Under The Knife 2/16/24
Manfred's Long Exit
The stunner isn’t that Rob Manfred is stepping down in 2029. That’s still years, and a CBA away. The stunner is that they did so with no clear successor in place, though with five years, Manfred could run an Apprentice-style campaign if he so wished (and if people didn’t feel weird about that show now.) Manfred’s been the Commissioner for 10 years and just signed his extension, but has been at the league since 1987. That’s a long time and for the owners, it has to be seen as a success. Franchise values are up, salaries are relatively controlled, and if he lands the next CBA and media rights package, it’s hard to argue against Manfred as a success, at least in how his bosses would define it.
But sticking that landing is going to be among the toughest things in his career. The RSN meltdown is bad enough, but there’s not much in the way of streaming success either. MLBAM was and remains a success story, with owners wondering only if they sold out too soon. ESPN+ and Disney+ are built on top of it, as are many other services. Where MLB had an early advantage in tech - and they still tend to be early on most things - they’re not leaps and bounds ahead. The NBA has caught up and the MLS and World Soccer have made strides, especially with the Apple 360 deal.
Manfred also confirmed that he wants to at least have the expansion process in place. That will likely come with the next CBA and with media deals. Putting no timeline on it isn’t that bad, as the Oakland move continues to be a mess and there’s an open question about whether it will happen at all. Nashville wants a team, but there’s no place to put one - IndyCar had to move their season-ending race because the Titans new stadium is screwing up construction. Putting it at the site of the old one leaves no parking/tailgating area and finishing the new Titans dome will take years. At the same time, SLC is unveiling what their ballpark is looking like, no mistake in timing.
2029 seems like a long way off, but just as there was some elbowing for position before, when Manfred looked like he might be hitting the exits before the owners hit eject, it will be a different crew and a different generation. Theo Epstein is back in baseball, sort of, but do the owners want a baseball man, or another lawyer? The positioning starts now and I’ll be curious what gets the advantage - helping the negotiations like Manfred, advancing the business and tech, or something else entirely. For now, here in 2024, we’re watching all the camps open, and have injuries to talk about already:
KYLE BRADISH, SP BAL (sprained elbow)
Starting the season with a UCL sprain is never good, but remember that in normal years, we see the majority of elbow injuries early in camp. The thought has been that poor ramping was the cause of this, but when it happens to someone like Kyle Bradish, inside one of the smartest front offices with the best medical staff, we may have to recalculate that.
Bradish’s sprain is very small, though remember, it doesn’t take much to require a reconstruction, nor is the science of imaging as exact as we think. The first reaction is to hit it with PRP and other biologics, then wait and see. That means at best, Bradish is going to miss all of camp and the start of the season.
For those of you saying “just have surgery now!”, I’ll remind you that losing four weeks in a fourteen to eighteen month process - or even a twelve month one - is good odds. There’s a chance, and plenty of examples, that surgery can be avoided and Bradish could be back by May if all goes well. That said, many of these cases do end up with surgery, putting Bradish out for the season and likely the start of next.
Bradish had a big innings increase in 2023, but there were no signs he was overstressed. Given the acute nature of the injury and little other information, it’s impossible to know the exact causes from out here. The Orioles have depth to cover for this, but the Corbin Burnes trade looks even better, though the O’s rotation looks significantly worse without Bradish at the SP2.
Subscribers will learn more about two other Orioles injuries, another Yankees problem, plus where Liam Hendriks might land, plus more. Subscribe today to get all of Under The Knife: