Black & Blue Report 1/1/21

Goodbye 2020, Hello Injuries

We made it through 2020, so aside from all the thanks I can give you for riding along with me through it, I want to wish everyone a new year. Forget “happy” this year, I just want a better year and perhaps a new start for everyone that struggled last year. Flipping a calendar isn’t going to magically make everything different or get rid of COVID, but here’s to a year that isn’t a psychological sledgehammer. Now, let’s get to it:

The Sitouts

Betting on Week 17 is always a problem, but problems are opportunities if you look at them the right way. If you want to put some money down, especially if you do it with our friends at BetMGM, then this is the week out of all 17 where there’s a real chance to use the information you have over the herd to gain an advantage. When someone like Patrick Mahomes sits out, it’s no different than when he had an injury last year and missed a game. We saw how much the Chiefs offense relies on Mahomes’ unique skill set and ability to improvise, so even with all the other pieces in place - and don’t think the starters will get exposed much - the team’s ability factor dropped.

You can apply the same kind of logical analysis to any of the players that are going to sit out this week. Treat it like an injury and adjust your models. The tougher ones are the players that don’t get the attention but will get pulled early. Bad teams do this more than you realize as they use the last few games to get more looks at players that are on the roster bubble. This year more than most, there have been less chances to get “full go” looks at players during practice, so you could see a lot of names you don’t know in the second halves of games, making the line wiggle like jello.

There’s advantages to be had here. You’ll have to watch the moves and make some real adjustments to any model, but they are there. Good luck. I don’t like the risk and the guessing that often happens here, as the NFL doesn’t require any sort of disclosure on anything regarding playing time, just availability. You’ll get the standard inactives, but that’s it. This is yet another area where the NFL needs to modernize it’s procedures in an era of in-play betting availability.

Kyler Murray QB ARZ (sprained ankle)
Various Cardinals

Kyler Murray’s secret “lower leg injury” really isn’t that big a deal. At worst, it’s a minor high ankle sprain, but most sources have said it’s more of a combination of bruise, sprain, and swelling in the lower leg area, leading to a disagreement within the Cardinals staff as to what to call it. They end up with the NHL-sounding vagary, but the bottom line is that Murray will play. His Thursday practice included some running and hard cuts, so things look positive for his normal style.

It is an interesting question if Murray could play effectively with limited mobility. I think this is where his height would be a real disadvantage and while I think he certainly could do it, switching style in a week is not the way to make him successful. Shotgun snaps and short passes would be the easy adjustments, so if you think Murray will be limited, Christian Kirk might be a PPR dream (for those of you that play Week 17 fantasy and all of you are too smart to do that.)

Beyond Murray, there’s a lot of banged up Cardinals, but this is a must-win game so you’ll likely see a push to get anyone out there that’s possible, even with severe limitations. Jumping quickly through all the questionable, DeAndre Hopkins (hip), Hassan Reddick (hip), and Budda Baker (neck) all likely to play, though the Friday practice report on Baker wasn’t great. There’s bigger questions for Larry Fitzgerald (groin) and Chase Edmonds (hip), who will be game time decisions.

David Bakhtiari OT GB (sprained knee)

I’m glad I waited a day to send this out because the practice injury to David Bakhtiari is one of the more consequential ones around the league. Bakhtiari is headed to an MRI on Thursday morning and while I don’t know the results as of my writing of this, the Packers know from manual testing that he has a damaged ACL and is done for the season. It’s as simple as that, leaving Aaron Rodgers to the playoffs without his pass blocker.

For next season, many are saying that Bakhtiari will have a hard time making it back for the start of things. I don’t get this. The NFL’s standard timeline for an ACL rehab is six to nine months, so even on the long end, Bakhtiari should have plenty of time to get the knee ready. The Packers will be conservative with him, but missing camp isn’t that big a deal to a veteran assuming the offense remains the same.

And yes, I really did see someone on Twitter asking if it was “just sprained or torn”. I walked away, did a little breathing exercise, and chalked it up to 2020’s bad mojo. Someone help me get the “A Sprain Is A Tear” t-shirts back up for sale.

Tyler Boyd WR CIN (concussion)
Tee Higgins WR CIN (strained hamstring)

The Bengals are a tough team to read. They’ve looked better the last couple weeks with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Houston. They’ve done it with backup quarterbacks, but depth is always an issue. If both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are out, it won’t matter who’s at quarterback since they’ll be down to something like 6 or 7 on their depth chart, which wasn’t that deep or talented to begin with. Alex Erickson is the one likely to get targets, but who’d have thought that AJ Green would be the healthy one this season?

Then again, Tyler Boyd is on track to return from concussion. He’s had no issue getting through the steps of the protocol and only needs to be cleared in the final phase, expected Friday. A source tells me Boyd’s had only limited symptoms since the concussion and they resolved quickly, so Boyd should come back to his normal role even with limited practice time.

Higgins is more touch and go, with a Grade I hamstring strain that he’s been dealing with, but that got significantly worse last week. There was worry that he had re-strained it, but my source said it was cramping more than actual muscular damage. It’s still not a good sign, but if he practices well on Friday, Higgins will go. He’s a risky play for a lot of reason, including the chance he is active but is pulled early.

Anthony Castonzo OT IND (sprained ankle)

Anthony Castonzo is done for the season and maybe just done. He’s scheduled for ankle surgery - I’ve heard a couple different things, but can’t confirm them - in the next week. With either, it’s the kind of surgery he would need regardless of his ‘21 plans. For a guy his size, he’s going to need a stable base for almost anything. With injuries and illness across the line, the Colts are still uncertain who’ll be at left tackle for them as of today, though Quentin Nelson shifting over is one possibility.

For Castonzo, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t come back if he wanted after surgery, even not knowing the surgery’s exact details yet. There’s none, absent major complications, that would be career threatening. The Colts are likely to look for a tackle - Alex Leatherwood from Alabama is often mentioned as a possibility - in the draft coming up regardless, given Castonzo’s age and injury history.

However, that first round pick could be very fluid. There’s a lot of quarterbacks and if Philip Rivers walks away and onto his high school coaching career, the Colts are going to be in a very weird place. The quarterbacks they like will be gone by the time they pick, including Mac Jones, who multiple sources tell me is getting major push from Nick Saban. One source says that Jones is a “lock for the top ten. Add in a good performance through the bowls and a solid Combine and he could get ahead of Josh Fields.” An Alabama quarterback with the Jets? Nah. Regardless, the Colts are likely to be back in the same position they were last year, but with a much shallower pool of quarterbacks to draw from. My guess is the Colts end up making a trade for one of the “rescue quarterbacks” like Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garappolo, or maybe the Lions decide to deal Matthew Stafford away.

DeShaun Watson QB HOU (ulnar nerve entrapment)

DeShaun Watson’s arm injury is a little more complicated than how most people are explaining this and a lot more worrisome. Usually, being compared to Peyton Manning is a good thing for a quarterback, but nerve issues in the arm aren’t the one you want and that’s where Watson is. While many are saying “he hit his funny bone” it’s a lot more than that. The ulnar nerve - the one you’ve all hit before and creatively cursed - is very exposed in the elbow but absent those quirky hits, the reason it’s not constantly a problem is that it shifts and bends a little inside the joint. Think of it like the wiring that runs from your car into the door. There’s likely a small bendable conduit if you look next time you open it up. The ulnar nerve runs in the same kind of channel.

But what if one end of the nerve gets held in place? Well, it throws off how it can bend or move. Sometimes that’s scar tissue, as can happen in Tommy John surgery. The ulnar nerve is near the ulnar collateral ligament and Tommy John himself was the first with that complication. For Watson, it’s far more likely that the nerve is entrapped up in his shoulder or even in his neck. It’s common as an early sign for a disc problem in the neck to show up as nerve impingement. If this is the case, it’s correctable, but it’s far from ideal. Manning played well during his nerve issues and pretty well after it, so I don’t think this is the end or the downfall for Watson, but it’s more than bumping a nerve.

Bumps & Bruises:

Jared Goff had surgery on his thumb to stabilize the joint after a dislocation. This isn’t one he can return from quickly in most cases, so even if things go well for them, I’m not sure when he could return. The short side on this is normally four weeks, so absent a Super Bowl run, Goff’s season feels over … Matthew Stafford’s ribs are playable, but the Lions are worried about his ankle sprain. Chase Daniel may get the nod early this week as the Lions are very ready to turn the page on this season … Alex Smith will play this week after missing last week with a big leg laceration. There’s some rumblings that despite his storybook return this year, Smith could be ready to hang it up. If so, he’s had the Disney movie season and the Football Team does have a shot at the playoffs … Ronald Jones has the Bucs coaches convinced he can go on Sunday despite his finger issue. If so, he’s still risky with re-injury or ball security. Leonard Fournette (core) is a likely scratch if Jones plays … Cam Akers makes it two weeks in a row that the Rams have lost an RB to a high ankle sprain. It was home and away, so it’s not the field, but likely just a fluke, one that leaves Malcolm Brown as the top remaining RB and one who should get some extra tape … Frank Gore is out this week with a concussion. The Jets aren’t even thinking about him playing, though he will have to pass through the concussion protocol as part of an exit physical at the very least … Remember Christian McCaffrey? He’s out again this week, meaining the likely top pick in many leagues played three games this season. Where do you rank McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley for next year? … Cole Beasley isn’t going to play in Week 17, with nothing to play for. The question is whether his knee injury is in fact an MCL sprain. If so, getting him back without the bye in play is going to be tight. Beasley is quick and shifty, exactly the type that is most affected by an MCL issue. Look for Gabriel Davis to be even more involved in the offense this week … Terry McLaurin has a high ankle sprain and would be out already in most weeks. With a must win game, the Football Team is holding out some hope for a miracle … Robby Anderson was back at practice, but why push through the groin strain if you’re him or the Panthers? I get pride but this one is confusing to me given all the 4 and 5 win teams, plus the Panthers’ draft needs … Kenny Golladay won’t play the last game due to his hip issue. It’s an “if it was the playoffs” type situation, but this is the Lions … There’s a chance that Andrew Whitworth could be activated this week, but if the Rams make it through to the playoffs, Whitworth could be back for the wild card round after healing up his MCL/PCL sprain … The Chargers are likely to sit Joey Bosa out after his concussion. There’s no reason for him to play, though again, he’ll likely pass the concussion protocol early next week for reasons involving exit physicals and worker’s comp laws in California … There’s some big names on the COVID list this week, like Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Remember that late adds don’t have time to test out of the list.

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