Black & Blue Report 11/20/20

Free Friday: Brees broken, Bridgewater down, and more

I decided to wait a day - there were no key injuries heading into the Thursday game - and make Black & Blue the Free Friday, since I haven’t done that yet this season. There’s plenty to discuss so let’s get right to it:

Drew Brees QB NO (fractured ribs/damaged rib cartilage)

Drew Brees has broken ribs, but its how he got them is the real issue. We all saw Brees get driven into the turf — controversially, a penalty on the play — but the ribs were problematic before and perhaps broken. There’s no way the Saints medical staff put him out there without him knowing and without believing he was going to be fine, but it was still a risk. If he was playing with painkillers, that didn’t help the situation, though it remains far too common in the NFL. One play like what happened and Brees has multiple broken ribs, some cartilage issues, and his lung collapsed. Yes, that’s as bad as it sounds.

Until he heals up, he obviously can’t play, or at least until he heals up enough that they don’t think the same thing happens with the same kind of play, which is obviously a risk. Late word is that Taysom Hill is taking the starter reps in practice, so we may get to see just how far Sean Payton is willing to take the Hill experiment. Rib injuries can be really varied, but they’re also a super-redundant structure. Each of the ribs acts as a bit of support so even if some break, the whole internal body isn’t exposed. On an evolutionary basis it was supposed to be a last resort defense. With modern medicine, it’s painful but heals properly nearly every time.

It’s a bit tougher to put a timeline on this due to the varied healing of bone and cartilage. Brees has been remarkably healthy, with even his major surgical issue healing so well as to be a complete outlier for that type of shoulder repair. With any bone, four to six weeks is the standard. That’s likely to be the quoted timeline, with Brees’ affected by how the backups play. My guess is we’ll start to see Brees ready at the three to four week mark. That said, the rib cartilage is going to be the complicating factor and it could take longer.

Teddy Bridgewater QB CAR (sprained knee)

Teddy Bridgewater has a mild MCL sprain and could play, in the “if this was the playoffs” sense. It’s not and he won’t. Instead, the Panthers will run with a lot of backups, which can be good if you’re Mike Davis, less good unless you think PJ Walker learned a lot in the AAF. The hope in Carolina is that Bridgewater is ready next week and that the starting contingent is ready to take over.

Keep in mind that with both Bridgewater and McCaffrey - who won’t play either - there’s a bit of a tank issue. The Panthers have played too well to get one of the top quarterbacks, so Bridgewater is the likely starter next year, so keeping him healthy becomes more of a priority. That said, the better the pick, the quicker this team should get better. New ownership is helping, but while the NFL can turn quickly but worst-to-first is still a difficult act if the pieces don’t line up just right.

Expect Bridgewater back at practice next week and a decision on him playing to be very clear well ahead of Week 12. The knee sprain is minor enough to be a secondary consideration, but as conservative as the Panthers have been with everything else, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out another week either.

By the way, the fact that it’s not the knee that he damaged earlier has almost nothing to do with it. Surgical reconstructions are so good these days that you can essentially use in-game function as a proxy for anatomical functionality. There’s minor considerations to second surgeries, but for all practical purposes, the knee is whole.

D’Andre Swift RB DET (concussion)

D’Andre Swift practiced on Wednesday, spoke to the media after, but then came up with a concussion. No one seems to know when this happened and the Lions aren’t giving any info on this aside from the boilerplate “he’s in the protocol.” Fact is, it doesn't matter. A concussion is a concussion and with the timing, Swift shouldn’t have time to make it back to clearance.

“Shouldn’t.” The concussion protocols get a little bit wiggly sometimes. As written, its a step a day, but in practice we’ve seen it move in both directions. I’ve struggled with how to explain this without just saying “the NFL plays fast and loose with its own rules” since that’s not exactly true. Let’s just leave it at “there’s wiggle room” for now.

Swift’s situation should be very clear on Sunday. Either he’s made it out of the protocol and will play normally or he’ll be ruled out and Adrian Peterson will pick up his touches. Swift has been coming into his own over the last few weeks, so this is a setback for a team that has problems all over, but seems to have at least found a solution at one position. If I’m the next Lions coach, I at least know of two positions I don’t have to fix.

Clyde Edwards-Hilaire RB KC (illness)

In 2020, we take “illness” in a completely different way. There’s no sign yet that Clyde Edwards-Hilaire has more than a simple cold or flu-like symptom that kept him out of practice. In fact, I hear that his illness is on the very mild side, but that 2020 got him to report the symptom and have the team say “nah, just stay home.” That’s smart management but it does make a fantasy read a bit tough.

We should see with both practice reports from Friday and travel rosters on Saturday how serious this is. The Chiefs shouldn’t be greatly affected, despite Darrel Williams also missing practice. They have LeVeon Bell and Darwin Thompson at the ready, and worst case is Patrick Mahomes throwing a lot and adding more sprint sweeps, which isn’t actually that bad.

Best guess is that CEH is ready to go, is used normally, but that he has a bit of a cap on his work just in case he’s a bit off his game. I don’t think there’s a significant adjustment to be made on anything but Edwards-Hilaire’s expected production here and even that should only be a slight downward adjustment.

James Robinson RB JAX (sprained shoulder)

James Robinson has been an absolute find for the Jaguars this year. It’s hard to say this is a system creation, where whoever gets the touches gets the yards. That hasn’t been the case even with better runners and better quarterbacks. Instead, he’s showed real skill and durability.

That makes Robinson’s mild shoulder sprain a little worrisome. There’s always the concern that the grind of a lot of touches will break any runner, let alone one that hasn’t done it before. This may not be a warning sign that he’s wearing down, but then again, it might be. The Panthers would be smart to cut his touches some, since he appears to be something they’ll want on next year’s team and beyond.

The shoulder sprain itself isn’t concerning, though it is problematic for a power runner like Robinson. His Friday practice status will be a key as to whether he’ll play normally on Sunday, but I’m curious to see if the analytically minded Jags adjust to this situation. I think there’s more than a chance that they see Robinson as fungible. If a team found one once, they often think they can do it over and over.

Kyler Murray QB ARZ (sprained shoulder)

Kyler Murray almost came back against the Seahawks on Thursday but not quite. During much of the game, the Cardinals medical staff worked to keep his arm loose and warm, using heating packs, having him throw, and more we didn’t get to see, especially during halftime, when he seemed to get a lot better.

Murray landed on his shoulder and likely has a low grade AC sprain. He was able to play and throw well, though he looked a bit more reluctant to take hits and make runs. He slid quicker and was noticeably dodging hits, which is interesting since he should probably be doing that more at his size anyway. It’s nice to know he has the skill.

AC sprains have been common over the last few years, especially with quarterbacks. We’ve seen Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, and others miss time with this injury. Like any ligament issue, it comes in grades and Murray appears to have a low grade one. Keeping him loose was the key in the immediate aftermath, but now the Cards will have to see how it swells and deals with it the day after. They should be able to get him back to near normal, especially with the extra time ahead of Week 12. If he makes practice mid-week next week, there’s no real reason to worry.

Bumps & Bruises:

Matthew Stafford is still dealing with a sprained thumb. It’s affecting his grip, which is affecting his throws. He’s likely to play, but there’s no way to protect the thumb without causing more issues … Glute? Not sure where Nick Foles’ gluteus medius got involved, but the hip pointer from where he got slammed down is a painful if not serious situation. The team is watching how he responds to treatment and remember, Mitchell Trubisky isn’t fully healthy either. Kyle Sloter? The Bears are lucky with their bye week … Drew Lock is listed as “ribs”, but i think he’s also having an issue with his hip given the way he stood between plays. He’s splitting reps with Brett Rypien and I think the Broncos are leaning to Rypien … With Hill at QB, Alvin Kamara’s foot injury becomes a much bigger issue. If he’s out of practice Friday, I’m completely out on all Saints and looking hard at where the current -3.5 shifts. There’s just no way the Saints can be real favorites, so this might be free money … Jalen Richard is out of practice as he heals up from a chest bruise. He just couldn’t take a hit right now, so it’s likely he’s limited or out this weekend. His touches should shift to Theo Riddick, though Jon Gruden could old school it to Josh Jacobs and overwork him … Still no sign of Joe Mixon at practice as his foot injury continues to keep him out. The Bengals are likely to be without him again this week … Allen Lazard should be back this week after core muscle (sports hernia) surgery. We should know after Friday’s practice. A full go means he’ll play against the Colts … Laviska Shenault isn’t back from his hamstring, which isn’t unexpected. Barring a Friday miracle, Keelan Cole will get his targets but doesn’t have the YAC possibilities to make him a great sub … Add a mild sprained ankle to the list of things that have held back Jerry Jeudy. He’s shown flashes, even with different QBs, but I’m convinced his numbers will make him very undervalued next season … TreQuan Smith was limited at practice, but given the hit he took on Sunday, I’ll take it. Smith is still in the concussion protocol but on track to be back in the lineup without missing a game. What you see is not always what you get with head injuries … Noah Fant is ready to play after a big hit to his ribs last week. May I recommend a better rib protector, sir? … It’s odd, but if Greg Olsen has a fascia rupture in his foot, he could come back quicker. In essence, his body may have done it’s own surgical release … Myles Garrett on the COVID list might be the best thing Carson Wentz has heard all year.