Under The Knife 2/9/23
Team Health Reports 2023
The Team Health Reports are a tradition that goes back to my earliest days. They’ve been pretty much everywhere I’ve been, so it’s only right that I bring them back here. You will find them much as they always have been, but there’s small differences that bear an explanation.
Red, yellow, and green are pretty self-explanatory. (And apologies to the color blind among you.) Red is the riskiest, yellow is notable risk, and green is the lowest risk. They are banded in a range where in theory, it should be 50 percent green, 30 percent yellow, and 20 percent red before adjustments. Those adjustments include injury history, workload, team history, and 11 more. Honestly, you could use those top three and get about 90 percent of it.
In large numbers, these will be right. Red players will be injured better than half the time, but an individual player might have a perfectly healthy and productive season. A green player might make a wrong step and be out for the season before Opening Day. A rating is not destiny and baseball is not Calvinist. (It’s Molinist, if you want to get really theological and no, that has nothing to do with the Catching Molinas!)
You should not simply avoid red players or go for green players. You should use risk as part of the calculation. Some projection systems bake this in somewhat, with playing time projections. The research shows that’s not enough and that there’s between three and five percent more value you can squeeze out if you adjust properly. I think I adjust properly, and better, I allow you to do so. If you’re a subscriber. The link is below the paywall.
(If not, please tell me what it would take to make you a UTK subscriber.)