Under The Knife 3/20/24
Opening Morning 2024
Blake Snell finally signed, going to the Giants on a 2/62 deal with the now-standard, late-signing opt-out. It’s not a bad deal for either, an insurance policy on injury and a pillow deal for what many hope is a better market next year. I’m less sure, as I’m not sure the TV deals won’t still be a problem, just for different teams but still holding the overall market down. There may not be a Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto to soak up a third of the market, but Roki Sasaki is looming and Juan Soto is likely to get a very large, if not Ohtani-esque, deal himself in another top-loaded market.
A friend asked about giving up the draft picks to sign Snell. Let’s assume, without factoring in team or stadium, that Snell is roughly the same pitcher or a bit worse. Some regression after a Cy season is reasonable. He’ll have a familiar manager, but one that didn’t seem to understand Snell’s unique skills and issues. Sure, it led to a Cy, but there’s clear ways that proper usage could make Snell even better right there on the surface. Let’s assume Snell won’t be a six win pitcher again, but better than the 2 win pitcher he was in 2022. Split the difference and a 4 win pitcher at $31m is value on the going rate of a win (about $9m.)
The picks? Well, how do you feel about Walker Martin? That was the Giants second round pick last year and the response of most would be “who?” Martin was a two-sport star with ridiculous high school numbers and a bit of a surprise as he slid to the Giants in the second. They signed him over-slot in a pre-done deal that explains some of the slide, a tactic they’ve used well with others, such as Kyle Harrison.
Martin’s an impressive prospect, ranked the fifth best Giant prospect by MLB Pipeline. He was in the Complex last year and is expected up by 2027. Blake Snell’s not going to be there when Martin does, if he ever gets there. The Giants past second round picks haven’t been great, though ‘22 pick Carson Whisenhunt is ranked third, but past names like Logan Wyatt and Hunter Bishop never panned out. Even someone like Sean Hjelle, who made it to the majors, but has been a negative WAR player.
I have no idea if Martin will be good. He certainly has the tools and a path to the majors. Maybe he’s the next Brandon Crawford, but even then, Crawford only put up three seasons where he was a 5+ win player, while Snell has done it twice, including last season’s Cy year. Giving up possibilities for near-certainties is usually a good baseball move.
The Giants have been a bit sneaky with signings, getting Matt Chapman with the same one-year opt-out and now have a potential 2024 playoff rotation of Snell, Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray, and Jordan Hicks. I don’t expect Hicks to be there, but the Giants might shift him back to the pen if his arm is still attached in October. That might not match the Dodgers in the regular season, but in a short series? Just maybe and for far less.
That’s why we play the games and they’re starting today so let’s get to the injuries:
SHOHEI OHTANI, DH LAD (sprained elbow/rehab)
Dave Roberts admitted part of what you already knew if you’ve been reading UTK this off-season. Roberts said that Ohtani is about to begin a throwing program and could play in the field this season, but that pitching was still out. The last part is true, for now, but let’s clarify throwing program. Ohtani’s been throwing as part of the medical rehab for his elbow surgery, but he’s shifting to the return to play part of the program. It’s less medical and more sport specific. Ohtani’s getting there slightly ahead of a standard six months, but the crossover on what he can actually do is pretty high.
Assuming that Ohtani is using a relatively standard rehab protocol despite the augmented revision he had - we still don’t know specifics - he’s about a month ahead. His throwing inside the medical portion is equivalent to where a normal TJ rehab would be at the nine month mark, I’m told, so he could skip ahead quickly, if the Dodgers and Ohtani’s team allow it.
Ohtani being available to play the field is intriguing, but doesn’t make that much difference to the team as constructed. Chris Taylor is the utility guy right now and the defensive difference between Ohtani and Taylor in right is negligible; Taylor has better range, Ohtani a better arm when healthy. Opening up the DH slot might help a bit in terms of “half-rest”, but that’s more myth than reality.
Instead, I believe this is a credible step towards Ohtani being available in relief for the playoffs. Ohtani’s influence over his usage was notable in Anaheim and there’s little reason to believe he won’t do the same having moved north. If he decides he wants to be a high leverage reliever, going mano-a-mano against the equivalent of Mike Trout in the WBC, who’s going to say no? Ohtani’s “not pitching this year” will hold, until he does.
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