Under The Knife 3/15/21

Whoa, We're Half Way There ...

There’s fifteen days until Opening Day as you read this, so we’re halfway there, I guess. Everyone else just get the song in your head? While spring training hasn’t been normal, the injuries have been. We’re in range on almost everything trackable and it appears — appears — that this is more of the normal pattern than last year, when things got completely thrown off when the world changed about this time.

With things opening up, it may feel more normal, but that could change how players work out, prepare, and other ways, especially in the minor leagues where the data is tougher to delineate. My advice is to keep your risk a bit lower than normal, because risk in general is a bit higher in terms of so many unknowns.

Mike Fiers SP OAK (inflamed hip/back)

Mike Fiers’ “minor back issue” has kept him out for the entire spring. Now, he’s had some sort of setback and reports have it as a hip issue. Its not clear if this is new or whether it’s always been in that area (that’s my guess) and that they’re figuring out the back issue is secondary to the hip injury. He went for an MRI on Sunday but results weren’t known at publish time.

Fiers wasn’t throwing hard when he had the setback. Multiple reports have him playing catch, which is usually just that, a light tossing session to get the arm moving, which shouldn’t put much strain on either the back or hip, so it was a normal, low-effort movement that set this off. That’s not a good sign.

We’ll have to wait for the MRI for more specifics, but I’m expecting this to be significant, which will push AJ Puk back to the rotation at some point, though he’s been in the pen all spring and hasn’t been prepping as a starter. Cole Irvin and hot rookie Daulton Jefferies could get an early shot at the rotation as well.

Sonny Gray SP CIN (back spasms)

Back spasms are painful but can be transient, especially if the medical staff can get at the root cause. For a pitcher that can be a lot of things and they’ll often relieve the symptoms without even knowing the root cause. With Sonny Gray, combining the back spasms, the timing, and the fact that he’s not close to game ready, the idea that he’ll just miss a couple starts - “the first week of the season” as the Reds put it - is a bit off to me. Not impossible, but it’s more probable that this extends or recurs.

Gray hasn’t thrown more than three innings in a game, so there’s just no time to build up by Opening Day and even beyond that gets a bit tight. Six to ten weeks is generally the ‘safe’ timeframe to build up a starter’s workload and that’s obviously out. The Reds should be able to be creative - five innings of Gray is better than nothing and they should be able to tandem him or back him up with the pen if he’s solid enough to do that with.

There is high risk of recurrence here, but players tend to take these kinds of things very seriously. Some ‘get religion’ on it and head off or at least hold off years of back issues by maintaining it over time with exercises, flexibility, and strengthening. With Tejay Antone dealing with a minor groin strain, the 1 through 5 for the Reds is completely up in the air behind Luis Castillo now. If the Reds are really sending Hunter Greene to Single-A Dayton, they must think they have enough to get through.

Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (strained calf)

Stephen Strasburg has had no problems coming back with his arm after a lost ‘20 campaign due to carpal tunnel and then surgery to correct it. What’s been problematic is his legs, which is unusual for him. Let’s call it a bit of a fluke, a bit of bad luck, but that this is the time where minor things like this can be dealt with.

Strasburg had what the Nats and several sources say was a normal offseason. He was throwing on his own before the end of last season, but the Nats were smart to not push that comeback. It gave him confidence in his arm again and he’s shown good work in what we’ve been able to see. Again, the sources concur and say that he’s been great in his drills and side work. While this certainly isn’t where you want any top pitcher to start, he’s still on track for Opening Day. Strasburg doesn’t tend to work into deep pitch counts anyway, so limiting him some won’t be a big change.

Brendan Rodgers 2B COL (strained hamstring)

Brendan Rodgers could end up with a Phil Nevin career — a first round “bust” that ends up a useful player over the course of his career. Of course, he’ll have to stay healthy to do it, which has been one of his major issues. Rodgers’ latest issue is a hamstring strain, done on a steal attempt and thought to be “minor to medium” according to a source that saw Rodgers’ being treated after the injury.

If this strain is approaching a Grade II strain, Rodgers is likely to hit the IL, but could miss only a few days of the season on the upside given the timing. If it takes a bit longer, the Rox have several options at second, so there will be no need to really rush this.

Rodgers hasn’t been a plus baserunner at any level and has no major league steals, so if he’s running less, he’s not hurting the team much if at all. This looks like something that is more problematic in missed time than in the other ways injuries can derail a season and even that might be minor for Rodgers and the Rockies.

Ji-Man Choi 1B TB (knee inflammation)

The Rays are being pretty vague about what’s going on with Ji-Man Choi. We know it’s been bothering him a while. We know they’re shutting him down for a week minimum. We know that surgery isn’t an immediate option. That seems a lot like patellar tendonitis, but there’s some other possibilities. Choi will need to get back to playing pretty quickly after the shutdown if he wants to make the Opening Day roster, but that may already be ruled out behind the scenes.

The Rays would of course rather have Choi healthy, but they tend to be conservative and smart about things where missing a week means having a player healthy in the longer term. Yandy Diaz and Mike Brosseau are the RH part of the platoon, so it’s Yoshi Ttutsugo would could get some early playing time if Choi is out. The Rays mix and match with the best of them, so it could be almost anything to adjust. This is a roster designed for just this sort of issue.

Austin Nola C SD (fractured finger)

Like JT Realmuto, Austin Nola has broken something on his glove hand. That’s a bit better than the throwing hand, but not much. Nola has to catch a hard-throwing staff and isn’t the smoothest glove guy to begin with, though given he’s a late conversion he’s really not bad.

Nola’s time out will depend on a couple factors. The injury is to his middle finger so in theory, it could be ‘buddy taped’ to another finger for support inside the glove, but that would have to come off for an at-bat. He’ll need some sort of cushion or shock isolation — is there a G Shock glove? — to help. At bat, he’ll have to be able to grip the bat with both hands and take the shock of a hit as well.

Catchers are odd ducks so he could come back at or near the minimum, but missing the first couple weeks of the season seems more likely with this injury. That will mean Luis Campusano will get more action at catcher, with Victor Caratini as well, though his function as You Darvish’s caddie seems to limit his work with others. Neither is a great fantasy option.

Jordan Hicks RP STL (post-TJ rehab (2019))

A 22 pitch at bat is not normal and at the kind of velocity and effort, that’s basically it for Jordan Hicks on a throw day. Full credit to Luis Guillorme for doing that with that kind of stuff. In a game (and a spring) where teams can just roll innings, it seems no harm no foul, but look a little deeper and there’s reason to be concerned.

First, you don’t have to be a scout to see there’s less motion on Hicks’ pitches here. He’s not fooling Guillorme, though on a couple occasions he’s barely getting the bat on it. The velocity is fine, but Hicks and many others flatten out as there’s just less time for the air to work on the ball, which is something I’d like to see the modeling and wind tunnel guys work on — is there an upper limit to effective pitches?

Second, Hicks isn’t working his best stuff yet, but while this is one flukish at-bat, the workload could get worrisome. I doubt there will be more like this, but 7, 8, 9 pitch at-bats really wear on a pitcher, even a one-inning reliever. I’m not bailing out on Hicks and I’m sure the Cards aren’t either, but with a struggling staff, having to worry about the closer a bit isn’t helping. If they end up not having the lock-down back end they thought they had, it’s even worse.

Quick Cuts:

Kwang Hyun Kim is the latest Cardinal to go down, a back strain in this case, in the rotation. Aside from Jack Flaherty, they have questions 2-5 if Kim is set back past a short break … Robinson Chirinos is getting a second opinion, but it looks like he’s headed for surgery on his fractured wrist. There’s still no clarity on which bone, which will affect the timeline … Jeter Downs likely has an oblique strain. He wasn’t likely to make the Opening Day roster, but this probably seals it. He has shown enough to make it likely we see him up this year … Brett Honeywell threw all his stuff and threw it into the mid-90s. He’ll open in the minors, but sure looks like he’ll be up for the Rays soon … Roenis Elias is coming back from a flexor strain and now, he’s headed out to doctors to check what’s considered a new major issue. That sounds really bad … Shogo Akiyama has a minor hamstring strain, so he should be ready for Opening Day if no setbacks … Rough week for Danny Santana. He makes it back to the field after Tommy John and picks up a foot infection that requires hospitalization for both a clean out and an antibiotic infusion. He should be back by the end of the week, but will be fatigued … Michael Kopech will get in his first official spring action on Monday. Most will be watching his velocity, but watch to see that he gets in his work after the calf strain … There’s no final update yet on Framber Valdez as he hopes to avoid surgery on his fractured finger that would put a big dent in his season. Not sure what the delay is here, but I’d expect some clarity this week for sure.

Under The Knife will be free until Opening Day as I try to build the subscriber base ahead of the season. If you’re checking out UTK for the first time, welcome! I do this all year long, breaking down the injuries for MLB and the NFL, plus more. I’ve been doing this for twenty years at places like Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and Sports Illustrated, but now I work for you. Five bucks gets you everything, including enhanced access for questions and everything I write directly to your inbox. Please consider subscribing and supporting my work.

Someone asked why I don’t highlight every name in Quick Cuts. If you look above, you’ll see a mention of Jack Flaherty that isn’t in bold. The reason is he’s not hurt. I will only make the injured players stand out, since I know a lot of people scan QC for their team or fantasy team’s players. It’s just a way to make it easier for you.

UIndy split a series with Missourt S&T this weekend. The four-games included Brandon DeWitt pushing his average up to .475 while picking up a save, pitching four innings like Tim Collins , and playing solid center field. We’ll be at home next weekend against Truman State, if you’re in the area.