Under The Knife 10/26/20
Free Monday? Plus Kershaw, bullpen fatigue, and more
Yes, this is “Free Monday” because I forgot to flip the switch on Friday. Those of you that aren’t subscribers can go back and take a look at Friday’s column on the website if you’d like. I almost sent a second email, but decided I don’t want to take up that much time in your email box. When I send a second email in a day, you’ll know something’s up. But there’s plenty to discuss and thankfully few injuries so let’s get to it:
Clayton Kershaw SP LA (no injury)
Clayton Kershaw made it through Game 5 and while there’s still some debate about the Playoff Monkey’s current location, Kershaw’s done enough that we can start having debates about just where Kershaw belongs in the pantheon. He passed Roger Clemens for some stat or the other and does anyone really care about counting stats in the playoffs, especially this year with extra rounds, games, innings, and everything else?
A few years ago when Kershaw looked to be pushed out of baseball early by a bad back — the same one still acting up a few years later — his stats were basically Sandy Koufax. He got to them very differently, but there they were, two Dodger lefties with resumes that looked near identical despite the game’s changes. Add on a few good years and Kershaw has to be a Hall of Famer, though everyone listening to John Smoltz thinks he needs to add more rings. (I know.)
Kershaw showed no evidence of back issues, which is what he shows most of the time. The medical staff can’t put him back to zero, but he’s certainly functional and available a good portion of the time. Just how fatigued is Kershaw? The inning count certainly doesn’t show it, but I have a feeling that if Game 7 is close at the end, Kershaw is going to be the call over everyone, especially if Jose Urias is used in Game 6.
The Opposite of Fatigue
“The bullpens are tired!” said John Smoltz. I don’t mean to pick on Smoltz, but he just left it out there like a hanging curve for me. First, how does he know? I’d imagine he talks to the players, though with the “playoff bubble”, is Smoltz’s access like everyone else, over Zoom? Does he get extra Zooms or private Zooms or does he just show his Hall of Fame plaque and get whatever he wants? My guess is that even to a fellow pitcher, most pitchers on either side aren’t going to be honest about how tired they are. They might give that knowing look, but no one’s going to say “Smoltzy, I’m gassed. If Roberts warms me up one more time, my arm will fall off.”
We could jump through some mathematical hoops and get a good estimation for just how tired they are, but those ignore what I think is just as important. The mirror of fatigue is recovery. Remember, pitchers do not pitch to failure. They pitch to end of function, which is often subjectively measured. A pitcher doesn’t come out when he’s noodle-arming 75. He’s out when he drops a couple miles an hour. Pitchers often go work out after a game - Nolan Ryan - or go throw in the pen - Max Scherzer. In normal times, pitchers come back the next day and throw, then the next day, with modalities and treatments and throwing prescriptions.
We don’t know how well these pitchers are recovering, let alone how fatigued they actually are. The downside is, neither do the teams. They have some accurate guesses, some real professionals surrounding them, and maybe some secret weapons, but they’re still guessing.
Both teams have great medical staffs, solid pitching coaches, and great analytics. My guess is that they’re managing fatigue and have focused hard on recovery. So far, it’s working and I think the team that does recovery better is going to end up the winner of the Series, especially if we get to Game 7.
Management by Plan
During the games, I’ve been texting a lot with friends. One in particular has been asking a lot of questions about “management by plan”, which was on display in Game 5 several times. Both the Rays and the Dodgers don’t manage by the seat of their pants, laying out pitching programs, hitting guides, and pretty much everything else well ahead of time.
In ways, it’s an off-shoot of Joe Girardi’s Binders Full Of Baseball, but now it’s generated by multi-disciplinary teams and adhered to even when “gut baseball” is saying “pull Glasnow!” Adhering to these types of plans requires discipline and commitment, a knowledge that increasing the odds doesn’t always look right.
Of course, execution is the key. A player put in the right role and inserted in the right spot may still strike out or pop up a bunt. There’s still some room for freelancing, as Manuel Margot showed, but even that was done with the odds. His steal home came after not being held on and was a finger tip away from success. Maybe that move is something less than 50/50, but Kevin Kiermeier getting a hit off Kershaw is well south of 50 percent as well.
Management by plan is clearly the wave of the future. Old school managers are out of the game, though I’m sure we’ll see them kick a bit. Instead, we’ll need to have managers who can do the other things needed rather than making gut decisions. Personnel management, integrating coaching, managing development, and a lot of amateur psychology have more value now than in-game feel.
The question becomes how to find these managers without the standard development path and how to make better plans than other teams. With teams laying off hundreds, including scouts, analysts, and the people pouring through the data to create the plans, there’s a gap right now, but don’t be surprised if this pushes a few teams to go hard to software and AI for this kind of creation.
“Actively Eating or Drinking”
This guy became a meme last night:
I’m all for being FIRED UP, but I’m also for wearing masks. MLB has used this World Series as an experiment, with 10 to 12 thousand people paying for the privilege of being guinea pigs. I hope it works because MLB is using the lack of positive tests with fans as a push to have fans in stands next year. I don’t think any of us know how this will go through the winter, let alone into April of next year, but I do know that wearing masks helps.
I could quote or link to studies, but if you read this column and don’t believe masks help, or that you should use every prevention method available to you for anything - knee braces, masks, good helmets, pitcher head protection, everything - then I don’t know what more I can do for you.
I want to get back to the ballpark. Heck, I just want to get back to coaching some kids, but my high risk status keeps me from even stepping foot over there. The more you do everything you can, including wearing a mask, the quicker we can all go try to get on the jumbotron with some outdated wrestling move.
Game 6
There’s an off day, mostly because MLB is scared of going head to head with even a diminished version of Monday Night Football. Regardless, both teams could use a reset and recharge and Game 6 should be just as closely matched as the last two. It will be interesting to see if Blake Snell can match up against whatever the Dodgers decide to put up against him. Obviously, Snell needs to win again, but the deeper he goes, the more he saves his pen for a possible Game 7. I think we’re headed there in what’s ending up a very good, potentially classic World Series.