Under The Knife 3/19/21
Developers, Developers, Developers
Pitching development is an interesting area. Things like velocity increases, pitch design, and even the simple conditioning of pitchers has changed drastically in the last decade. Some of the results are easy to see while others aren’t. I want to look more closely at one specific area, which is getting pitchers from the draft to the major leagues. Brian Cashman once said that the job of the development staff was to give him one new player or pitcher per year. That may seem low, but look back at your own team or a random one and you’ll see that’s a pretty good goal.
For pitching, it’s even tougher. Some will flame out, or not develop that secondary pitch. Many will be sidelined by surgery or lose enough that they’re sent home, the talent never making it to MLB levels. It’s a pure shotgun approach, though several teams have made significant investments in the area.
Two teams that have gotten the most notice for this are the Twins and the Reds. The Reds brought in Kyle Boddy and his Driveline crew, with the immediate return of a Cy Young. I would argue, while credit is due, that Bauer’s performance was baked in. It’s what Boddy does with the arms like Hunter Greene, Christian Roa, and Bryce Bonnin. We won’t know on that for a while, with none expected to start very high, let alone make the major league roster.
The Twins are quieter, but Josh Kalk and his group have been getting results. They bring in some imports that they think can be helped by their system and tend to do so on the relative cheap, with arms like Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda, who have had health issues in the past. Then they have their homegrown contingent like Jose Berrios (2012 draft class), Randy Dobnak (2017 out of Division II), closer Taylor Rodgers (also 2012), and Jordan Balazovic (2016 and on the edge of this year’s rotation.) Add in guys like draftee Matt Canterino (2019), Cole Sands (2018), and Jhoan Duran, who came over to Single-A in a trade and you can see how this team takes arms from all over and funnels them to the majors in high numbers.
We think of Cincy, Minnesota, and the refurbishment factory in Tampa when we think of pitching improvements, but let me give you one more that will surprise: San Francisco. Last year, two pitchers there were in the top ten of velocity gains - Drew Smyly, who was an absolute steal for the Braves after getting healthy, gaining spin, and putting on a couple mph, plus Kevin Gausman, who’s always had potential. I’ll be watching Andrew DeSclafani closely - he’s always been high potential but will shifting from Cincy to San Fran help him? Most would say no, but I’ve liked DeSclafani a long time. I saw him while in high school, better than the kid who pitched in the first game, Rick Porcello.
Success in this is defined over time and you could do the same kind of breakdown for every team and see wildly varying results, though after a look at the data, there’s a very tight range here which bears more research. As more and more data and tools come out, teams that can integrate and adjust will have an advantage. It remains to be seen which approach will work, let alone stand out, but as some teams seem to be losing an edge — looking at you, Houston — others are building and there’s room for teams to really grow on this front, making their team better for about the total cost of a tenth round bonus.
On to the injuries:
Carlos Carrasco SP NYM (strained hamstring)
A strain is a tear. Do I need to make the T-shirts again? Mets fans freaked out at the word “tear.” If it makes them feel better, tell them that Carlos Carrasco has a Grade II hamstring strain. Of course, that means he has significant tearing in one of his hamstring muscles, but if it makes them feel better …
That strain is problematic in that Carrasco will miss at least the first few weeks of the season and more like a month or more as he builds back up. On the plus side, he won’t have to hurry to build up, as it seems like he may have been doing since returning from some arm pain. It’s hard to say there’s any good in this, but hamstring strains heal relatively well and the Mets could well get Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard back very close together, which is an obvious rotation boost.
In the meantime, they “make do” with a 1-2 of Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman, but 3-5 gets a bit shakier. They have plenty of arms and options, but none of them are big steps up. But if the 3 becomes the 5, that suddenly becomes a dominating rotation that the Mets can get behind, if it can only stay healthy.
The Mets have been very good at getting pitchers to the majors, but not so good at keeping them healthy, for the better part of the twenty years I’ve been doing this. I’m writing the same things about Syndergaard and Carrasco as I did about Paul Wilson and Bill Pulsipher, it seems. Mickey Callaway said he was going to bring technology, but he didn’t and the results stayed the same. We’ll see if the new front office and ownership can figure out how to do more than talk a good game on the pitching development front.
Mike Soroka SP ATL (post-Achilles repair)
Mike Soroka could pitch on Opening Day, probably, but the Braves aren’t going to try it anyway. Soroka is not limited by his Achilles repair at this stage, having pitched at full go, fielded, and run, but the Braves simply feel like without the DH, they’re not willing to risk Soroka just yet. I feel like that’s a bit of a cop out, but the Braves have their hands on him so I’ll trust their judgement.
The biggest worry is exactly what injured him in the first place, a simple fielding play where he set his foot and something went wrong inside. He’s no more or less likely to do that again after the repair. If teams want to test him, that means they’re bunting and that has to be a win in ‘21, dead ball or not.
Soroka isn’t far away and essentially, the Braves could have him ready and in the rotation at any point. With no minor leagues to send him to, he’ll stay playing sim games and such to keep his arm ready while the team makes that final call about when they trust his legs. Until then, Bryse Wilson probably has the five slot in what’s going to be a very good Braves rotation.
Framber Valdez SP HOU (fractured finger)
Forest Whitley SP HOU (sprained elbow)
You want the good news or the bad news first, Astros fans? Let’s go with the bad news, which is that Forest Whitley is having Tommy John. This isn’t news, but Whitley’s having a normal procedure, done by Rangers doc Keith Meister in Arlington. The timing is what it is and Whitley should be throwing in time to be ready for next year, but rehab timelines have been extended over the past couple seasons. (I blame the Matt Harvey situation.)
On the other side, Framber Valdez saw Steve Shin, the top hand guy around, in LA and the healing over the last week was good enough that Shin thinks he can make it through the season. There’s going to be a couple more weeks of healing and then we’ll see whether or not Valdez can throw with it, even at a low level. He’ll be stepped up slowly over the six to eight week mark and then build from there once the finger is fully fused. There’s a lot that can go wrong between now and a possible return, but there’s a good chance Valdez misses much less than originally thought.
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (strained calf)
Stephen Strasburg is going to pitch a sim game rather than a spring game and 99 times out of 100, that’s done to preserve a possible retro IL move. In this case, the Nats said that this is being done to manage his workload better. They have a very specific number they want Strasburg to hit and a way they want it done that simply couldn’t be done in a normal game, so a sim it is. This is smart and while I don’t know how they’re designing and managing this workload, I’ll assume they know what they’re doing.
Strasburg has had no issues with his hand after surgery last season, but the simple calf strain he suffered last week is a problem for him getting ready in the right way for Opening Day. Even with the workload management, it’s going to be close for him to be ready, so that retro move that would cost him less than at least the first ten days is still in play, depending on the schedule, weather, and how the rotation lines up without Strasburg. There’s still the possibility he makes it, but this is giving the Nats a lot of options.
Dominic Smith OF NYM (sore wrist)
Dominic Smith has been DHing for all of camp and on the day that he was going to play left field, he ended up scratched. Word from the Mets is that Smith has been dealing with a sore wrist for most of camp, though no one seems to know how it happened or if he came into camp with it. The worry was that he would dive and aggravate it, but that doesn’t match up with the need for some off days. This feels like something changed.
The Mets, specifically Luis Rojas, make it sound as if this is a nothing injury and maybe they’re right. Smith is a power hitter and defensively limited, so I am worried that an awkward play could cause issues, or one bad swing. If Smith is back on the field this weekend as expected, I’ll be looking for any signs of change to his swing mechanics or his power. Without that, especially this season, the NL DH-types like Smith might find themselves struggling for at-bats more than normal.
Joey Votto 1B CIN (COVID positive)
Joey Votto tested positive for COVID and will be quarantined until he passes the return protocol. So far, Votto has had minimal symptoms, but he will be out for at least a week while he clears the tests. That means he won’t have a long runway up to the start of the season, but Votto seems like the type, even at age-37, that could hit well enough just rolling out of bed.
Votto had been talking about taking a new approach to avoid his typical slow start, so this won’t help with that, and at 4-9 in four games, it’s tough to read anything into his limited spring performances. The Reds offense isn’t just Votto, but losing him or losing production from him isn’t going to help a team that seems oddly constructed and didn’t fill many holes in an off-season where the team itself let a lot of people go. We’ll see how it all comes together soon.
Quick Cuts:
Dinelson Lamet threw two innings in a sim game, but it didn’t go well. He’ll need to get his command back as well as build up, which puts the first few weeks of the season in jeopardy … Kole Calhoun had his knee scoped on March 3 and he’s on the back fields doing some baseball activities like shagging flies and playing catch. He could be ready for games by mid-April … Jacob Nix is the latest Padre to head out for Tommy John. For an organization doing a lot of the right things, this is one particular area where it seems like they are not. On the plus side, Drew Pomeranz is throwing again after better than a week off after forearm tightness … Felix Hernandez came out of Baltimore’s game on Tuesday with a sore elbow, but its not serious enough to send him for imaging. (My guess? The Orioles have their own ultrasound.) The former King is iffy for Opening Day and for the rotation in general … Thomas Hatch was on the edge for the Jays rotation and definitely has a future there, but his immediate future involves an MRI on his elbow. Everything is hanging in the balance of those images … Roenis Elias is done for ‘21. He’ll need Tommy John surgery. Feels like a normal in-range season for total Tommy Johns, though I haven’t got a complete count. I’ll be looking into that at the end of spring training … Justin Verlander began throwing in earnest, finishing the medical portion of his Tommy John rehab on schedule. While I continue to think he may not pitch for the Astros, or anyone, after his recovery, he is putting himself in position to come back if he so chooses. I am curious where he’s doing the rehab, so if anyone knows or recognizes the facility, let me know.
I’m not one to get political in *this* space, but yes, I’m watching what Substack is doing. This has been a nice platform - easy to use, does what it’s supposed to, no technical issues for me to deal with - so I have no intention of shifting now. I’m always open to something better for the readers, and for me, especially if the platform becomes something like Facebook where their actions start getting problematic. Craig Calcaterra had a great take about it yesterday at his Substack.