Top Free Agent Health Report

2025 FA Class could be an All Timer

The World Series is over and all 30 teams are back at work. The Dodgers will take a couple days to celebrate, but the accountants and the analysts will be putting together their spreadsheets, reading the projections, and getting ready for long phone calls and zooms with agents and handlers. By the time we get to Dallas, one of the best free agent markets in a decade will have shaped up, if not thinned out.

This is not going to be a quick market, even with a lot of re-sign potential at the top of the market. My expectation is that we’ll see very little movement ahead of the Winter Meetings, but that the very late signings we saw last year will be avoided as well. Despite there being no good explanation for why those late signings struggled, people noticed on all sides. It didn’t change how players are training in the off-season though, which is where there’s room for improvement.

I’m using data from Spotrac, because they have a great site and it was easy. I’m not saying I agree with every one of their estimated values, but it’s consistent and solid. There’s others out there that are good as well. The rest is on me as I make some predictions about health and even landing spots for the biggest free agents on my radar. Let’s get to it:

JUAN SOTO (NYY, $31m [2024 salary]/$37m [Spotrac estimated value])

Juan Soto is a top talent at a young age, something we haven’t seen in the free agent market since Bryce Harper. Man, those Nationals had great scouts in the 2010s. Sure, everyone knew Harper was coming, but Soto? The question now isn’t how much money he gets, but how it’s structured. Yes, Scott Boras thinks about things like this a lot and when it’s announced, it’s kind of like an aircraft carrier. The Navy liked to say it was always building the biggest carrier, so each one would be like three inches longer or two inches higher. That’s what this contract will be, somehow.

My guess is that Soto gets a shorter contract with a higher AAV. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander had those $43.3m monsters and Aaron Judge’s deal is right at $40m. Expect Soto to be just north of Judge, so that Boras can announce this as the largest valued contract for a position player. Yes, Shohei Ohtani’s is higher, so maybe Boras has to say “non-deferred value” or something like that.

On a health standpoint, Soto is about as solid as you’ll find. He’ll likely shift out of the outfield at some point in his 30’s, but it doesn’t have to be soon. Usually you’ll see players like Soto thicken up and lose some athleticism, but he hasn’t even started that yet. He’s played 150+ games every full season of his career, he’s had only minor injuries, and he doesn’t play a style that leads to injuries. If there’s any comp here, it’s Mike Trout and take that as the best and worst case scenario.

And yes, this rumor is out there:

MAX SCHERZER ($43m/$15.3m)

Max Scherzer isn’t far from being the highest paid player in baseball, but that contract did not work. Assuming he comes back, there’s a floor number he’s willing to accept, or he’ll ride off into the sunset rather than saying he’s a diminished asset. But he is. Scherzer hasn’t stayed healthy for a while, though he’s shown that the stuff is still there, just in very short bursts.

Scherzer and Justin Verlander are close to the best comps for each other (Spiderman pointing dot gif), but even a couple years younger, there’s just not many other comps for Scherzer in almost any way. He’s late career Pedro Martinez, who we’ve all memory-holed to remember the happier times.

I think there’s some team out there that gives him $10-$12m and incentives for the goodwill. It could well be Washington, who’s at least a year away. It could be the Dodgers, if they want to pair him with Clayton Kershaw on the hope-and-depth plan. However, if Texas isn’t at least involved, that’s going to be a huge red flag to teams and make his doorstop-sized medical file an even bigger issue.

JUSTIN VERLANDER (HOU, $43m/$13.7m)

Justin Verlander ended up back in Houston and it worked for both, but with his big Cohen contract running out, the question is how much he has left and where he wants to do it. The Astros front office is very different than when he arrived, but that could work in his favor. He’ll be age-42 next season, so this isn’t going to be a long term deal, nor is he the guaranteed ace any more. The best fits would either be staying in Houston and hoping everyone else stays healthy, or going somewhere on a one year deal to chase a ring. If you suddenly thought the Yankees and Dodgers, so did Verlander.

Would Houston be willing to keep him at a high one year deal? Could the Dodgers take on even more payroll, or would Verlander defer to help defend their title? All questions we won’t know for a while, but the physical for any team is going to be determinant. The neck issue that sidelined him could well be structural, leading to more issues with the arm and the potential to get worse gradually, or all at once. Again, the Dodgers willingness to take on risky pitchers reads right.

The big difference between his estimated value and his actual is not insignificant. While I think Spotrac’s value here is low, there’s even some risk in Houston making a qualifying offer. Verlander is likely to need to earn his money with ticket sales and playoff wins, and I’m just not sure the most likely teams get a boost from another aging pitcher, even on a short term deal. I expect Verlander to be one of the last big dollar guys to sign as he’ll have to wait for the market to fully form.

GERRIT COLE (NYY, $36m opt-out w buy-back/$36m)

Gerrit Cole has the 12th largest contract in baseball, but he’s also one of few old school aces. If Rob Manfred pushes through new rules that force pitchers to go six innings, Cole becomes even more valuable.

Spotrac has Cole’s value calculated right at his current level, but this is not a normal opt out. If Cole exercises it, the Yankees can lock him in by adding in another year to the deal at the same money. It makes sense for Cole to do it, and for the Yankees to quickly lock him in, though they might play a bit of roulette in the press first. Having Cole for the next five years at this money isn’t bad for the Yankees in any way. He should be just over 200 wins by the end of the extended deal.

The elbow issue is something of a concern, though he came back well and his work with the Yankees staff should be considered a plus for both sides. He’s had no leg or back issues, a concern for a power pitcher body, and despite being a workhorse, he’s nowhere near overworked physically. The Yankees can build around him, which is high praise indeed.

There’s fifteen more of these below the paywall. Just because the season is over doesn’t mean Under The Knife stops. I have plenty of off-season content, including interviews, insider info, and new tech and techniques you’ll want to hear about first. Subscribe now and never miss out.