Black & Blue Report 12/10/20

Brees return, Newton questions, McCaffrey breakdown and more

Week 14 is here, just as Week 13 is over. There was a glitch with Yahoo’s automated week-ending reports that kind of symbolized this season. It got sent out - in what is the final regular season game for most fantasy leagues - without counting Tuesday’s games, which sent a lot of people into a tizzy. They’d thought they won, and here they get the weekly email saying no, you didn’t.

It’s a simple mistake. Tuesday games aren’t supposed to happen, so whatever automated system that puts it together just didn’t get re-programmed to bring in that one important game. (For automated, these emails actually come out pretty well and are the kind of thing AI is designed to do, so don’t see this as Yahoo bashing.)

I hope no one threw a phone or got their heart rate too high before they realized what happened, but it’s a reminder of just how far the game has come and how passionate people still are about it. I tried to think of a gambling equivalent, but there have been so many glitches and quirks over the years that none stood out.

This one’s free for everyone, so let’s get to the injuries:

Drew Brees QB NO (fractured ribs)

Drew Brees could play as soon as this week, but I don’t see any reason why he would. Bones heal in a progressive and predictable fashion, easily seen on X-ray and other similar images. With Taysom Hill keeping the Saints going — odd stat: the Saints are 8-0 when Brees is out the last few years — there’s really no rush. They have a three game lead on the Bucs and a game on the Packers for that all important single bye this year, so there’s some wiggle room.

That said, the medical staff will know when the bones have healed and at that point, there shouldn’t be any reason Brees couldn’t come back out. There’s a re-injury risk, but it’s not greatly elevated over any other play or quarterback given the risks of the position. Adding in a good flak jacket would be a big help as well. Brees hasn’t been out long enough to worry about arm strength and his work on mechanics is ingrained at this stage.

The Saints have framed this as Brees needing time before the playoffs to get his timing back, but that seems a bit far fetched. Brees has missed time before and come back quickly, so with all this lined up, I think we’ll see Brees take Week 14 off, come back in Week 15, but he could have a very quick hook or more packages for Taysom Hill installed to limit his exposure. Next year? Far too early to say but there’s been far more talk about Brees as a political candidate, either in a tough run for the traditionally Democratic 2d Congressional District, which is basically New Orleans, or for John Kennedy’s Senate seat, both up in 2022.

Christian McCaffrey RB CAR (sprained shoulder/strained quad)

I hate the term ‘injury prone’ but given the way 2020 has gone for Christian McCaffrey, it’s hard to avoid the term altogether. McCaffrey has gone from severe high ankle sprain to AC sprain and now, he has a quad strain. This one is muscle instead of ligament, so we can’t say they’re entirely related, but as a whole, we have to wonder what changed. There’s one obvious answer - the whole world! - but that’s a bit facile for this case.

Players do not tend to go from durable to fragile overnight at an early stage of the career, but running backs that take a lot of hits do wear down. Again, this doesn’t appear to be the case. The first two of McCaffrey’s injuries were traumatic. He rolled his leg and he fell on his shoulder. That’s bad luck, not a breakdown.

We also have an interesting test in that McCaffrey’s brothers also play football. If something significant changed in McCaffrey’s workouts, there would likely be some overlap and neither have developed the same kind of issues. It’s not an apples-to-apples, but it’s an additional data point.

The most likely explanation then is simple bad luck. Anyone can have a bad year and when playing, McCaffrey doesn’t appear to be losing skill. It’s good timing for a bad year for the Panthers, given their situation, and Mike Davis has been given a chance to emerge as a solid RB2. While McCaffrey’s return may be held up this week, the quad strain is minor, and McCaffrey is likely to be a bit underrated both for the last couple weeks of the season and in next year’s fantasy drafts.

Antonio Gibson RB WAS (turf toe)

Turf toe hurts and if this is more than just a simple sprain, Antonio Gibson could miss the rest of the season. That would take some of the shine off the Football Team’s unlikely run, where 5-7 is tied for the lead. Gibson was their top rusher in nine of those games, but only three times was over 60 yards.

Gibson injured his toe and the medical staff tried a couple different things to try and get him back out there - something in the shoe, tape over the shoe, and then a tape job on the toe - but nothing worked to relieve the pain and Gibson was pulled. He’s definitely out this week, so J.D. McKissick and Peyton Barber will share the touches and targets. McKissick is the more valuable one, though Alex Smith is checking down far less as he’s grown more comfortable in the pocket.

Listed as doubtful now, I think the Football Team will push that to “out” by the end of the week and going forward, this is going to come down to when Gibson can push off that foot again. This is one of those injuries that doesn’t seem serious, but could alter the whole season, one that should be remembered as near miraculous give Smith’s story. My hope is this isn’t the worst case scenario, that Gibson returns and is effective, and that the next owner of the team decides to keep “Football Team” as the name.

Philip Rivers QB IND (injured toe)

The Colts QB1 does have a history of playing through pain, but toes are a tough one. Sources tell me he just has an extremely high pain tolerance, but that the team is concerned about how the toe will react with the new turf in Vegas and in two games at home. There’s a chance we see some packages for Jacoby Brissett to give Rivers a break or to allow the medical staff to do some work. Rivers isn’t mobile, but he’s going to need to have at least the ability to scramble, so there is a point at which the Colts would have to make a decision.

In the longer term, this shouldn’t affect Rivers decision on whether to return. If the Colts want that bridge to be longer to their next QB, Rivers’ toe will need surgery regardless. He’ll need it even if he’s going to walk the sidelines as a high school coach in Alabama, so this isn’t something where we get any sort of tell on him coming back. (I guarantee you someone will screw that up.) The interesting part to me is that we haven’t heard anything about increased snaps for Jacob Eason. Have the Colts lost faith in their rookie already, which mesh with reports that the team has been scouting Kyle Trask and Mac Jones heavily?

Don’t expect the Colts to change much about their offense for Rivers’ situation. He’ll play and even if he’s out, Brissett will run most of the same packages. TY Hilton would get a bit of a gain since Brissett can throw the deep ball, but that’s about it for value.

For the geeks, why “injured” toe instead of strain or sprain? There’s no accepted medical term for fascial tears, so unless there’s a coexistent injury which can define it, there’s no real guidance for this. I’ll stick with the broader term.

D’Andre Swift RB DET (concussion)

Concussions don’t have a standard timeline and D’Andre Swift has learned that one the hard way. He’s made progress, had setbacks, but so far this week, things are looking more positive than they have the last couple weeks. His limited reps on Wednesday indicate that he’s in the latter stages of the protocol and should be cleared Friday or Saturday ahead of this week. Once back and clear of both the concussion and the non-COVID illness, Swift should be ready to take a healthy load, though still sharing with Adrian Peterson. I’m expecting him in the 12-15 range in terms of PPR fantasy points.

Once cleared, treat Swift as you have in the past. With the new coaching staff, they might be a little more likely to unleash him a bit and look to the future. Swift is definitely going to be a draw for someone like an Eric Bienemy. Much of the criticism of the Lions offense is that it was held back. I think while last week was about opening up Matthew Stafford, this week will be about a more complete offense that features Swift.

The over/under on this is 55, which seems like the oddsmakers think this will be high scoring, but even with a new offensive mindset in Detroit, this is unlikely to be a shootout. It’s easy to think of 55 as being equivalent to 28-27, which is of course correct, but Packer games have been under 55 five times so far this season, including last week’s with an Eagles team in disarray. I think with Swift back, this one looks more like the 49ers game from a couple weeks ago, so I’m on the under.

Keke Coutee WR HOU (inflamed knee)
Brandin Cooks WR HOU (“foot”)

The Texans have always had talented receivers like Will Fuller and Keke Coutee during the Bill O’Brien era. They just couldn’t keep them healthy long enough to consistently build them up. Add in the drops to Coutee’s file and he’s tough to love. He showed none of that last week in a breakout game, forced by Fuller’s absence. Unfortunately, he came out of the game with a swollen knee. There’s not a lot of details on this, so we’ll have to watch practice to see if it is holding Coutee back on routes. That would really hurt his value and push even more onto a run game that hasn’t gelled.

The same is true for Brandin Cooks. As a speed/slot guy, he came into the season as a real weapon, but he’s not the guy that should be DeShaun Watson’s first option. Cooks was checked for concussion during last week’s game, but cleared the test and is said to just have a sore neck from the whip. More concerning is him being listed on Houston’s injury report with “foot.” There’s no info on this, but it’s clearly a potential problem. If Cooks is out, I’d back completely out of everything Houston, including Watson.

Bumps & Bruises:

Cam Newton’s abdominal strain is one of those annoying injuries, but it shouldn’t affect his performance at all, either throwing or running. That makes the +4.5 pretty nice given how Newton has been successful this season. If you’re interested in making this bet, consider using BetMGM, who is a new partner of UTK and is giving a bonus you can see at the link for new signups in certain states … Frank Gore is in the latter stages of the concussion protocol, as evidenced by his limited practice on Wednesday. He’s on track to play Sunday, which limits the value for all those who ran out and picked up Ty Johnson off waivers … The Giants will make a call on Daniel Jones Friday. His hamstring is healing, but the recurrence risk remains. Colt McCoy is ready, but I think they go to Jones as they (somehow!) try to win the division … Matthew Stafford is still dealing with the sprained throwing thumb, but it didn’t get any worse by playing last week … Tua Tagovailoa has had his throws capped in practice, but he’s in no danger of missing a game. The worry is more that he will fall on it or hit a helmet than any grip issue … Josh Jacobs has a “severe underlying issue” in his ankle, which is why “not a severe sprain” was both correct but unhelpful heading into last week. He’s out again this week and potentially much longer. As yet, surgery isn’t the chosen course, but this could change … Todd Gurley missed a game and came back well. The Falcons medical staff have his knee issues under control and it sounds like he’ll be back to normal volume this week … Julio Jones hasn’t practiced this week, but it sounds like that was the plan. He’s expected to practice Friday and play Sunday … With Justin Jackson coming off the IR later this week, Kalen Ballage falls further down the depth chart. It was hard to tell in last weekend’s blowout how the Chargers were going to set up their backfield share with Austin Ekeler back, so we’re left guessing again this week … Curtis Godwin had the pins removed from his previously broken finger. This is a normal procedure and the only issue is the pain, plus a small open wound that will need to be protected while it heals. He should be able to play without issue.

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