remains the top catcher in the game by a long shot and he’s a need for the Phillies, so they have to be as cautious with him as anyone. My one worry from a fantasy standpoint is that I can’t see him catching 140 games and at 120, smarter for the Phillies, it might cost him some counting stats.

Dinelson Lamet SP SDP (inflamed elbow)

Dinelson Lamet will make his spring debut late in the spring. It’s a positive sign after back field work and sim games, but let’s temper our expectations and see what Lamet does in this game before we get too excited. Lamet hasn’t hit 30 on his count yet, even in sims, so the work is limited. That could mean a very short outing on Wednesday.

If he goes three or four, that will be a mixed signal - is his workload being rushed, or have they just held him back previously? I’m more interested to see if he makes his side work and his next outing, which could come after the Padres leave camp. I couldn’t get a solid word on when that next start/outing will be.

The Padres should be able to deal with a short start from Lamet given the pitching around him and the schedule. The bullpen depth is there, even with the injuries and the impending return of Drew Pomeranz will help as well. Having Lamet available at the start of the season is a win, and wins are going to be something these Padres will see a lot of starting next week.

Zac Gallen SP ARI (fractured forearm)

Ok, folks, this is a weird one. Zac Gallen has a hairline fracture on the outside of his pitching forearm, but he says he only feels it when he’s hitting. A more cynical person might say this is a work for pushing the universal DH, but the Arizona medical staff isn’t going to gin something up like this without a real issue.

The downside is that Gallen, no matter how it happened, can’t pitch with this kind of issue. Worse, this is an unusual injury with an unusual, perhaps unknown mechanism. Some might think that because it didn’t initially hurt when he was pitching that he could get back to it more quickly. Fact is, he’ll have to be healed up to be cleared to pitch at all.

Because it’s a hairline fracture, by definition it’s very small and non-displaced. It should start to heal up quickly and get back to a point where Gallen can throw, even pitch, in the next few weeks. He’s going to miss time, but it’s unclear how much right now. The worry is that the stresses of pitching are acting on his arm or that the batting he needs to do - or is told he should - could be problematic in the future. There’s a lot of unknowns, which will translate forward into risk.

By the way, forget timelines with this. The comps are all comebacks that broke someone’s forearm, not a benign causation like this one.

Kirby Yates RP TOR (sprained elbow)

Kirby Yates is done for the season and the Jays medical staff has some questions to answer. Yates went quickly from a pronator strain to an elbow sprain and Tommy John surgery, which isn’t an unusual pattern. Yates is headed for his second Tommy John, with the first coming way back in ‘06 and coming over from the Padres, the Jays passed him on his entrance physical.

It’s easy to say that all this could have happened since the signing, but there were warning signs. Yates was coming off minor surgery to remove bone chips, but the stresses on his elbow are something they could have known with a simple biomechanical check, something the Jays have done in the past, given their solid medical and analytic staff.

Yates signed a one year deal and the Jays will see no return from that. Will they try to re-sign him on some kind of modified Lieber deal to get a return? At 35, that’s an interesting question on both sides. For now, the closer job goes from a Yates lock to last year’s closer Rafael Dolis, or Jordan Romano, who has been lights out in Yates’ absence this spring. We’ll see who gets those early Dunedin saves.

Julio Teheran SP DET (back spasms)

It doesn’t seem that long ago that Julio Teheran was mentioned with the up and coming pitchers that could be aces in the near future. Now, he’s a couple teams past that start with the Braves and could re-establish himself with a rebuilding Tigers team that has a lot of talent, but not a lot of experience.

So seeing him leave his last start in Arizona with back spasms certainly isn’t good, but most reports have it as minor and my best Tigers source tells me that Teheran was removed solely as a precaution and that he’ll make all his side work, plus his next start on time. Assuming all that happens, we’ll chalk this up as one of those spring things.

I think Teheran is a big bounce-back candidate. The Angels were simply a bad team and a bad fit last year for him and the Tigers look to be better all around. With Spencer Turnbull out for now and Casey Mize struggling a bit, Teheran looks to be getting a shot in the rotation and I think he could hold it. The Tigers are surprisingly deep, if not super talented at the top. Mize is the only top-level talent, but a bunch of 3s and 4s can play. Call Teheran one of my favorite lottery tickets.

Albert Pujols DH LAA (bruised wrist)

People forget that Albert Pujols started off his career with a lot of injuries. A severe elbow sprain. Plantar fasciitis. Muscular strains. Despite these, he was one of the most productive players ever. At the end of his career, he’s not great, but he’s been surprisingly durable, in part because of the shift to DH. It’s a really odd career path, but he’s about 130 games from 3,000 in his career, which only eight men have ever done. It’s a surefire Hall of Fame career, even if he’ll end short of 700 homers (needs 38) and will fall shy of just Henry Aaron and Babe Ruth for most career RBI (197 behind Aaron.) That’s high praise.

Pujols got hit on the wrist but came away with just a bruise despite being in obvious pain at the time. It’s easy to imagine that Pujols could have missed much of the season with a broken wrist, which reminds us just how close these players are to missing these kind of historic numbers by a matter of inches. I still believe there’s a huge opportunity for hand and wrist protection to be improved upon, and that MLB and the MLBPA have done a huge disservice to the game at all levels by not encouraging this kind of innovation with some kind of X Prize.

Quick Cuts:

Robbie Ray injured his elbow, but not on the mound. He fell down some stairs. He should be ok once the bruising and inflammation subsides … Miles Mikolas blames his shoulder woes on doing too much too soon. Does that mean his workload wasn’t high enough at the start of camp, or that he didn’t follow the guidelines the team gave him? … The Cards have KK Kim’s back tightness dealt with, and think they can get him ready as a starter for Opening Day … Tough couple days for Khris Davis. He gets hit in the shoulder, though initially it looked like his head. Tuesday, he strained his quad, so Opening Day is in doubt … Starlin Castro left the Nats’ Tuesday game with what he says was a hamstring cramp, not a strain. We’ll have to watch when he gets back out there … Justin Wilson is heading for an MRI on his shoulder. Even with good news, the Yankees are likely down one in the pen at the start. They’re deep, but replacing Zack Britton and Wilson with the next guy up is tough, even with Yankees talent … Kyle Freeland has been shut down with a shoulder strain. Depending on the severity, this could be a while, leaving the Rockies even shorter in their rotation … Late word that Harrison Bader will start the season on IL with some sort of forearm issue. Hope to have more tomorrow … Okay, Trevor.

We’ll have a Thursday edition of Under The Knife, then a UTK Special on Friday. I’ll be on the road this weekend with UIndy in St Louis, if you’re in the area. Things go back to normal next week as we lead up to Opening Day!