Under The Knife 3/10/20

Verlander, Scherzer, Conforto, and more

For years, I’ve been talking about — and doing things - in the field of athlete data. This Wall Street Journal article from Jacob Gershman is both a look back and forward at where this may go. (It’s kind of behind a paywall, so YMMV.) The Illinois gambling law is the first to address it, but with NFL and MLB in current negotiations on long term CBAs, and the NBA and NHL recently locking them up, the leagues themselves are behind and potentially locking themselves out. Gambling, I believe, will only slightly trail broadcast. A player at the line for two with a Zephyr on, his heart rate showing on the screen, would be compelling content and easy to understand.

Much like Statcast has changed how many of us watch baseball - in fact, I regularly look for that kind of data with my Division II players and am frustrated when I can’t get route graphs or in game exit velocity - this kind of biometric data is going to change the game and more, how we think about the game. Get ready for it. For now, let’s look at the injuries:

Justin Verlander (SP Astros)

Justin Verlander’s injury went from a triceps strain to a lat strain. It’s not as big a difference as you’d think - see below for locations of the two muscles - but it is a big functional difference. It’s a bit unclear how one got confused for the other, but the lat is by far the more common injury and the more problematic for a pitcher.

There have been a number of pitchers who have had this, but Stephen Strasburg is the one that is probably the best comp. That year, Strasburg had a number of muscular injuries that were going down the kinetic chain — trap, lat, lower back. This doesn’t appear to be the same kind of thing with Verlander, but for the first few weeks, there’s a bit of a risk of some kind of setback not only in the lat, but both up and down the kinetic chain.

Verlander will be shut down at least a week and perhaps more as the muscle heals up. The real issue is how much down time he has and how much it takes to build back up. Rushing it is usually the order of the day, leaving Verlander in a bad position in terms of chronic workload. The Astros have the right tools to do this well, but do they have the patience?

Michael Conforto (OF Mets)

I had a discussion with a sports scientist recently where we discussed the concept of “zero injuries.” It’s likely impossible, but he showed me solid evidence that getting very close to it is not only possible, but it’s been done. (More on this soon, I hope.) Across sports, the idea of “prevention” should really be about “reduction.” Even if we can’t get to zero, we can certainly do better.

Michael Conforto should be doing better. Oblique injuries are a part of baseball, but do they have to be? No one is doing more to promote the reduction of these injuries as Sarah Howard, who is @lamobilitycoach on Twitter. She’s a must-follow on that hell-scape of an app with free tips on how to be better, more resilient, and healthier.

One of her favorite tools is the Coregeous ball. I use it with my pitchers, but just go through Sarah’s feed and ask yourself - why is every player not doing this? If I’m Michael Conforto, or any athlete, or a team, I’m asking that and flying her out to help fix this issue. Maybe we won’t get to zero, but it would be nice to not type “oblique strain” so much.

Willie Calhoun (OF Rangers)

Willie Calhoun had plates put in his jaw - yes, multiple - and will miss the start of the season. The question is what can he do while his jaw is healing? If he’s able to keep up his cardio to some level and keep his eye trained and swing tuned, it shouldn’t take that long to get him back. He’ll need some downtime, but there’s little danger to getting in the cage with machines. They don’t miss up and in.

With proper protection, Calhoun’s jaw shouldn’t be at significant risk at the plate. Oddly, it may be in the outfield where he’ll be at most risk. A dive or a run into the wall (or a teammate) isn’t going to be protected by a C-flap. Maybe Calhoun could go out there with some sort of Reverse Olerud or just borrow a helmet from across the street. I doubt that will be the case and with the plates and some healing, Calhoun really isn’t at that much risk.

It’s not going to be quick, but Calhoun could be back more quickly than many expect. With the way the Rangers are set up, having him back could be a lot of value, both to them and to fantasy players. Though we won’t know for sure for at least two weeks, I’d start figuring out how much more Calhoun will be worth if he misses less time than most are calculating.

Byron Buxton (OF Twins)

Byron Buxton is back to live batting practice, a big step as he continues his comeback from labrum surgery. It was his glove shoulder, so his return to the field shouldn’t be complicated. The same can’t be said for hitting, where this type of injury has confounded good hitters like Matt Kemp. No one seems entirely sure why, but the hitting mechanics are altered and that alone could be the answer in the short-term.

Buxton had a new style of labrum surgery, which has taken hold over the last few years. It uses a different style of knots that fixate the labrum back in place which, in essence, are flatter and don’t cause as much irritation inside the joint. There’s not enough of a known sample size to know whether this will make any difference or reduce the return-to-swing time. It’s less the rehab time, which is still similar, and more about getting the swing back to normal that is the unknown.

Buxton is a confounding player, but in the same season where things seemed to come together for him, his durability absolutely abandoned him. He dealt with five separate injuries - wrist, back, knee, concussion, and finally then shoulder - so we have to worry that beyond the shoulder, Buxton carries considerable health risk. Confounding yes, but the talent is tempting as well. I’m trying to avoid this temptation in drafts.

Max Scherzer (SP Nationals)

There’s a difference between pain and soreness. For Max Scherzer, the hope is that the soreness he felt in his side is just that and not something more significant. Scherzer laid off a bullpen session and went with long toss, which can be a little lighter depending on how he did it. (No, all long toss is not the same. Not even close.)

There doesn’t seem to be much worry here. A source I spoke with says Scherzer regularly has issues during spring training as he ramps up. He also said that Scherzer is also very self-conscious about this, which is good. Remember, Scherzer had some muscular issues last season which led to a low in innings, but he was very, very good when he was healthy. Even at 36, I don’t see any reason to think Scherzer is about to take a major step back. The Nationals have great pitching, if healthy.

Someone order Max a Coregous ball while you’re at it.

Quick Cuts:

Yoenis Cespedes is still feeling the effects of that wild boar attack. His ankle still isn’t ready for changes of direction or hard lateral motion. There’s progress, but it doesn’t look like he’ll start the season with the Mets … Dylan Moore got hit on the wrist and was lucky to just have a bone bruise. He’ll miss a couple days. This comes after a concussion and strained calf, so Moore is wondering who has the voodoo doll of him this spring … Bryce Harper fouled one off his toe. He came out of the game, but there’s no serious injury. It just hurts … Dillon Peters rolled his ankle walking down stairs. He had to skip his start but this doesn’t look to affect his season start point … Nick Madrigal took a ball to the face, but not only had no serious injuries, the Sox say he doesn’t have a concussion. He should be back on the field soon.

Questions:

Question from reader Rex Harris: “A lot of guys I referred to your site are interested in the recent Pacers injuries. What is your take on Brogden and his quad tear, how does the Jeremy Lamb injury stack up serious wise with the one for Victor Oladipo?  I see them putting a lot of stuff on Sabonis’ back, what is the latest “cream” used for sore backs?  I was also asked “what is those big dial type things we are seeing on Victor’s knee when on the bench?”

Good questions. I don’t know what the cream or “dials” being used are. There’s just too many possibilities as to what creams could be applied without knowing for sure. The dials I haven’t seen, so if someone has a picture or has seen them let me know.

Lamb’s injury — an ACL tear with a fracture in the femur — is very different that Oladipo’s tendon rupture. The mechanism was clear, was him landing in a twist and pulled back, which leads. As long as the fracture heals cleanly, Lamb should have a normal time coming back from his ACL reconstruction.

Brogdon is also a normal quad strain. He’ll have to heal it up which is simply time, but the Pacers medical staff, largely through experience, is very good with this precise kind of injury. If you think about Paul George, Oladipo, and now these two, it’s hard to “blame” anyone for this kind of injury, but they’ve also had the best possible results.

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