B&B 8/27/20

Return of the Black And Blue Report

I’ll be honest. In light of everyone from the NBA to Kenny Smith to teams and players around MLB walking out, I don’t know how I feel about putting out this column. You’re my readers, my subscribers, my bosses, so I feel like I owe you what I told you was coming, but know this comes in solidarity with those that are speaking out and stepping up. I hope you’ll find a way to speak your truth and walk your walk, as I type mine.

Yes, it’s football season here at the Under The Knife newsletter. You’ll note that I’m making it clear what is football content — marked B&B for the old “Black And Blue Report” from the Football Outsiders days — and what is baseball, marked UTK. For those purists of you that want one or the other, you can set up a filter or just skip when you see the subject line. Think of it as a bonus to your subscription, like those “special inserts” they used to put in magazines. Remember magazines?

I’ll be doing NFL content on Thursdays — potentially Friday, once MLB season is over — and on Sunday night. Thursday is a preview, Sunday is a quick review. Of course, there’s always Twitter for the quick stuff and who knows what else as we muddle through this pandemic season.

Let’s be clear on a couple things. The NFL is dealing with the pandemic well, largely because it is a hierarchical sport. If you’ve been watching Hard Knocks, they may have shown the testing procedures and the Rams temperature taking robot, but it’s the coaches screaming at players that makes this work. Personal responsibility works. Wear your mask, avoid contact, all the things we all could be doing are working for the NFL. Yes, it’s easier for them, but we haven’t seen the Marlins/Cardinals style breakdowns where players head out to dinner or the casino. We will, but I imagine like that Seahawks rookie who tried to sneak a girl in, they’ll be dealt with swiftly.

In the midst of this, we’ve seen the expected change in injuries. There have been very few concussions, because there’s less contact and even then, teams are holding back on the hitting. We’re seeing more concussions that come from players hitting their heads on the ground than another helmet, which is a promising sign. We’re seeing less ACL sprains, which is slightly surprising. Most of the camp ACLs are non-contact injuries, a player just making a wrong step, cutting too hard, or catching a cleat. Why we’re not seeing that in the normal numbers is a bit of a mystery.

What we are seeing are the burst injuries that we’ve seen across all sports after the pause. Players go all-out suddenly and something gives, whether that’s a hamstring, a tendon, or whatever. Replicating a full-go motion, whatever that is across positions, is going to stress the body in unusual ways, none moreso than the NFL. We’ve seen hamstrings in soccer, calves and ankles in the NBA, backs and obliques in MLB. I don’t think it will be as clearly delineated in the NFL because there are so many different positions with different demands.

The reduction in injuries does appear to be sustainable, but the timing of those injuries might be more of a problem. In a normal season, more than half of all injuries happen before Week 2 is played. With no preseason games and less injuries now, I don’t think we’re going to see injuries cut in half. That means it’s probable that we’ll see those injuries spread into the season itself, which could create some real roster worries. I think we might even see actual football trades, because it’s tougher to sign a street free agent and get them through quarantine this season. A player already passing tests can play right now, even if he doesn’t know the playbook.

There’s so much going on off the field than on the field - even if it’s a billion dollar field like SoFi or Allegiant - seems superfluous. I don’t know how to address that, so I’ll just focus on what I do, which is injuries:

LeVeon Bell RB NYJ (strained hamstring)

The Jets are just a mess right now, so when they say that LeVeon Bell is having no real issues with a mild hamstring strain, don’t just take it with a grain of salt. Get the Costco size shaker ready. Bell’s hamstring strain isn’t serious, but he is either having some issues with it lingering, or there’s some other reason that the team is playing this so conservatively, Mike Pence gave it a sideways look.

Sources tell me that Bell’s hamstring strain was considered relatively mild - “maybe Grade I+” - but that his resistance to treatment and general distrust of the staff led to some communication issues. Bell has been back at practice, but on Wednesday it “grabbed up” again and they took him out. This looks to be the pattern but it’s not a good one for anyone. Sure, LaMical Perine is looking solid as a backup, but he’s a backup and not a good handcuff candidate. (Almost no one is.)

Watch to see if the Jets shift Bell out for a few days. There’s no preseason games so aside from … well, what reason would they have to really push him back? If the Jets don’t know what they have in Bell, that’s on them. It’s not as if it’s a new QB this year so there’s timing to figure out. This is, at least from what I can tell, just the Jets being the Jets and making issues where they shouldn’t have them.

Sony Michel RB NE (sprained foot)

Trying to predict a Bill Belichick backfield is tough in any year. Without Tom Brady as an anchor, it’s even more confusing. No one knows how or even if the Patriots will adjust their playbook to account for the varying skills of Cam Newton and Jared Stidham, but simply thinking that the backfield will be it’s normal run/catch platoon is probably wrong.

For Sony Michel to get more of the workload, he’ll have to be healthy and this is one of the reasons he fell to the Pats the first place. Michel isn’t a durable, “bell cow” player; he is talented. Having him in a mix where he’s not overtaxed or taking too many hits is where he’ll be able to stay in function. This isn’t a more is better, but you’d like him to either be in for the goal line situations or to be in enough to break some bigger plays.

Michel is back at practice after missing the start of camp while recovering from his off-season foot surgery. It shouldn’t take him a long time to ramp up and as a straight-line power runner, the foot and his ability to cut are less affecting to his style and strengths. The worry is more that he’ll have a recurrence or that he’ll have his typical muscular injuries along the way.

If you’re looking to figure out Michel’s value - or James White, who appears to have the small receiving back slot on lock - you can’t just look down the roster at Rex Burkhead or the rehabbing Lamar Miller (post-ACL.) Pats teams have pulled running backs out of the air, then vanished them just as quickly. Right now, there’s no reason to think Michel doesn’t have the opportunity to be in the same role he was last year, but there’s a chance he goes either way, all the way to zero.

Jarrett Stidham QB NE (hip flexor strain)

“Hip thing” is how the Pats have described what Jarrett Stidham is dealing with. Not terribly helpful. Hip flexor strain isn’t hard to say, which is what this is. It’s not a severe strain, but there is some tearing there and bruising, so it’s a bit surprising that Stidham is out there playing on it and competing with Cam Newton - who let’s not forget is coming back from foot surgery and two previous shoulder surgeries - while he’s got this issue. It affects his throwing and his mobility, which is how he’s supposed to be competitive with Newton.

I don’t believe the quarterback platoon is more than smokescreen, but Stidham is more of a 1A to Newton than a backup. Newton is risky and always has been, but moreso at this point in his career. Stidham is, at worst, the long term plan at QB, but Belichick has moved away from those type of QBs before, perfectly willing to trade them away or to move on to someone new and presumably better. A hip flexor strain won’t be a long term concern, but as we get closer to week one, I think we’ll get more clarity on the situation there and Stidham will end up the QB2.

Kenyan Drake RB ARI (sprained foot)

“No worries, I’m good” said the tweet from Kenyan Drake, just after he was seen by Cardinals media in a walking boot. Those are never a fashion statement and while Drake and the Cards are downplaying the severity, fantasy owners who have invested heavily in the upside of the Cards RB1 are worried.

Should they be? Drake did have foot issues last year and none of the statements from Drake or others around the Cards have distanced this latest foot issue from the previous ones. Whether or not this is “precautionary,” there’s enough of a problem to take those precautions. Drake is a perfect fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, as he showed after coming over last year and making David Johnson an afterthought. The downside is that he’s also got Johnson’s durability issues.

While the foot injury doesn’t appear to have any major concerns of missing or even seeing a reduced role in the early season, we do have to wonder if it will push Kingsbury to alter either Drake’s touches or where he gets those touches. Putting him in the flats could get him more space, plus PPR points, but those kind of in-space cuts are exactly where Drake has had issues. I’m slightly down on Drake from where I see him going in drafts, but not enough that I think Chase Edmonds is worth a flyer.

Alshon Jeffery WR PHI (fractured foot)

It’s that time of year, where we all remember that Alshon Jeffery spells his name oddly and that spellcheck hates it. Jeffery had a rough year last year, as did most of the Eagles. He started with a shoulder injury and ended up needing surgery to repair a Lisfranc fracture in December. He’s eight months post, but still not back to 100 percent and time’s close to up on having him ready for Week 1.

The timeline was always going to be tight - it’s usually quoted at nine months, but we have seen players come back a bit quicker, so it’s plausible. The Eagles will have to make a decision on taking Jeffery off the PUP list, but that doesn’t make him a Week 1 starter. The PUP would cost six weeks, so the Eagles will have to decide if, like last year, Jeffery might come back in Week 3 and how valuable that roster spot is to them.

The Eagles have a couple speed guys - new pick Jaelan Raegor and a looks-healthy-so-far DeSean Jackson - plus Zach Ertz, so Jeffery retains the same role he has played in Doug Pederson’s offense of the mid-range, bigger receiver, if healthy. We’ll need too see at least some running and cutting before we can be sure he’ll fill that role, but without him, you have to knock almost everyone save Ertz in that Eagles offense.

AJ Green WR CIN (strained hamstring/sprained ankle)

Funny thing after writing all last season about A.J. Green not coming back, after saying week after week that he wasn’t coming back, is that here we are in late August 2020 and he’s still not back. An injury we were told would be six weeks, is well past a year without him doing more than running.

Calling this a simple ankle injury is likely wrong. While he did have a severe sprain, this has become a systemic issue, where the break in one supporting structure led to a cascade of issues in his leg and foot as well. Right now, his recurring hamstring strains have to be considered related to the ankle injury.

Green has barely practiced and aside from some straight line running, no one has seen Green demonstrate the skills he’s going to have to have to get back to being an NFL WR, let alone a star level player and someone who will assist Joe Burrow by being a big open target. There’s certainly still time for him to get himself ready and to show he can plant, cut, and accelerate, but Green is essentially the definition of risk right now. The way last season played out doesn’t make me feel especially good about this year.

Nick Bosa Edge SF (strained quad)

While brother Joey is on Hard Knocks and getting a big new paycheck, Nick Bosa is the better player. The only downside with Nick is that he does tend to get dinged up, even early, as we saw with him last year and during his time at Ohio State. Even in high school, the Bosas just seem to both draw and accept contact, putting more wear and tear on them than they really need. It will be interesting to see if either adjusts, or if we have a pair with top talent and a short career span.

The Niners are going lower body with this one, saying only “leg muscle.” There’s mention of speed and getting off the ball, which would indicate quad, but any mild muscle strain on Bosa at this stage is going to be a shutdown to heal that up. He’s a high motor speed-and-strength guy, not a technique player who needs to be out there on the practice field. It will be tight to get him back to 100 percent, so watch to see when he exhibits that skill. It should be easy even with limited practice access and no games to see when Bosa is back to normal.

Mike Williams WR LAC (sprained shoulder)

Mike Williams hasn’t gotten much time on Hard Knocks. They like Keenan Allen, making him seem like a top talent - and he might still be - but Williams is the one with more upside if he has a real quarterback this year. Williams had only two TD last year, with Allen only collecting six. That’s on Rivers, I know - good luck, Colts fans - but with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert in some combination, Williams won’t be stuck on short routes with safeties not having to play deep possibilities.

That makes losing Williams tougher. Williams is out at least a couple weeks with an AC sprain. There’s no word on just how it happened, but a fall on to an outstretched arm is the usual suspect. Williams needs those arms to reach for catches, to take hits, and to hand fight with defenders, with his strength and ability largely based on his physical gifts.

The shoulder will need to heal up fully before Williams can get back out there, which means the very thin receiver corps might be exposed. Austin Ekeler is likely to get more work both running and receiving, but look out for Gabe Nabers as well. The Chargers are shifting the college TE to FB and he could have an increased role over what Derek Watt did last year, especially in the passing game.

Bumps and Bruises:

Is there an upside to COVID? For Cameron Smith of the Vikings, a false positive test led to the discovery of a heart condition. He had surgery to correct it Tuesday and will miss the season, but should return in ‘21 … Late news that David Montgomery has a significant groin strain. It occurred at Wednesday’s practice. He’ll have imaging to determine how severe the strain. His status for Week 1 is in the balance … Stefon Diggs will miss some time in Buffalo (still weird to type) as he deals with a sore back. It’s not considered serious, but missing time adjusting to Josh Allen’s ball isn’t ideal … The sky is blue and Keke Coutee is hurt. The perennial promise of Coutee’s speed is offset by his inability to stay healthy, so avoid him in drafts as anything but a late lottery ticket. His latest, a stress fracture in his foot, sounds more serious than “a couple weeks” so I’ll be watching this one … Safety Grant Delpit popped his Achilles and will miss the season for the Browns … Tyrell Williams will try to play through a torn labrum. It will only hurt when he moves his arms or falls on his shoulders. That never happens to a WR, does it? I don’t expect this to go well for the Raiders WR1. Up Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow on your charts … Marcus Mariota is out with an undisclosed injury, but word from the Raiders camp is that Mariota is not looking good in the Gruden offense and might not even make the final roster. It’s Derek Carr, again, in their first Las Vegas season … Deebo Samuel is running and that’s a good sign for the Niners. Better would be running and cutting.

That’s the first Black & Blue for the season. If you have comments, questions, or anything you’d like answered, you know how to find me and I’m listening. I want to make this the most useful column for you as possible, so don’t hesitate if you have suggestions for improvement.