Under The Knife 12/14/23

Winter Problems

It’s unusual to have injuries at this point in the winter, but winter ball injuries do happen. Unfortunately, two clubs have to deal with major injuries that will alter some plans and perhaps force a transaction here or there. Let’s take a quick look at the two and what it might do to the Mets and Pirates, but first, a discussion.

I called two AGMs and asked how an injury at this point in the season would alter their plans. Of course, there was lots of “it depends” with variants on who the player is and how pivotal they are to the team. Both mentioned where their own self-analysis is would affect decisions, and let’s be clear that most teams tend to be more positive than reality or fandom. Teams and executives on bad teams often don’t believe they’re bad teams and will make convincing cases.

Ronny Mauricio, INF NYM (sprained knee)

Yet another Mets prospect, Ronny Mauricio was expected to challenge for the third base job in the spring, fighting Brent Baty and Mark Vientos for time. Instead, he’ll have ACL surgery and miss six to nine months. There’s no word on who’s doing the surgery or when just yet, but most timelines will cost Mauricio most if not all of the season.

Ignore the over-the-top discussion of Mauricio as potential rookie of the year, but the video shows Mauricio doing a a quick stop on a secondary lead, then collapsing to the dirt. It’s a very clear ACL mechanism and just unfortunate. While there are very successful ACL prevention programs and the Mets are very sports science focused, fluke injuries like this will happen.

ACL injuries are rare in MLB but certainly not unknown. The best known recent case is Ronald Acuna, and he came back ok. Some will point to his down start to ‘22 as “he was rushed,” but it’s more accurate to say that Acuna lacked confidence in his knee. Quote after quote from him showed he simply didn’t trust that a similar play wouldn’t happen again, despite the rarity and the solid fix. Once that confidence was restored, he was back to being an historic talent quickly. I’m not predicting MVPs for Mauricio, but he should be able to get back to his own talent level.

That doesn’t help the Mets right now, though the team wasn’t sure Mauricio would win the job outright. Baty and Vientos are both well regarded as well and made it up in parts of last year. The team struggled … or should I say, Buck Showalter struggled … with integrating rookies. While neither will be up to start the season, Luisangel Acuna and Jett Williams are both solidly at Double-A and could push for an infield job during the season, especially with Mauricio out of the way.

Mauricio is a big guy who’s filling in, so the plus power could get more consistent, though he still misses a lot. (ZIPS had him as a 20 HR guy this year.) The knee won’t help him, but he can spend the lost time on pitch recognition, conditioning, and body composition. He could come back stronger and with the base to be better, just a year later than what Mets fans had hoped.

Endy Rodriguez, C PIT (sprained/strained elbow)

Endy Rodriguez didn’t hit like expected in his first MLB action, especially after rocketing through the minors in ‘22. The Pirates liked his defense enough to push former 1-1 Henry Davis to the outfield. He’ll shift back after that experiment failed and more now that Rodriguez’s ‘24 season is done. Rodriguez tore his UCL and flexor tendon on a swing during Dominican Winter League action, an incredibly rare injury mechanism. The UCL is not stressed during a swing, so my assumption is something awkward and unusual happened, though I have not seen video.

We can also assume this was more the final straw on the metaphorical camel, though depending on how awkward that was could make this a catastrophic and acute injury. Rodriguez was expected to be the starting catcher and to make offensive jumps, but that won’t happen here. Instead, Davis likely becomes the starter, with a battle for the backup job. Davis should be able to hit well enough, but there’s questions about his defense (though less than his outfield defense.)

The Pirates may have to go out and get a cheap backup who could take on a bigger role if Davis just isn’t good enough. That’s an unexpected cost on an already limited budget and one unlikely to make the team better. There’s a good list of this type of catcher out there - think Gary Sanchez or even Mike Zunino - who could fit at the right price.

For Rodriguez, it will amount to a lost year, though catchers tend to come back from Tommy John surgery well. It’s not known yet if Rodriguez underwent classic Tommy John or an augmented procedure, or who did it, which could give us more information on the timing, but coming back in ‘24 is unlikely. He should be ready for spring ‘25 at full strength.