Under The Knife 3/17/21

100 to Zero

The 100 mph barrier is a real thing in baseball. Aside from Aroldis Chapman, no one who regularly throws 100 mph has stayed healthy in baseball, with the vast majority needing elbow reconstruction. We know why this is — the higher the velocity, the higher the stress. Velocity is the number one predictor of future Tommy John chances.*

So when I saw that Jacob deGrom had gone 98, 99, 100, then a 93 mph slider for a batter I was both amazed and a little bit worried. I don’t think predicting injuries is possible, but risk can be** so with deGrom, hitting that 100 mark is both a milestone and a warning sign. I’m not sure there’s a real difference between 99 and 100, or even 98 and 100, but I’d love if someone dug into the data or better, did some substantive research inside MLB’s own data to see if we can figure out the why of this seeming upper limit.

These velocities, plus the increasing velocity on secondary pitches - 93 mph slider?! - means we’re seeing more and more of these effects. Go look at prospect lists and you’ll see 95+ regularly. There have always been the kids that pop up throwing 98 since probably before Bob Feller, but now we’re seeing kids from Vanderbilt down to Division III Adrian (MI) with kids throwing 97 and up. High schoolers the same. We know the effect, but we don’t know the cause underlying the velocity increases.

And yes, there’s not just more coming in terms of velocity, but more and more pitchers in that upper echelon. If we don’t help these pitchers, we’re going to need more surgeons.

*Want to get weird? Second best is weight. I have no idea why that is or even why that might be. It certainly doesn’t explain Chris Sale. Also, to be clear, velocity and stress is not linear and is not single pitch.

**I’ve done risk analysis for years, so this may seem hypocritical. First, I’ve learned since I started doing those. Second, they were always about applying risk analysis to a subjective analysis. A seems riskier than B and they’re both in the same cohort is compelling content and proved to be fairly accurate, but saying “X is going to get hurt this year” is both cynical and arrogant.

So let’s get to it:

Luis Robert OF CWS (strained abdominal)

The latest Cuban sensation, expectations for Luis Robert have gone from hot prospect everyone mispronounced to maybe the next Chicago superstar. He’s got that much talent and signed long term at 23, he feels like the kind of player that could be the one you build around. He hit a wall last year and had a miserable September, making some think he was figured out or hurt, but at least on the latter, there’s no evidence for that. He’ll have to adjust if the league figured something out, but that’s every player. His spring has been solid, showing power and speed.

Robert’s spring is on pause with a mild abdominal strain. There was some concern that Robert was putting on muscle in hopes of a bit more power or at least a bit more stamina, so this is going to raise those worries. So far, the mild nature of this doesn’t put Opening Day in any worry, but we’ll have to watch to see how much time Robert misses and if these small strains become a pattern. I’m high on him, short and long term.

Cody Bellinger OF LAD (torn labrum)

Cody Bellinger made his spring debut on Tuesday. It was an o-fer (0-3) and he showed off a new batting stance, which got more attention that the o-fer. I can’t comment on the stance and it’s effect on him, but by playing and removing the retro IL move, the Dodgers are telling you that they think his shoulder is no longer a problem and won’t be going forward.

Issues like this in the past have been an issue, so if Bellinger is different, it’s because the surgery is different. The knots used to anchor the labrum are tied and set differently and have been for about five years. This is a Neal ElAttrache developed change, so the source is right there with the Dodgers, a true advantage.

Sometimes, things change and if I was a bit too down on Bellinger’s shoulder (and occasionally forgetting it was not his throwing shoulder) it’s because the comps I was using are no longer good comps due to medical science. We’ll see whether the stance helps, but I’m waiting to see some power or at least some barrels.

Nate Pearson SP JAY (strained groin)

There might be no player that more closely watches their workload that Nate Pearson. Pearson has been working with Kinetic Pro for several years now and the results are clear. The downside is that for all the work on the arm, something like a minor groin strain can set it all back and there’s no sensor for groins. (Fill in your own joke here.)

Pearson aggravated a previous groin strain in a bullpen session, so the medical staff will restart the process. The downside here is that means he’s not likely to be ready for Opening Day and the down time will affect where his chronic workload is. My guess is he’ll be able to build up more quickly than most, because he’ll be coming down from a higher point of his chronic workload, built up in the offseason.

The Jays will probably go with Ross Stripling, but Thomas Hatch is in the mix. Pearson has a much higher upside than either, but the Jays can wait a bit to get Pearson back if it means he’s healthy. The hope is that a near-full season from Pearson means the Jays would have the chance to have a real ace at the top, ahead of a staff of 2s and 3s. Don’t take that as insult to Robbie Ray or Hyun Jin Ryu, because Pearson has the acknowledged stuff and upside. He just hasn’t put it together. Yet.

Robinson Chirinos C NYY (fractured wrist)

Robinson Chirinos will have surgery this week and the Yankees say that he’ll miss four to six weeks. What they’re not saying is which bone is fractured or what the procedure is, but given the timing and what we do know, it’s reasonable to think that Chirinos is having part or all of his hamate bone removed. This is a common injury with a very predictable recovery, so the four to six is pretty solid.

There is a bit of complication for a catcher, who gets “nicks and dings”, which really means hit by a baseball in unpredictable ways all over their body while taxing their knees and hips. There’s still very little reason or data to suggest that Chirinos will take anything longer than the long end of that window, absent a major setback like infection.

We see players going all the way back to Ken Griffey Jr having this surgery, coming back, and seeing a marked decrease in power for about a month. Then something happens and the player is back to normal. No doctor or research I’ve found has any explanation for this, but it’s a fairly consistent pattern.

This puts Chirinos back roughly at the start of May, assuming he’ll need some at-bats somewhere to gear back up. Even with Kyle Higishioka coming up sore (see below), the Yankees should be fine for a month with Gary Sanchez, especially with the way he’s been hitting in spring.

Luis Severino SP NYY (post-TJ rehab)

It always kind of surprises me that in 2021, this sentence exists: “Luis Severino was limited to fastballs in his first mound session.” We know that fastballs put the most stress on the elbow and while throwing 18 sliders doesn’t make any sense, I think the issue is that the general baseball public (and media) don’t have the right vocabulary to talk about this situation.

Severino didn’t get on the mound and let it fly. He got on the mound in a very controlled setting with both coaches and cameras keeping a very close eye on him. he had specific instructions for how hard to throw - 75 percent, I’m told - and a radar gun to help him.

Maybe some kind of term like “monitored pen” would work, but the effort that goes into making Severino’s rehab successful deserves more than a throwaway line. And for what it’s worth, that bullpen session was considered a success.

Felix Pena RP LAA (strained hamstring)

Felix Pena was finally something last year, rather than sort of this, sort of that. He was a reliever and by the end of 2020, was looking like he might be the answer at the back of the pen for the Angels. The trade for Raisel Iglesias showed that the new front office didn’t agree, so Pena was expected to be more the swingman again. For now, he’ll be sidelined after a hamstring strain looks to be more significant than first thought. Pena was sent for an MRI on Tuesday and we’ll see how long he’ll miss, but Opening Day is out.

Iglesias will be the save guy, but there’s a big gap in the pen. The Angels have a bunch of guys who won’t make the rotation and could end up in the pen or the alt-site, while the pen is filled with the kind of “who is this guy throwing heat?” that happens these days, like Luke Bard and Mike Mayers. Without Pena, Joe Madden is going to have to piece things together with a lot of guys that haven’t locked down a roster spot, let alone a role. Can Shohei Ohtani close?

Christian Yelich OF MIL (strained back)

Christian Yelich is dealing with what the Brewers call a “mild” back strain. The soreness is a result of what was called an “extended batting session.” An extra off-day in the spring is nothing really to worry about, given no history, but every ding is going to look bigger given Yelich’s big fall off last year, even with there being no evidence it was injury related.

Yelich was one of those who says he was affected by the loss of in-game video. That’s back, but modified, so we can’t say it all comes back, nor can we yet say it really was the cause. If Yelich, JD Martinez, and several others have bounce-back seasons, maybe, but there’s so many factors that even that would be hard to say was the only cause.

Yelich has hit well in the spring, showing power and bat control, so there’s some positive signs. How quickly things like his K-rate and exit velocity return to normal (and they may have already, though we don’t get as much of that info in the spring) will determine how quickly Yelich gets back … or doesn’t.

Quick Cuts:

Hunter Harvey will miss the start of the season after straining his oblique. That leaves the saves a mystery for the O’s, who might end up with something of a committee at the back end of the pen … The Royals scratched Andrew Benintendi due to some back soreness. It’s considered minor and he should miss little time … Ketel Marte rolled his ankle running the bases Tuesday. It’s not considered major, but they pulled him from the game as a precaution. I’d expect him back soon … “Radiofrequency denervation” sounds better than “burning away the nerve”, but both are accurate. That’s what Alex Wood is having to relieve back pain and yes, it’s serious. He’ll miss at least a couple weeks, putting him on the outside for a rotation spot … Ramon Laureano was held out as he also deals with a mild oblique strain. Treatment and rest for a couple days, but no major concern here … Both Brendan McKay and Brent Honeywell were sent to the minors, but it’s a paper move. Both are still rehabbing and will stay in the complex to complete it. Both are likely to start at the alt or in Durham, but both should push into the rotation, which gives backup to guys like Michael Wacha and Chris Archer … With Chirinos out, the Yankees are being a bit careful with Kyle Higishioka. He had some soreness and to keep what’s likely a very mild oblique strain from getting worse, they’ll rest him a couple days … Joe Sheehan made a solid case against Bobby Witt Jr making the Royals roster, but keep in mind that Patrick Mahomes does own a non-zero percentage of the Royals. Will player ownership, albeit a different sport and an athlete that’s never had contract issues, push things towards the player more? With LeBron James getting partner status and a fraction of the Red Sox, we could see more of this. However, the one MLB player we’ve seen showed pretty hard ownership-leaning tendencies as he tried to become an owner - Alex Rodriguez, who lacks the money to actually buy a team. (Yes, Nolan Ryan did own part of the Rangers and if we go further back, there were plenty of player owners. I tried to figure out the last former player to hold a significant share of a team and it’s been a while.)

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