Under The Knife 2/7/24

The Tommy John Troubles

Every time about this year, one of my favorite baseball execs emails me and asks the same question: “What guys are coming back from Tommy John this year I should worry about?” I’m anticipating the question and sharing the answer for subscribers.

This is a good opportunity to shout out Jon Roegele, doing the work and keeping up his Tommy John list. Nothing is more complete and it makes doing this kind of column so much easier than even my own database and list. Send him some money if you use this, like I do.

Looking at the list and going back two years is the best way to look. Yes, players from two years ago still aren’t back and at that stage, probably aren’t unless there was a known complication. The mid-season 2022 guys should be back and the longer time usually coincides with the calendar. Some could have come back towards the end of the season, but the team chose not to. For Walker Buehler, it didn’t really take an extra six months to recover, but that’s what it will look like on the spreadsheet.

There’s a couple asterisks in here. First, the returns are often not detailed in terms of the type of procedure. I’ve detailed why the increase in the use of InternalBrace is good for ball, but most of the media and teams haven’t caught up. We don’t know in some cases which type of surgery was done, which affects their outlook if not yet their timeline. (Both are too long.)

Here’s the guys who are coming back and how I foresee their 2024 seasons being affected by the surgery and rehab:

Walker Buehler: Buehler had a revision (a second procedure) and was ready to pitch at the end of last season. The Dodgers elected not to use him, but they insist there was no setback. Buehler’s had a relatively normal off-season and is key to the Dodgers hopes this season. Even with all the money they’ve spent, depth isn’t there just yet. If Buehler comes back well and can put up 150 innings, those problems get smaller. I’d expect Buehler to have a similar return pattern as last time, meaning almost no issue aside from inevitable workload management. Buehler’s consensus ADP is 112, which seems a bit low. He’s in line with Justin Verlander, who despite the age difference is a pretty good comp for return. I don’t get why he’s behind players like Cole Ragans and Dylan Cease, so there’s some value to be had.

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