Ten Comeback Players to Watch in 2020

Feb 26, 2020

Every year, we get the rote stories of “best shape of my life” and “made some changes in the off-season.” There’s some element of truth to them in most cases, more so with players going off on their own, training at Driveline, Cressey, or APEC. Fundamental changes, both physical and mechanical, can be made.

But hey, Under The Knife is about injuries and its the rehab cases that I focus on. I’m glad when guys get the chance to come back from injuries that might have ended careers or at least changed them. These are the most interesting, most impactful, and the ones I think are the most misunderstood in the general sports media. Go read some of the current coverage on guys and you’ll see what I mean. The lack of understanding of injuries in sports remains one of the few asymmetric information opportunies.

This isn’t a data-driven analysis like the old Team Health Reports. This is just me looking around the league, talking to people, and doing a bit of fantasy prep I thought you might enjoy. As with all of this, the important thing is not the information, but how well you can understand it and integrate it into your own systems.

Have others you want to see me discuss? Email me and I’ll add some more, if needed, into the next column.

Michael Kopech (SP White Sox)

There’s a bunch of guys coming back from Tommy John surgery - too many each year - but Michael Kopech remains one of the most interesting. Players that throw 100mph break down, period. The exception to the rule is Aroldis Chapman, but everyone else has visited one of the surgeons at least once.

This is Kopech’s second, but early reports have his velocity back in his normal three-digit range despite taking some time off to get married this spring. Kopech is the prized pupil at APEC and the White Sox double down with some serious focus on technology and arm health. If Kopech can come back and stay healthy, it’s the White Sox that would give him the best chance.

(That said, I don’t think the Sox have done the best to take advantage of their health gap in the last few years. They’re risk averse in addition to being able to keep people healthy. I would have pushed it, especially when Herm Schneider was running the sports med side.)

There’s going to be the question of whether Kopech is a starter, but if the downside is “dominating reliever”, they’ll take it. He’s risky, yes, but he’s also nearly 18 months out from his elbow surgery, has a great support team, and dominating stuff. Could he throw 95 and reduce his risk? I don’t know, but I’ll bet that the White Sox are trying to get to that answer with every tool available. Guys like Jordan Hicks and Michael Fulmer aren’t. It matters.

That said, Kopech could be one of those must watch players if he gets in an MLB game and consistently lights up 104, 105, or higher. That’d be very good for the game.

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Corey Kluber (SP Rangers)

Corey Kluber is being treated like he had a major injury last year. He missed time, but the fractured ulna is a fluke. I’m not sure how many times Kluber has been hit by a comebacker in his life, but I know he - and most pitchers - haven’t had their arms broken by one. That’s not to say this shouldn’t be taken seriously. Pitchers need head protection because when something bad happens, it’s too late to prevent.

Bones heal and Kluber’s did as well, but with the rest of the similarly fluky injuries that derailed the Indians in 2019, there was no reason to push him back when he had a minor setback. The Rangers dealt for Kluber and the physical, I’m told, was pretty extensive. He passed and the Rangers think Kluber is not only healthy, but rested now. There’s not a lot of comps for this absent a major surgery, but the few that are there do show a positive trend.

There’s no reason to really knock Kluber down much for missing a season, even though he did. He’s a year older, but the rest will help once he’s shown he’s got his stuff back. I’d expect to see that early in camp, where all the current reports are positive. In fantasy drafts, I’d expect Kluber’s ADP will steadily rise, so those of you in early drafts have an opportunity to get an ace-level starter at second or third starter cost.

Chris Sale (SP Red Sox)

Chris Sale was seen wearing a Motus sleeve this spring, which was treated as some kind of event by the Boston media. The Red Sox actually have a solid medical staff and have decent results with keeping pitchers healthy. With David Price and his elbow gone, there’s more time to focus on Sale and keeping him both healthy and effective. I think this is an underrated part of the Betts trade. While I don’t like it and think the financial aspects shows the worst parts of the current CBA and owner greed, losing Price is a bit of addition by subtraction. Price is good, but the staff is suddenly healthier, if not better.

Sale benefited from Herm Schneider’s magic touch at the start of his career and moving to Boston may have hastened his breakdown. Sale shouldn’t be considered a 190 inning pitcher any more. In fact, his 150 innings of the last two years might end up a ceiling, but the Sox have enough depth and smarts to figure out how to maximize that availability.

Using him as a standard starter is probably not the best way, but let’s face it - the Sox probably can’t just switch up the model given their current situation. The Rays can get away with an opener because they realized they didn’t have four good pitchers and because their fan base isn’t quite as … let’s call it intense. Sale could be a “Sunday starter” or they could skip starts (2 then off) if they feel that sets up better. Almost everything is TBD because of the 3-batter rule. More on this soon.

Luis Severino (SP Yankees)

UPDATE: Scratch everything I said below, with news that Severino has had Tommy John surgery recommended and that the forearm wasn’t the major issue. I’m assuming this first opinion is from Yankees team doc Chris Ahmad. That’s about as good as it gets, though I’d expect that Severino will get another opinion and make a decision on who does his surgery quickly. But since I wrote it, I’ll let you read it:

If there’s one guy I’m a bit negative on from this list, it’s Luis Severino and I hate that. Severino is one of those guys that really knows how to pitch, but if his forearm is as much of a problem as it sounds early in camp, the Yankees rotation goes from best in the division to “who’s the five?” in a hurry. Add in some injury risk for Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, and the young arms competing for the five/six slot (which could be the four/five) and spring training could be fraught with more drama than Brian Cashman would like.

Forearm injuries in pitchers are problematic. The current theory is that the flexor mass - muscle and tendon - acts as a brake for the arm, taking some of the force off the elbow’s ligaments, which by force couldn’t handle a single pitch. Stronger flexor could mean less stress on the elbow, but here in 2020, it’s still just a theory, believe it or not. (If someone out there would like to do a study, I can help you structure it. And yes, MLB should be funding all kinds of research like this. They’re not.)

Even a minor flexor strain will keep Severino from being ready at the start of the season, or at least would keep him from ramping up properly to a starter level. I have a lot of belief in the new Yankees S&C department, led by Eric Cressey, so doing things right is likely to be a safe assumption. I’m actually more worried by his shoulder, given the injuries last year, than his elbow. Even in the worst case - Tommy John - it’s a much easier recovery than most shoulder injuries. It’s hard to imagine $10m is “cheap”, but that’s a nice number for the Yankees if they can get and keep Severino healthy through 2023. It could be a struggle.

Bonus: while I mentioned Gerrit Cole as “risky” up there, that’s relative. It’s mostly that he’s got a lot of innings for his age, a function of being good and durable, and that he throws very, very hard. Face it, when Cole and Jameson Taillon were both in the Pirates system, they were considered very equivalent prospects. Health is the difference here and it was utterly unpredictable.

Lance McCullers (SP Astros)

Lance McCullers is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Simple as that. So let’s talk about two things adjacent. First, Tommy John surgery shouldn’t have a rehab as long as people are having it. I think six to nine months is reasonable based on the biology and what we know of how the body responds to a very standard surgery. The calendar is often the deciding factor, as in “who cares if this guy is ready in December?”

Second, I wonder if Astros pitchers might end up getting a bit wonky because they may end up having to answer when one of their players gets beaned. If so, they’ll get tossed and likely suspended. That’s part of the game, but accounting for it in projections is difficult. I can’t say it will happen a lot, but we’re talking about erasing a start or two. With a good pitcher only getting 25 to 27 starts, that’s significant. I wouldn’t adjust projections too much, but it’s really in the back of my head as I do some draft prep.

Felix Pena (P Angels)

Felix Pena had an unusual injury for a pitcher - an ACL sprain - that was reconstructed last fall. We think of this as a nine to twelve month recovery, but for a pitcher, that’s a bit of an unknown. I have a pitcher at UIndy coming back from a similar sprain and surgery that happened in October; we’re expecting him back in April.

Pena is already throwing from the mound, so the questions now are can his right knee hold up to the torsion of a delivery and can he build up his workload? I won’t pretend to know about the first, but the answer is likely yes. Pitchers come back from this all the time, though setbacks and re-dos aren’t unheard of either. The workload is the bigger issue, though indications are that the Angels are willing to let him work as a reliever, despite their rotation woes. If Joe Maddon can’t figure out a way to use the resources he has, including using Pena as a multi-inning reliever or even “opener”, then he doesn’t deserve the money Arte Moreno is paying him.

I’m also a bit curious if Pena had a “standard” ACL reconstruction. There’s a chance, given their relationship with several doctors in the area that use InternalBrace, that Pena had this used on his ACL. It would not only speed up the timeline, but guard against setback. I hope one of my beat writer friends will ask the question, even if it’s unlikely we get a straight answer.

Hunter Greene (P Reds)

If there’s any pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery who’s in a position to really come on quickly, it’s Hunter Greene. Given the climate in Cincinnati for innovation, I think they’ll see that Greene doesn’t need to spend much time in Dayton or even Pensacola. He could end up in Cincinnati by July, if things go right.

Once upon a time, I posited that pitchers don’t really lose time to Tommy John surgery in the minor leagues. Guys would regularly come back and their projections were “more correct” if you just pretended they leveled up as normal. They didn’t “lose it” as much as just didn’t actually do it. They could be “pushed”, though it wasn’t really pushing them.

(In the majors? Its a lost year. But they don’t have to step back. Tommy John survivors come back at level.)

Greene is a hard thrower that could slot in to long relief, even short relief if they want to be conservative. This isn’t saying he can’t start, but again we have a young, hard thrower who ended up with that so-familiar elbow scar. Relieving doesn’t make him safer, but it does make him more manageable.

Giancarlo Stanton (DH Yankees)

Giancarlo Stanton had a lost 2019, playing in just 23 games and hitting just three homers. At 308 and age-30 this year, he’s on the edge for 500 homers and a Hall of Fame spot. That 59 homer season is unlikely to recur and at this age, hitting 35 homers a year for the rest of his Yankee deal only gets him shy of 600. That’s nothing to sneeze at as a possibility, but which is more likely — a fifty homer season or another injury-plagued season in the single digits?

Stanton was injury plagued last year, but does that make him injury prone? He had a number of different, unrelated injuries, but all of them were muscular. He’d never had those kind of problems before and muscular issues can be a sign of decline. I’m very reluctant to look at a player like Stanton and say he’s in rapid decline and his body’s breaking down. Look at him, that makes no sense.

But it’s possible. Possible is risk and risk has to be acknowledged.

Stanton - right now - comes down to belief. Word from Yankees camp is that Stanton will start off with no restrictions and that his rehab and strength work this offseason has been a success. Remember that the Yankees brought in Eric Cressey to run their S&C, though that happened too late to completely guide Stanton (as far as we know.)

We should be able to see if he’s healthy, but this won’t be binary. Muscle strains of the type he had last season shouldn’t happen on day one, but the risk will only slowly trend down and never go away entirely. My guess is that Stanton’s base and the new Yankees staff will give Stanton a great shot at a comeback season.

Christian Yelich (LF Brewers)

Injuries are often parts of the great “what ifs” in baseball. If Christian Yelich is healthy at the end of the season and into the playoffs, how far do the Brewers go? His fractured kneecap needed minimal assistance healing and he was already walking normally by the time the Arizona Fall League geared up. He’s been hitting for a while, with one unconfirmed rumor that he did his early work with a catcher’s shinguard covering his injured knee.

But come on. If true, there has to be a better way. Fouls off the leg aren’t uncommon at all, but they also seldom create an injury like this. I don’t know of a recent MLB injury that’s comparable. I’m sure Evoshield could come up with a kneepad if Yelich asked nicely, but I’m not sure it’s needed either.

There’s no reason to think there will be a setback. There’s no reason to think this will happen again. There’s no evidence to show that his running or hitting will be affected. Even though the Brewers are shifting Yelich to left this season, that seems to have nothing to do with the injury. Add in a good medical staff and anyone not treating Yelich like the MVP-level player he is in drafts is doing it wrong.

Salvador Perez (C Royals)

Catchers and Tommy John surgery seems like something bad and certainly, you don’t want it, but the success of this all-too-common surgery is at or somewhat higher than the level we see for pitchers. There’s almost no real research on this (or position players in general) but the normal thought is that catchers don’t make as many high-intent throws and don’t fatigue out. I’m less sure about that one, especially because of the awkward mechanics of many throws. If fatigue is the real enemy rather than stress, catchers might be worse off.

Sal Perez — and I think we’re safe just calling him “Sal” at this point in his career - should have no issues returning. He’s already been throwing, has a solid medical staff in Kansas City, and shouldn’t be overworked given a credible backup, whether that’s Cam Gallagher or Meibrys Viloria. Add in some time at DH and Perez should have every chance to come back normally.

At age-30, if Perez shows that his 20-HR power is back, the Royals will need to start thinking about shifting him to DH more to protect him against injury in general. Perez is not, I believe, related to the Molinas and therefore not immune to the laws of physiology. I think Perez should be fine in regards to the elbow, but the overall breakdown of catchers with ‘mileage’ is real.

My guy Joel Henard tells me that the Royals have one decent catching prospect - MJ Melendez - but he’s at A-ball and a ways off. Catching prospects are tough to read at the best day, so the Royals don’t have a solution to this issue in the near future. I think “roboumps” and strike zone changes might really change the game for catching over the next five years, so solutions might change.

Bonus: If I’m a development guy right now, I’m trying to convert anyone that can hit to catcher. Framing could be completely devalued in the way that strong arms have been. If a catcher doesn’t have to call a game, that’s even less to teach. There’s a minimum level of skill needed, but getting more bat back there could pay off handesomely.

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