Under The Knife 02/26/20

Things are coming along on the UTK front. This is the first “standard format” UTK and while this isn’t exactly what it will look like, it’s closer. There’s a logo — wait until you see it! — and some ideas for t-shirts. Yes, “A Sprain Is A Tear” and “Bones Heal” are returning. We’ll have at least a couple more soft-launch pieces that you’ll get and the real launch will come March 1 with UTK starting regularly on the following day. If you have ideas, comments, or suggestions for how this can be better for you, fire them to me at theinjuryexpert@gmail.com.

I’m also going to ask a favor. Please forward this email to a friend you think would enjoy this kind of information. I know you want to keep it a secret and dominate your fantasy league again, but to keep this going, I need to set a solid base of subscribers. People like you. Thanks for that and let’s get to the injuries:

Chris Sale (SP Red Sox)

Chris Sale isn’t going to be ready on opening day due to “illness.” This seems odd on the face, but Red Sox fans should be happy with this. This has nothing to do with his arm, but with pneumonia not allowing him to have the time to ramp up by the start of the season. Instead, the Sox will both make sure Sale’s workload is built properly and limit his seasonal workload by starting him a bit late. I doubt this is the whole plan, but the idea that the Sox would take this kind of smart, patient approach with him bodes well for keeping him as healthy as possible.

Sale has a pretty narrow projection range across the various systems with MARCEL being lowest on innings at 149. STEAMER, the system I prefer for pitchers, has him at 177. The question is the shape of how he gets to those. The difference over 25 starts is essentially one inning; does he go six-per or seven-per? In this day and age, pushing Sale past six is probably malpractice, though if they’re going to skip starts, it makes the occasional 7 when he’s cruising a possibility as well.

Boston has more depth in their pen than in their rotation, so using them and monitoring workload could give them a real advantage. If they’d switch to a four-man rotation — and they probably won’t — they could really make a push to keep the 4/5 in their rotation from becoming a Strat-style weakness. My hope is that Chaim Bloom will keep some of the innovations he saw in Tampa and optimize pitcher usage, starting with their best starter.

Giancarlo Stanton (DH Yankees)

I was on radio in St. Louis today and they asked me a question about whether Giancarlo Stanton was “too muscular”. That really can’t be answered, but Stanton has had a run of muscular injuries that have to be considered. This isn’t like he’s straining and re-straining a hamstring, creating some kind of vicious cycle. This is four or five different muscular injuries, most recently his calf.

The Yankees certainly took these, and other, soft tissue injuries into account when they brought in Eric Cressey to revamp their physical systems. Paired with a strong and influential analytics team, this is one area where the Yankees should be able to turn things around quickly.

That said, it’s not going to happen overnight and Stanton might be a “tissue issue” or a guy who “ages quickly.” Comps aren’t really a help here. His top two BBRef comps are Rocky Colavito (ouch) and Jose Canseco (oof.) The third is more interesting - Harmon Killebrew. Killebrew had a couple down season in the midst of a great and powerful career. His age-29 season (1965) was slightly down, while his age-33 season (1968) was derailed by a hamstring injury suffered on a stretch at first in the All Star game. Killebrew came back from what was considered a career-threatening injury under the care of Dick Martin - who should be in the Hall of Fame - and hit 49 homers at age-34.

Stanton might not follow either pattern of Killebrew, but Yankees fans wouldn’t mind seeing that 49 homer season, especially if it comes with inflation. As I said in the Comeback players piece earlier this week, I think Stanton has a big shot at a comeback and will be a major beneficiary of the Cressey hiring. One minor strain doesn’t change that opinion.

Emanuel Clase (RP Indians)

I went to lunch a couple months ago with a Rangers official and of course we talked the Corey Kluber deal. He loved it - as did I - thought I said that Emanuel Clase, the hard throwing reliever that is a great name test*, would be a bit of a regret if he stayed healthy and became the wipe-out high-leverage reliever I think he will be. It’s still the right move for the Rangers, filling the rotation with a possible ace and risking only some high-end possibilities due to the Indians refusal to pay Kluber.

The downside risk of Clase is injury, of course, and he’s started this spring with a bad one. He has a significant strain of his teres major (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d9/Teres_minor_muscle_back3.png), which connects the scapula and the humerus. It’s not part of the rotator cuff - that’s the teres minor - but it is key to throwers due to it’s control of a key action in the motion. The Indians are saying that Clase is out 2-3 months, but given the high stress of his delivery, it will likely be on the long side of that range, maybe more.

The Indians bullpen was high risk before this injury, but could end up a mix-and-match affair unless Terry Francona locks in on Brad Hand, with Hand executing. Francona does like a delineated pen but James Karinchak is going to have to do more early than most think is ideal. If Cleveland is cold this spring, the Indians pen might look like a real weakness and there could be some opportunity to bet against that pen when they’re favorites given the low-likelihood of most of their starters going deep into games.

* Baseball always has some name tests. That is, a player like Clase - it’s kloss-ay, not klayss.

Griffin Canning (SP Angels)

The Angels already have serious rotation problems, so news that Griffin Canning is headed for an MRI on his elbow is bad, bad mojo. Sources I spoke with expect this to be a sprained UCL. Canning’s 2019 ended with an inflamed elbow, so this isn’t new, but the severity and suddenness is certainly unexpected. The worst case would be Tommy John surgery and at age-23, Canning should be able to return next season with no issue.

If he’s done for the season, the Angels really don’t have a good internal option. Shohei Otani’s usage is already complicated. Julio Teheran and Felix Pena are behind in camp due to minor issues, but behind that? Patrick Sandoval is still a prospect, but he seemed overmatched in his starts last season.

The Angels are loaded with outfielders, starting with Jo Adell, who simply don’t have places to play. Joe Sheehan has pointed out that if Adell isn’t going to be up the second the Super Two manipulation has played out, then he should be traded for the best possible starter. I’ll agree and say that it’s key for the Angels to go get someone who can eat some innings. Ross Stripling was already almost an Angel so he’s one option. I’d also suggest Chris Archer. He was bad last year, but will at worst go 150 innings and will likely be better than Sandoval.

Absent a deal or some good news from the MRI, the Angels pitching will keep Mike Trout home again in October. Given how much money Arte Moreno was willing to spend this offseason, you have to think they’ll make a move here or that he’ll be looking for a new front office next fall.

Brendan Rodgers (2B Rockies)

It seems like Brendan Rodgers has been around forever. He was a first round pick, a can’t-miss prospect, and now a major leaguer in the unenviable “can’t find a position in the bigs” conundrum. His season ended early last year after a labrum tear and early reports from Rockies camp indicates that he’s not all the way back yet. Even at second base, Rodgers isn’t going to be ready to make throws. That likely means he’ll have to DH, but the place to do that is Albuquerque, not Denver.

Labrum tears are still a 50/50 proposition and given that he’d already shifted to second, having to do that while rehabbing could have been worse. Rodgers doesn’t hit enough to go down the spectrum any more, so he’ll have to make do with what he can get back in rehab. There’s also question about what it will do to his swing, which can often take a year or more to come back. Just ask Matt Kemp.

Reports from camp aren’t very positive and sources say that they’re worried Rodgers will need the better part of a couple months in the minors to show that he’s healthy enough in the field and with the bat. Some aren’t as sure he’ll show enough and that they think this will be nearly a lost year for Rodgers. I’m not ready to doom-and-gloom Rodgers just yet, but if you’ve been holding him in dynasty leagues for years, you may want to check your keeper rules again.

Freddie Freeman (1B Braves)

Bone chips aren’t a big deal. They’re just bone spurs that have broken off and are floating around. Spurs are basically like a blister, an osseous response to stress. In the elbow, it’s usually the bones of the upper and lower arm slamming into each other as the elbow overextends on throws. That’s the likely culprit for Freddie Freeman who had both cleaned out.

That operation is even less of a big deal. An ortho once described it to me as “exactly like that game of Operation. You just reach in and pull it out and don’t light up his nose.” Pitchers have come back from this inside the old 15-day DL, so a full off-season should have Freeman’s elbow free of inflammation. It’s not.

The easy answer is that he’s doing the same things that caused it before. The Braves medical and field staff has to know that, so I have to think it’s something more than the easy answer here. The more I talk to people about this, the more concern I have but to be clear, I’m not overly concerned. Just more, like one is more than zero. What I’m listening for is some root cause, some change in what he’s doing, or that this just mystically cleared up on its own. I’ll get more worried if he goes for further exams or needs an injection of any sort.

Quick Cuts:

Luis Severino underwent Tommy John surgery with Dr. David Altchek in New York on Thursday. He’ll miss the season, but a Yankees source tells me the team is targeting “opening day or threreabouts” for his return … It’s too early in the season to make groin jokes about Justin Verlander. His injury isn’t considered serious even if it has his throwing schedule thrown off … Joc Pederson’s “side strain” isn’t an oblique. It’s a iliopsoas strain, which explains why he’s still not swinging … Eugenio Suarez had shoulder surgery in January to clean up damage after a fall. He’s not throwing yet, but indications are that it could come soon. The real question is if the shoulder will affect that new power swing. Suarez feels like Jose Bautista to me, a guy who had everything just click one year and sustained it more than most … Nick Senzel isn’t throwing or hitting yet, but Reds sources tell me that he’s on schedule with their program and is on track for opening day right now … Nick Burdi is back from Tommy John surgery and it’s cost him a couple miles an hour on his fastball. He’s down to 100 … Robert Stock has a suspected flexor tendon issue. The Phillies hope they’ve caught this early. Imaging will determine next steps … Brandon Nimmo was sent for further cardiology tests after something came back in initial testing. There’s no details at this point, though sources I spoke with don’t seem overly concerned at this stage. The team is taking this seriously, but are planning for Nimmo to be back quickly … Dustin May has a mild oblique strain which has set back his spring. He’s likely to open in the minors and come up quickly … This article is well worth reading if you missed it last summer.

One reader emailed to ask whether I could add more pictures and video to help the look of the new UTK. It’s definitely something I’m looking into. There’s not going to be a lot, but if it can help the look or demonstrate something - like Michael Kopech throwing in the upper 90’s in a pen - then I’ll use it. You’ll see more videos today and I’m going to try doing some originals as well. That said, rights issues are something I care about and people getting paid for their work is a good thing. There’s a balance and I’ll try to find it.

This is a free pre-launch Under The Knife feature. Please forward it to friends or refer them to sign up at undertheknife.substack.com. Questions to: theinjuryexpert@gmail.com.

I’m also looking for any feedback or issues on how this looks and works for you. This isn’t the final form, but I’m hoping to iterate and evolve that quickly based on what readers - you! - want. I appreciate you being among the first to sign up and for being my guinea pigs for the first week.